The Pirates have the best kind of decision to make. But it also appears that it's gotten increasingly more difficult.
The benefit of picking at the top of the draft is that a team is guaranteed to land exactly the player it wanted from the start of the process. And the 2023 MLB Draft class features an incredible crop of players from which to pick.
The top of this year's class features Dylan Crews, considered to be one of the most well-rounded prospects the draft has seen in years. It also includes Paul Skenes, widely believed to be the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg.
And the decision might not just be between the two LSU teammates. Florida's Wyatt Langford might have the most offensive upside of any hitter in the class. Prep outfielders Max Clark and Walker Jenkins are advanced hitters for their age and could represent more affordable options at the top of the class.
MOCK DRAFT: Final 3-round edition: Will Paul Skenes or Dylan Crews go No. 1?
There are cases to be made for any of those five players to be selected first overall, with the discussion largely focusing around Crews and Skenes. Who will the Pirates select with the first pick in the 2023 MLB Draft? Sporting News is taking a look at the cases for the two LSU players, as well as the field.
Who should Pirates draft No. 1 overall?
Dylan Crews
The argument for Crews is simple: he's the best player available. At least, according to most.
Crews was originally considered a fringe first-round pick for the 2020 MLB Draft, but decided to withdraw his name from consideration and instead head straight to Baton Rouge, immediately putting his name on the map as the top college bat in the 2023 MLB Draft.
That's a lot of time under the microscope, and gives plenty of time for increased scrutiny that other prospects might not face. Yet, Crews has lived up to the hype. As a freshman, he posted a slash line of .362/.453/.663 with 18 home runs and swiped 12 bases. The next year, he slashed .349/.463/.691 with 22 home runs and five stolen bases. And as a junior, he put together his best season to date, posting a ridiculous line of .426/.567/.713 with 18 home runs, 71 walks and only 46 strikeouts.
There are no flaws in Crews' game, though there also aren't many loud traits. He has the most advanced eye at the plate of any hitter in the class and makes consistent hard contact when he chooses to swing. There's some power in his 6-foot, 205-pound frame, enough for him to be a 20-plus home run hitter in the big leagues. Crews is a plus runner, even if it hasn't always shown up on the basepaths. He's quick enough to stick in center though he could eventually move to a corner where he'd be an even better defender.
Crews' profile is a rare one for a position player. Even the most polished collegiate bats have work to do in order to reach the majors. Crews is nearly big-league ready as-is, and he could reach the pros as early as midway through next season, if not before.
For a team like Pittsburgh that is starting to see its rebuild come to fruition, Crews would be a rapid riser to joining the pros and impacting the lineup every day. When making picks at the top, teams need to consider more than just big-league depth. But with Crews, it has to be a factor given his likely rapid rise to the majors. The Pirates have Bryan Reynolds in center and could have a platoon of Henry Davis and Jack Suwinski in left or right, allowing Davis to split time between the outfield and catching and taking pressure off Suwinski to hit against lefties (82 wRC+ against lefties, 156 against righties).
How would a lineup of Crews, Reynolds, O'Neil Cruz, Davis, Suwinski, Nick Gonzales and Endy Rodriguez sound? That could be in play as early as midway through 2024.
Crews would be an expensive pick at the top of the draft because he's been expected to go there for so long. He would go over-slot and certainly set a record for largest signing bonus by several million. But for a team looking to compete as soon as next year, having a bat of his caliber in the lineup every day would make a lot of sense.
MORE: LSU baseball coach opens up about projected top picks Dylan Crews, Paul Skenes
Paul Skenes
Pitchers come with more risk than batters. There are plenty more things that can go wrong along the way, and injuries that require procedures like Tommy John surgery and that cost a player his season are far more common.
But pitchers like Skenes also rarely come along. The last two pitchers with his arsenal and pitchability were Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole, widely considered to be the two best pitching prospects of all time.
Skenes transferred from Air Force to LSU, and put together one of the best college seasons ever while pitching in college baseball's toughest conference. He posted a 1.69 ERA across 19 starts and 122.2 innings with 209 strikeouts. He walked only 20 batters and allowed only 72 hits and seven home runs.
