With roughly six weeks left in the 2023 regular season, most starting pitchers will take eight or nine more trips to the mound. Folks, any one of possibly up to a dozen National League pitchers could grab hold of the Cy Young race with a sprint to the finish.
This isn’t like the NL MVP race (hi, Ronald Acuña!) or the AL MVP (it’s Shohei Ohtani’s world). The top WAR this year is 4.8 by FanGraphs’ formula, 4.0 with Baseball-Reference’s, and neither of those guys (Zack Wheeler and Logan Webb) are considered the top favorite to win the award. It really is amazing how open this year’s race is right now.
Some pitchers, of course, have a bit of a head start. Let’s look at six of them, then a couple thoughts on pitchers who could still make a run.
Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks
Gallen was the deserving All-Star starting pitcher for the National League, but his first four starts after the break were … good, not great. Two were technically Quality Starts (at least six innings, three or fewer runs), but he allowed at least three earned runs in all four starts and had a 5.18 ERA in that stretch. It’s not the type of stretch that crushed his chances by any means, but it did keep the door open. Gallen, who finished fifth in the Cy voting last year, leads the NL in WHIP and is top-five in pretty much every category.
Blake Snell, Padres
The 2019 AL Cy Young winner, Snell has been one of the few consistent bright spots for the Padres this season. He had a couple rough starts early, but his past 16 outings have been brilliant, with a 1.29 ERA and 2.91 FIP. Opponents are batting just .165 — 51 hits in 91 innings — with a .520 OPS. If he keeps this stretch up through the end of the season, the award will be his.
Logan Webb, Giants
If volume is your thing, Webb just might be your Cy Young winner. It’s not just Webb’s innings, though. In addition to leading the NL in that category, he has the lowest walks-per-nine innings in the NL and is a hair out of the lead for strikeout-to-walk ratio. Those are two important stats. Unlike some of the pitchers in this discussion, Webb’s ERA (3.36) and FIP (3.27) are nearly identical. Webb leads NL pitchers in bWAR.
Spencer Strider, Braves
If strikeouts are your thing, Strider absolutely is your Cy Young winner. Strider leads the majors in strikeouts — by a large margin — and is averaging 14.0 strikeouts per nine innings. He also leads the NL in Fielding Independent pitching, at 2.87. That should — but might not — counteract an ERA that’s higher than most other legitimate Cy Young contenders, at 3.57.
Justin Steele, Cubs
The lefty who calls Wrigley Field home leads the NL in ERA+, an advanced statistic that factors in things like park factors, etc. Doesn’t hurt his case that the Cubs are 16-7 when he starts and just 48-52 when anyone else takes the mound for the first inning.
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Zack Wheeler, Phillies
Wheeler’s Cy Young profile mirrors Webb’s — solid volume, stingy with walks, good at getting swing-and-misses. He’s playing in front of a defense that’s … not great (well that sounds familiar), which is a reason his FIP (3.04) is much better than his ERA (3.70). Wheeler leads all NL pitchers in fWAR.
The other potential contenders: In case anyone forgot, 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes showed he’s still capable of greatness on Thursday, tossing seven shutout innings in L.A. against the Dodgers, striking out nine and allowing only two hits to lower his ERA to 3.43. ... Sandy Alcantara hasn’t been as good this year, but he has a 2.54 ERA in his past eight starts, and in three of those he’s thrown at least eight innings and allowed 0 or 1 runs to lower his ERA to 4.11. Long shot, sure, but if he rattles off another eight-start streak like he did in the middle of last year — with a 0.99 ERA — he gets back into the convo. ... Somewhat lost in the disappointing Mets season has been a solid effort from Kodai Senga; he has a 3.19 ERA for the season, including a 2.63 ERA since the start of July. He’s made 10 starts already this year with at least 5 innings and 0/1 runs, and if he’s got five or six more of those in his pocket, he could earn a spot in the discussion. ... Merrill Kelly is third in the NL in ERA (3.13) and averaging more than a strikeout per inning (9.3 K/9), and that’s a good place to start a push. ... And let’s not count out a couple other non-Strider starters in Atlanta; both veteran Charlie Morton (3.54) and youngster Bryce Elder (3.46) have been solid, though both would need a strong finishing kick considering their FIPs of 4.00 or higher.
