Through 10 games this season, the Yankees and Red Sox owned identical 5-5 records and were nestled a game behind the Blue Jays in the AL East standings. The Yankees had a run differential of +1 (30 to 29), the Red Sox were at +2 (45 to 43).
Thing have changed since then, quite dramatically. Entering games on Tuesday, the Yankees (20-8) are an astounding 10.5 games ahead of the Red Sox (10-19) in the East. The Yankees have a run differential of +49 (124 to 75) and the Red Sox are at minus-23 (95 to 118).
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New York owns a three-game lead over the Rays atop the AL East, while Boston is in last place, two games behind the Orioles. That escalated quickly, eh?
So what in the world happened? Let’s take a look.
Pitching
Red Sox: Boston has somehow gone 5-14 in a 19-game stretch in which starters Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill and Garrett Whitlock combined to post a 1.49 ERA in 13 starts covering 66 2/3 innings. Those four have been really, really good. The back end of the bullpen, though? Jake Diekman and Matt Barnes have combined for a 7.07 ERA in this stretch. How this for a bad sign? Boston relievers have a total of five saves and eight blown saves this year; five relievers have one save each, and six relievers have at least one blown save (Diekman and Hansel Robles lead the way with two each).
Yankees: Aaron Boone's pitchers have allowed 17 fewer runs than any other staff this season, so you can probably guess run prevention has been a strength during this 18-game stretch, too. They’ve allowed two or fewer runs 11 times in 18 games. Remember when Gerrit Cole struggled to start the season? Feels like a long time ago. He has a 1.31 ERA during this stretch. Nestor Cortes, who took a no-hitter into the eighth inning on Monday, has a 1.99 ERA in this stretch. Jordan Montgomery (2.78) has been solid. Jameson Taillon (2.30) too. Relievers Clay Holmes, Aroldis Chapman, Wandy Peralta, Clarke Schmidt, Michael King and Jonathan Loaisiga have combined for a 0.61 ERA in the stretch, allowing only three earned runs in 44 1/3 innings of relief. That’ll work.
Offense
Red Sox: Although they’d outscored the Yankees by 15 runs in those first 10 games, the Red Sox weren’t exactly an unstoppable offensive juggernaut to start the season, averaging 4.5 runs per game. That offense, though, has just disappeared. They’re averaging 2.63 runs per game since April 19, having scored two or fewer in 12 of the 19 games. Xander Bogaerts (.863 OPS) and J.D. Martinez (.930) have hit but they’re mostly alone. Five regulars have at least 49 plate appearances in this stretch with an OPS below .540: Trevor Story (.536), Jackie Bradley Jr. (.488), Enrique Hernandez (.491), Alex Verdugo (.331) and Bobby Dalbec (.378). Travis Shaw is 0-for-12. In their Sunday loss to the White Sox, Boston sent 11 men to the plate, and only three have a season OPS above .573. That’s … yikes. And what happened to the power? In those 19 games, the Red Sox have managed just six home runs. Six. For the season, they rank 28th of the 30 MLB teams in home runs, ahead of only the Royals and Tigers.
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Yankees: The Yankees have played 18 games since April 18. Aaron Judge has eight homers in that stretch and Anthony Rizzo has six. Think about that. TWO Yankees hitters have equaled/exceeded Boston’s team home run total over a stretch of nearly three weeks. In total, the Yankees have hit 27 home runs in those 18 games. Among Yankees with more than 30 PAs in the stretch, only Aaron Hicks has an OPS below .600, and he’s still managed to be productive, with a .370 on-base percentage, four stolen bases and eight runs scored. The Yankees are averaging 5.47 runs per game in the stretch.
So what does this mean?
Both teams will regress toward the mean a bit, obviously. If they didn’t, the Yankees would finish some 60-plus games ahead of the Red Sox.
The Yankees are not 15-wins-in-every-18-games good, but they’re good enough to win the AL East, which will almost certainly take 100-plus wins this season, with the Rays and Blue Jays capable of chasing triple-digits, too. They need sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton to stay healthy, of course. They need the guys in the rotation around Cole — Cortes, Montgomery, Taillon and Luis Severino — to remain healthy and productive. They need Joey Gallo to cease and desist with his Chris Davis impersonation (82 OPS+ and .105 average with RISP). But, yeah, they’re good.
For the Red Sox, yeah, maybe it’s time to worry. They’re 10-19 with Bogaerts, Martinez, Rafael Devers, Eovaldi, Whitlock, Wacha and Hill all performing very well, and it still feels like they’re more than a couple of players away. The AL East is rough; another bad three-week stretch would almost certainly knock them out of realistic division title contention and would probably make a wild-card run improbable, even with the extra team in the field this year.
