Will Clayton Kershaw retire? Latest news, updates on Dodgers ace's MLB future after 2023 season

Clayton Kershaw is going to be enshrined in Cooperstown at some point in the future. That much is a certainty. When he decides to hang up his cleats, however, is anything but.

The Dodgers' longtime ace was demolished by the Diamondbacks in Game 1 of the NLDS as his playoff struggles continued. That start put Los Angeles in an early hole that the team could not climb out of, as Arizona swept L.A. in the series. With the Dodgers' season coming to an end, there will be questions about Kershaw's future.

Kershaw signed a one-year deal before the 2023 season, meaning he's headed into free agency for a second straight year. Kershaw was outstanding during the campaign, but it's fair to speculate about his future given his age, a shoulder injury he battled through in the second half and his lack of a contract for next season.

Will the 2023 campaign be Kershaw's final year in baseball? Here's what you need to know.

MORE: Kershaw's postseason stats

Will Clayton Kershaw retire?

Kershaw's playoff outing against the Diamondbacks stands out, but the questions have been out there all season. In July, Kershaw opened up about the possibility of calling it a career after the 2023 campaign. 

“I have four kids, a wife, I have so many factors when it comes to baseball," Kershaw said, according to USA Today. “I don’t want to diminish how much I like playing here, but I’m at a point where I have to take everything in consideration. I’m weighing a lot of factors. It might take a few months after the season to make a decision. 

“Last year was easy for me to come back. This year, I honestly have no idea."

And as the season has gone on, the answers haven't come any easier. Kershaw said in September before the playoffs began that the focus was entirely on trying to win in 2023 and that "all the personal stuff is kind of out the door," according to The Los Angeles Times.

"You always think about last homestand, last playoffs, all that," Kershaw said. "But I came to peace with it a long time ago."

Following the Dodgers' unexpectedly early elimination, Kershaw remained vague about his plans. 

#Dodgers Clayton Kershaw was asked multiple times about his future. He responded the same way every time, "I'm not sure." Asked him if he needs to address issues with his shoulder this offseason. Same answer. "I'm not sure."

— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) October 12, 2023

Kershaw has played on back-to-back one-year deals with the idea of giving himself flexibility in making a decision about his future, rather than committing to a long-term deal. Per The Los Angeles Times, he only intends to sign one-year contracts the rest of his career to continue to provide himself with that window to retire at any point.

MORE: Full 2023 MLB playoff schedule, bracket

How old is Clayton Kershaw?

Kershaw is 35 years old. Born March 19, 1988, he would turn 36 during spring training next year. 

That's hardly ancient, particularly for a left-handed pitcher, but it's worth keeping in mind that Kershaw made his MLB debut in 2008, about two months after his 20th birthday. The 2023 season is his 16th in the majors. 

Clayton Kershaw injury timeline

There are reasons to believe Kershaw could retire at any point. For one thing, he's been battling injuries constantly for the past several years. His 131.2 innings in 2023 were his most since 2019, and he's had some ailment or another nearly every year.

In 2016, he battled back pain and had tightness in his back again in 2017. He had biceps tendinitis in 2018 and more back pain, then had shoulder injuries in 2019. He re-injured his back again in the COVID-shortened 2020 season.

Kershaw missed time in 2021 with forearm inflammation and was placed on the injured list for a stint in 2022 for back pain. He missed nearly a month and a half in 2023 due to shoulder pain, and though he returned in August, he did not pitch over five innings or throw over 84 pitches in any outing.

Clayton Kershaw stats

Effectiveness has certainly not been a question with Kershaw. He has posted an ERA above 2.73 just twice since turning 30 in 2018. This year, he's posted an ERA of 2.46, which is below his career average of 2.48.

He has lost quite a few ticks on his fastball. According to FanGraphs, he averaged 93.6 mph on his fastball in 2015, and was as high as 91.6 in 2020. But it has been 90.7, 90.8 and 90.8 mph over the past three seasons. And coming back from that injury, he averaged 89.4 mph.

Kershaw has mitigated the impact of his diminished velocity by using the fastball less. He used it as often as 53.9 percent in 2015. that number was down to just 37.2 percent in 2023, the second-lowest rate of his career. The pitch in 2023 had a value of 1.7 after it was as high as 37.8 in 2013 and consistently around the 20-point range during the first half of the 2010s.

Still, when he's been on the mound, it's hard to argue against the results. It's why if Kershaw decides to come back, the Dodgers — or someone else — will certainly jump at the opportunity to do so.