MORE: Why Paul Skenes transferred from Air Force to LSU
The repertoire is absurd. He throws a triple-digits fastball with movement and a wipeout, upper-80s slider. The 6-6, 235-pound right-hander has a reliable changeup that has made strides in recent years though is not quite at the level of the other two offerings. Skenes showed the ability to maintain his dominance late into games, topping 120 pitches twice in the College World Series and continuing to hit triple digits when he reached those high pitch counts. He commands his arsenal extremely well, and should move quickly through the minors thanks to his advanced pitchability.
Skenes makes plenty of sense for a team on the verge of competing like Pittsburgh. Like Crews, he will not take much time in the minors, if any at all. The fastball/slider combination would already play in the majors, and with a little improvement to his changeup, he could be ready to reach his ace upside.
The Pirates have found success with their pitchers lately. Mitch Keller is an All-Star, while Johan Oviedo and Roansy Contreras have shown upside at times. They also still have Quinn Priester and Anthony Solometo dominating in the minors and establishing themselves as top pitching prospects. But Skenes would immediately become the future ace of the team, with the chance to be a top-five pitcher in the sport. Players like that don't come around too often.
Skenes would be a pricey pick at No. 1 overall given the hype that has come with him being a possible top selection, but he would likely be a slightly more inexpensive option than Crews.
Crews might be a slightly better prospect because of his high floor and the value he provides in playing every day, but Skenes has the chance to be the best pitcher in the game, giving him much higher upside.
The field
There are three other prospects that stand out as reasonable candidates to go 1-1: Wyatt Langford, Walker Jenkins and Max Clark. Anyone else would be considered to be a major reach.
Before you stop to ask why the Pirates would consider anyone else, at least consider general manager Ben Cherington's comments on picking first overall.
“We’ve heard a lot about [Crews and Skenes] and other players, too,” Cherington said, according to TribLive. “We’ve been following this whole class closely for a while. Even before we got the first pick, we knew we were going to be selecting high so going back to last summer were looking at who might be in the class and who might gravitate toward the top — and we’re still doing that. We’re still learning about all of the guys, and we think it’s a strong group. By group, I really do mean that it goes much deeper than two players.”
MORE: SN's top 100 draft prospects
The first factor to consider when debating other options at 1-1 is the cost. All the talk about the first overall pick has been about Crews and Skenes, meaning the two know they command a higher price tag. Anyone else can be signed for a cheaper deal because they will already be getting drafted higher than they were initially expected, and thus will already be receiving higher signing bonuses than their slot values at previously projected spots.
Here's a look at the 2023 slot values:
- 1st: $9,721,000
- 2nd: $8,998,500
- 3rd: $8,341,700
- 4th: $7,698,000
- 5th: $7,139,700
If a player thought they'd be getting drafted third and wind up going first to Pittsburgh, they'll be more likely to agree to a deal that's slightly underslot at first or right at slot value given that it would already be an increase of more than $1.3 million.
So if Pittsburgh drafts Langford, Clark or Jenkins, it can likely get them for slot value, or possibly below slot and save money for picks later in the draft.
The case for making Langford first overall might be stronger than the other two. He's a safer pick than drafting a prep bat. He might also have more offensive upside than Crews. Langford has more power and is a faster baserunner than Crews, and he also has a chance to stay in center, though like Crews, he'll probably need to be shifted over to a corner. The hit tool isn't as refined as Crews' but the Pirates would be getting a middle-of-the-order hitter with 30/30 potential nearly ready to make a major offensive impact.
The prep bats both have the same argument: they'd be considerably cheaper while still coming with tons of upside. Clark is a faster, more defensive-oriented prospect. He has a standout hit tool with the potential for more power in his 6-1, 190-pound frame. He's one of the fastest players in the draft, and unlike the other three outfielders in this spot, he's all but guaranteed to stick in center field.
Jenkins is a more developed hitter with tons of raw power and a refined approach to the plate that put him among the most advanced prep bats in the class. Jenkins is likely to move to right, but his speed and arm strength will make him a standout defender in the corner.
In any other year, Langford, Clark and Jenkins would each appear to be shoo-ins for the first overall selection. It's just that this year, they're going up against two prospects who are among the best to ever enter the draft. But that doesn't mean they won't go first overall. The MLB draft has other considerations beyond just the best players available, and with the talent among the top five picks, there is really no wrong answer for Pittsburgh's 1-1 dilemma.
