Each baseball season brings a handful of surprises. Some, such as Max Muncy having 11 homers before the end of April, count as surprises even though they're not exactly shocking. Others, though, are genuine do-a-double-take eyebrow-raisers that nobody saw coming. Hello, 2023 Pirates.
Pittsburgh is off to a historically good start by Pirate-baseball standards — its hottest start in three decades, in fact. Entering play Tuesday, the Buccos are 16-7 (the best record in the National League), on a seven-game winning streak and in first place in the NL Central. Pretty good for a team expected by most observers to finish with a win total in the upper 60s and nowhere near any serious playoff talk.
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Just to hammer home the point: The Pirates' 16 wins so far are more than the Braves, Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Astros and every other 2022 playoff team except the Rays. Anyone who says they expected this is — How should I put this? Oh, yeah — lying. The Pirates believed in their talent, but few others did.
"I mean, that's always the goal, playing to the ability that you have," center fielder Bryan Reynolds told The Sporting News while the club was taking two of three in St. Louis. "And the first two weeks, I feel like we've done that, and probably surprised some people. We've just gotta keep it rolling."
But now comes the wet blanket: It's still April. Many, many teams throughout MLB history have started strong but eventually faded and settled into the talent slot we expected them to occupy before the season. So what does Pittsburgh's hot start really mean? Should be we taking the Pirates seriously? Short answer: Maybe. Longer answer: Maybe take them literally, but not seriously. I'll explain.
This isn't the first time the Pirates have started strong, or at least strong-ish. Since 2000, the team has had a winning record after 23 games nine other times, the high mark coming with a 14-9 start in 2016. But only two of those seasons ended with a postseason appearance, and 2016 wasn't one of them. But it's certainly worth pointing out that the Pirates haven't started a season 16-7 since 1992, the last year they made a serious run at a World Series. That isn't necessarily something, but it's definitely not nothing.
Despite their on-paper low-end mediocrity, the Pirates are getting it done, albeit against some not-so-intimidating opponents. Just four of their 16 wins have come against opponents with winning records. The other 12 came against the Reds, White Sox, Cardinals and Rockies. But teams can only play the opponents put before them by MLB schedulers, and even mediocre teams are supposed to beat the bad teams more often than not. And that's how the Pirates have gotten where they are: taking advantage of — even if temporarily — weaker opponents. The point is to get it done, and the Pirates are getting it done.
Pittsburgh's team OPS as of Tuesday is .765, good for eighth-best in baseball — and higher than the Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays, three expected sluggernauts — while the teams's 333 total bases ranks sixth-best in the National League.
Among the noteworthy individual performances: Connor Joe leads the team with a .357 average, a 1.097 OPS and already has been worth 1 bWAR. Reynolds, who it was reported Tuesday has agreed to an eight-year, $106.75 million extension, is plugging right along with five homers and leads the team with 18 RBIs. Andrew McCutchen, back home where it all started and apparently feeling rejuvenated, has an .888 OPS in the DH role, while young Jack Suwinski has five homers and a 1.022 OPS in just 16 games.
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On the mound, Mitch Keller has been strong as the No. 1, with a 2-0 record, a 3.64 ERA and a team-leading 30 strikeouts through five starts and 29.2 innings. Johan Oviado has been a standout in his four starts, pitching to a 2.22 ERA, while Vince Valasquez has been solid in the middle (3.76 ERA in 26.1 innings). In the bullpen, closer David Bednar has a teeny-tiny 0.82 ERA and is 8-of-9 in save opportunities.
So, yes, they're getting it done in all the ways winners are supposed to get it done. It's not been smoke-and-mirrors success so far — they've actually been good. But is it sustainable? That's the $73 million (payroll) question. And the answer is most likely found in the question.
It's not that there isn't talent. It's just that, on paper, at least, there's not enough of it. And what talent exists (excluding Reynolds now) might not make it through the season in a Pirates uniform if the team cools off and stays cool for very long, as has been the unfortunate practice in Pittsburgh of late. And, let's just be blunt, all those preseason projections were made for a reason. The roster isn't exactly stacked with on-paper elite talent. If two or three players regress to career norms and preseason expectations, the Pirates' early pleasure cruise could sink into the Allegheny pretty quickly.
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But baseball has surprised us before, with young supposed-to-be-bad teams outperforming expectations in ways that lead to meaningful games in September and October. Think the 2018 Braves or 2022 Orioles. We shouldn't be surprised, even if it's surprising.
There's a lot of baseball left in 2023. Heck, the first month isn't even over. Whether the Pirates continue down this path should soon become easier to predict. In the meantime, a first-place baseball team in Pittsburgh is a refreshing change of pace.
