Shohei Ohtani’s next contract was always going to be fascinating.
The biggest point of curiosity, of course, was the final total value. No doubt, it would be the biggest in baseball history. Would he be guaranteed $500 million over the life of the deal, expected to be at least a decade in length? Maybe $600 million? Even $700 million, if a couple mega-rich owners got into an all-out bidding war?
Everything seemed to be on the table.
The debate was compelling, the final decisions riveting.
And we all still wonder about that final number, but with the revelation that Ohtani has a torn UCL — just an awful development for baseball fans everywhere — the most intriguing part of Ohtani’s next contract just might be in the details.
There will be incentives. Opt-outs. Bonuses. And maybe even a few tweaks and twists that we’ve never seen before. Not like it would be the first time Ohtani’s broken new ground.
MORE: Ohtani's Angels' run will end with no postseason berths and no compensation
Here’s a reasonable guess for his eventual contract: 10 years, $450 million guaranteed, with one year club option for $30 million and a $10 million buyout. Player opt-outs after two, four and six years. Pitching incentives totaling another $180 million, based on health.
Let’s take a look at what might go into structuring a deal like that.
Incentives For Ohtani's Next Contract
These are the team’s preferred method. If a player stays healthy and reaches levels that trigger incentives, that’s good for the team, in the short term and long term. Typically, incentives are structured around two things: benchmarks or awards.
MLB’s Basic Agreement prohibits incentives based on statistical achievement, things like batting .300 or hitting 35 home runs or striking out 200 batters. Instead, it’s all about playing time. Starting pitchers with preexisting issues (injuries, age, etc) can, for example, get bonuses for innings or games started. For hitters, different plateaus that can only be reached by staying healthy — 500 PAs, 125 games, etc. Sometimes, the benchmarks are easy to hit.
Lots of players have award incentives, things like making the All-Star team or winning an MVP or Cy Young. Even “lower” levels, like winning a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger or being named MVP of the LCS or World Series.
For Ohtani, hitting benchmarks aren’t the issue. Pitching benchmarks, though, are almost guaranteed to be part of the equation. Ohtani’s innings/starts the last three seasons …
2021: 23 starts, 130 1/3 innings
2022: 28 starts, 166 innings
2023: 23 starts, 132 innings
A speculative guess, the bonus structure would start at 80 innings, with increments of 25 to 30 innings going on up. Of course, starts could also be the preferred method, starting at 12, going to 17, 23, 28.
And these will not be small incentives. Nothing like $250,000 each. We’re talking massive pitching bonuses, millions of dollars for each increment. Enough to add tens of millions of dollars to his contract, every year, if he’s healthy and pitching.
Ohtani’s contract would likely include the award incentives, too, but that would have been the case even before this latest injury.
MORE: Tracking Ohtani's injury history
Why Ohtnai Will Have Opt-outs
An opt-out, of course, allows a player to void the rest of his contract and enter free agency.
Most likely, any contract Ohtani signed was going to include at least one opt-out, probably multiple. He’s said all the right things during his time with the Angels, but the club’s inability to even come remotely close to the postseason in his six years is something Ohtani won’t allow to happen again. He won’t lock himself into a decade with a team that, for whatever reason, goes south and into any sort of a rebuild.
Now, though, an opt-out after two seasons seems like a lock. If he does have to have Tommy John surgery, he won’t pitch in 2024, and that first season back on the mound (2025) is always a bit of a question. By the end of the 2025 season, though, Ohtani — and the rest of the baseball world — will have a good idea what kind of pitcher he can be in the years to follow.
So, two years.
Why not just sign a two-year contract and hit the free-agent market again after 2025? Doing that is a risk Ohtani doesn’t need to take. Let’s say worst-case scenario happens with his elbow, and he never again is able to be a dominant pitcher. Hitting the free-agent market after the 2025 season “just” as a hitter would decrease his value. Whatever deal he signs now will have “two-way player” baked into the salary equation.
And if some other injury happens, one that threatens to curtail his career as both a hitter and pitcher? There’s just no reason for Ohtani to bring that into the equation by signing a short-term contract. That’s exactly what opt-outs are for, from a player perspective.
Opt-outs later in the deal would be about his new team staying competitive.
MORE: Why Ohtani can still hit with elbow injury
Likely Contract Options
Opt-outs typically happen in the first half of a contract, with options at the tail end. Some are short-term, like the deal Cody Bellinger and the Cubs signed last offseason: one year plus a 2024 mutual option. Others are long, such as the one Joey Votto signed with the Reds: 10 years, plus a 2024 club option.
The three types of options …
Club option: The team decides whether to keep the player for the season in question. If the club declines, a buyout is paid.
Mutual option: Both the team and player have to agree to exercise the deal; if either side says no, the player becomes a free agent.
Player option: The player decides.
Even with the injury, Ohtani’s contract will almost certainly be for at least 8 or 9 years, for reasons explained above. It would almost certainly involve an option year or two, with a lower AAV than previous years, but a pretty high buyout number. If he's even remotely healthy heading into the option year, it would be surprising if the team declined it, just based on his marketability alone.
