When they let the kids play, the kids are often great. But there's a spectrum.
Sometimes they're great immediately. Sometimes it takes a while. Sometimes they're great for a while before becoming not so great for a time. Such is the mysterious existence of an MLB phenom.
We can look to Reds rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz and Braves reigning NL Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II for a case study of such scenarios. And they each highlight the delicate relationship between excitement and patience when evaluating elite young talent.
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The 21-year-old Cruz has been a burst of excitement for the Reds, looking like a superstar in his first two games as a big leaguer: a .429 average, already three extra-base hits, including a homer, a 1.841 OPS, 115 mph rockets (Cruz missiles?) off the bat, and elite sprint speed. He has Reds fans envisioning a new era of youth-fueled prominence, maybe even dominance, for a storied franchise that's been moribund for far too long.
Through two games, he's been exactly what they hoped he'd be, a joyful hint of what's to come over the next decade. Because idealized baseball fantasies do not care about small sample sizes. But they're what keeps fans excited, and what drives them crazy when things don't seem to go right.
Ask Braves fans about Michael Harris II about that. He was their version of Cruz when he debuted last season in late May and was, like Cruz has been so far, exactly what Atlanta fans wanted: a powerful bat, elite speed and other-worldly outfield defense. That package led to 19 homers, an .853 OPS, a 5.3 bWAR season and the NL Rookie of the Year award. It was a stellar season, but it was seen as just the beginning. What would his follow-up look like? Would he go 30-30? Could he vie for MVP?
If Harris' rookie season was fuel for fantasies, his follow-up campaign has been a cold bucket of reality.
Through 39 games, 142 plate appearances and two injuries, Harris is batting just .181 with a .552 OPS. He's hitting .167 on fastballs and .080 on off-speed pitches. His strikeout rate is 25 percent and his whiff rate on all pitches is nearly 31 percent. He's just looked off.
While his defense has remained strong, he's been worth minus-0.1 bWAR for the Braves as of Thursday. Maybe the league has figured him out and he's just been slow to adjust. Maybe those minor injuries early in the season took him off his game and his routine just enough that it's been a challenge to get back to normal. Maybe it's a little of both.
But this is where excitement, expectations and patience meet to form a necessary yet frustrating alliance.
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Harris is just 22 years old. He jumped to the majors straight from Double-A. Under normal prospect scenarios, he'd probably be in Triple-A this season, with a debut possibly coming later this summer. But he's not a normal prospect, which is why he's been in the majors for more than a year. Still, regression was inevitable.
But Harris' talent is real, and the Braves know it. That's why they gave him an eight-year, $72 million contract last season after just a few months in the bigs. The struggle won't last forever, and the turnaround might come before we know it. Wednesday night against the Mets, Harris went 3-for-4 with a double, three RBIs and a 443-foot go-ahead, game-winning homer in the eighth inning. That's a good start. To borrow and tweak an old cliche, Wednesday could've been the first day of the rest of Harris' season.
Which brings us back to Cruz. He won't hit .429 forever. The OPS won't stay above 1.000 forever. There will be slumps. There will be adjustments. There will be minor injuries. But he will almost certainly match the expectations and excitement in all the ways the Reds hope. With all the evaluation tools and analytics teams have today, it's hard to completely misjudge a top prospect.
Cruz will be good, just as Harris will be good. There are levels of "good," to be sure, but these guys are can't-miss for a reason — because they're not going to miss in the long run.
So enjoy Cruz, Harris and all the other top prospects as they make their careers as big leaguers. Expect them to wow you a lot. But also expect them to fail a lot. It's all part of the process.
Be excited and be hopeful, but be sure to keep those emotions wrapped in patience.
