The slate of games this weekend, the final weekend of the first month of the season, is rather fascinating. Two series in particular stand out because, frankly, the teams involved have not played nearly to the level of expectations — internal or external — heading into the year.
The Astros host the Phillies in a showdown of 2023 World Series participants, and the Dodgers host the Cardinals in a West Coast clash between two playoff regulars. Houston (14-11) just recently wrestled free from .500’s clingy grip, while the Dodgers (13-12) and Phillies (12-13) are still tethered to that middling line. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (9-16) are stuck gazing longingly up at every team not currently pulling a Tom Petty (y’know, free fallin’).
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The openers for both series are on Apple TV, with Phillies-Astros starting at 8 p.m. ET and the Cardinals-Dodgers kicking off at 10 p.m. ET.
Even with the struggles, though, all four teams have long-term reason for optimism, so that’s what we’re going to focus on today. No reason to enter the weekend on a down note, eh?
Phillies
The story in Philadelphia to this point of the season has mostly been about the players not on the field more than those actually playing. Phenom prospect Andrew Painter was supposed to compete for a rotation spot this spring, but he got hurt, and so did Ranger Suarez, who was expected to be Philly’s No. 3 starter again in 2023. Veteran first baseman Rhys Hoskins was lost for the year this spring, and then his replacement, Darik Hall, landed on the IL for a couple of months, too. Oh, and some guy named Bryce Harper is working his way back from Tommy John surgery.
Reason for optimism No. 1: Harper’s reportedly pretty darn close to returning sooner than anyone could have reasonably expected, and he’s learning a new position — first base — too. If he’s ready to be his typical impact bat in the lineup, that’s a huge boost for the offense, not to mention the clubhouse. The Phillies will have a better feel for his timeline in early May. Suarez is progressing nicely, too. He made his first rehab appearances on Thursday.
Reason for optimism No. 2: So many of the young stars who were key to Philly’s run through October last year are off to great starts, building on what they established last postseason. Second baseman Bryson Stott is batting .343, center fielder Brandon Marsh has a .435 on-base percentage and Alec Bohm, who’s filling in at first, leads the team with 20 RBIs. And veteran Nick Castellanos, who struggled mightily in 2023, his first year in Philly, is batting .333 with 16 RBIs and a 154 OPS.
Astros
There hasn’t really been anything WRONG, just a lot of little things that didn’t go quite right in the first couple of weeks of the season. Jose Altuve’s still out with the broken thumb suffered in the WBC, and veterans Jose Abreu and Alex Bregman have struggled a bit at the plate. Starters Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy had a couple of rough outings, too. But, yeah, shutting out the Rays on back-to-back days in Florida was a sign the ship is righting.
Reason for optimism No. 1: Look, we’re not saying that Hunter Brown replaced Justin Verlander because that feels too loaded. It’s just that Verlander was the only Houston pitcher with more than 12 starts who is not back this year, and Brown has filled that absence nicely. The rookie already has three starts of at least seven shutout innings, which certainly feels very Verlander-esque, and if he’s going to be that guy all year, slotted into a stacked rotation with Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy, the Astros are going to be just fine, thank you.
Reason for optimism No. 2: Altuve is progressing nicely from that broken thumb, with a recovery that’s ahead of the initial two-months-or-more timetable. And veteran Michael Brantley is already on his rehab assignment, too.
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Cardinals
It’s been a mess, no doubt. The club broke camp with too many outfielders, for starters, and trying to find regular at-bats for five players quickly became an issue. But maybe more than that was the pitching staff, especially a rotation that seemed thoroughly solid (though maybe unspectacular) but has often looked very, very hittable. Sprinkle in a lack of timely hitting and ill-timed defensive miscues from a solid defensive team, and you have a 10-16 start.
Reason for optimism No. 1: Folks, second-year slugger Nolan Gorman is becoming a star. Nobody doubted his power or his talent level, but he often looked overmatched at the plate during his rookie season. An offseason of hard work, though, and a revamped swing have him getting to a lot of the pitches he missed last year, and maybe more importantly laying off a lot of the pitches he chased as a rookie. He leads the club in just about every offensive category, including home runs (six), RBIs (22), slugging (.566) and OPS+ (159).
Reason for optimism No. 2: They’re too talented to play this poorly for long. The lineup still has Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, along with Gorman and WBC star Lars Nootbaar, who missed a handful of games on the IL but is back now. Jordan Hicks was awful out of the bullpen, but he hasn't allowed an earned run in his last four outings, with 11 strikeouts and just one walk in 4 2/3 innings pitched. The starters should be better, more in line with their career track records. For example, Miles Mikolas had a 10.05 ERA through his first three starts, was better in his next two and then threw 6 1/3 shutout innings on Thursday to salvage the finale of the series in San Francisco. Having Adam Wainwright back should be a boost, on the mound and in the clubhouse.
Dodgers
I’ve written this before, but the ceiling for these Dodgers is a bit lower than previous years, in terms of regular-season win totals. If they’re healthy in October, a World Series title is possible, but over a longer period this is not a squad that’s going to win 105-plus. They lost Trea Turner, Justin Turner and Tyler Anderson in the offseason, among others, then Gavin Lux to an injury this spring. The replacements — older veterans J.D. Martinez, David Peralta, Miguel Rojas and Jason Heyward — were not the equal of the players missing, and that showed early in the 2023 season. The Pirates looked like a much better team in Pittsburgh this week, where LA lost two of three.
Reason for optimism No. 1: For starters, Tony Gonsolin made his 2023 debut on Wednesday. He wasn’t necessarily sharp on a limited pitch count, but he emerged healthy, which was the key after the team had to rush him back a bit to fill in for other rotation injuries. If he gets back to anything like what he’s been his entire career — a 2.51 ERA in 272 2/3 innings — that’ll be a big improvement in the rotation.
Reason for optimism No. 2: The Dodgers look like they have a legitimate star in rookie James Outman, who has seven homers, 19 RBIs, a 179 OPS+ and already a 1.3 bWAR through just 25 games this season. In 125 minor-league games last year, split pretty evenly between AA and AAA, Outman hit 31 homers, 31 doubles, 106 RBIs and 13 stolen bases, to go with a .978 OPS. He already has eight multi-hit games and two multi-homer games this year. And some of the struggling hitters are showing signs of life, like Chris Taylor and his 3-for-4, 3 RBI performance in the club's lone win in Pittsburgh.
