One of the very best parts of every baseball season is watching the players who exceed expectations. They’re the guys who, for whatever reason — could be injuries, could be youth, could be lack of opportunity — haven’t been able to live up to their potential.
Until they do.
Think back to last year. Who thought Andrés Giménez would finish sixth in the AL MVP voting. And who thought that Spencer Strider would turn in on of the best strikeout seasons ever by a right-handed pitcher? Who would have guessed that Nestor Cortes would become one of the most reliable starters in the bigs? Not you, probably. But here’s a bet that Andrés, Spencer and Nestor knew what they were capable of.
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So we’re going to take a spin around the majors, looking for one player from each team capable of, as they say, taking it up a notch and becoming a star — or, a bigger star — in 2023.
Today: The National League West
Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll
Let’s just say this: If the Diamondbacks’ crop of second-year outfielders builds on solid 2022 debuts, the D-backs could be a sneaky wild-card contender (also, if vets like Madison Bumgarner regain their form). Rising could-be stars Alek Thomas (1.4 bWAR) and Jake McCarthy (2.4 bWAR) would get the nod here for most teams, but here Carroll is the clear choice. There’s a reason most every publication that ranks prospects has him either No. 1 or No. 2 on their overall lists. In 115 plate appearances last year — keeping him eligible for the NL Rookie of the Year award this season — Carroll had an .830 OPS, with four homers, two stolen bases and a 1.1 bWAR.
Last year before his call-up, Carroll played 93 total games at Double-A and Triple-A and produced 24 homers, 31 stolen bases, a .425 on-base percentage and 1.036 OPS, with 22 doubles and eight triples, too. If he’s healthy and enjoys a solid spring, he’s projected to hit leadoff for the D-backs.
Dodgers: Dustin May
The kid with all the red hair made his big league debut way back in 2019, and it’s kinda hard to believe that, with his stuff, he hasn’t already made that true full-season breakthrough. But his second season was the 60-game pandemic schedule, and then his 2021 season was cut short, after only five starts — and a 2.74 ERA — when he needed Tommy John surgery. He didn’t make it back onto a big league mound until late August 2022.
In three of his six starts, he was brilliant — 0.56 ERA in 16 innings — but his other three weren’t great — 9.00 ERA in 14 innings. Mostly, the Dodgers were just glad he showed he was healthy, and he still showed the ability to miss bats, with 29 strikeouts in 30 innings. This year, the Dodgers would love to see him stay healthy for a full season, because he’s the type of pitcher who could get into that Cy Young conversation along with Julio Urias. And they kinda need it, too, because the rotation isn’t as deep as it’s been in years past.
Padres: Nick Martinez
Nick Martinez was an essential piece of the San Diego pitching staff last year, making 10 starts, 37 relief appearances and even earning eight saves when a closer was needed. But when he signed his three-year deal to stay with the Padres this offseason, those days ended. Now, he’s Nick Martinez, MLB starter. And he’ll get a taste of that as a starter for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, which is a nice way to prepare for the season.
All of his starts last year came in the first half, and that was his first taste of MLB life since 2017, remember. He pitched in Japan from 2018 to 2021, turning in a 1.62 ERA in 23 starts in 2021. With a full year of adjustments under his belt — and a brilliant postseason run, with only three hits and one run allowed in seven appearances covering 11 innings — expect him to shine as a full-time member of the Padres’ starting staff.
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Giants: Joey Bart
This isn’t really a prediction that Bart will finally break through, but if he doesn’t, this feels like potentially his last season with the Giants. The club has already told him that he’s no longer the definite starter at catcher, even though as this February article in The Athletic points out, the Giants don’t exactly have other great options. So the question is this: Can Bart finally get a handle on his immense toolset — he was the No. 2 overall pick in 2018 out of Georgia Tech and a regular on top prospect lists through his time in the minors — and become a productive big league hitter? Because, yeah, that hasn’t happened yet.
The sample size isn’t huge, but it’s not promising. He has 408 career plate appearances in the bigs, with an OPS+ of 81 — 19 points below the MLB average — to go with 11 homers and a .294 on-base percentage. He has power, but contact has been an issue. His career strikeout rate of 38 percent (155 in 408 PAs) just isn’t acceptable, even in this era. But, he’s only 26 and, yeah, has tools on tools on tools. If he does figure it out, he could be a huge boost.
Rockies: Kris Bryant
Yep, he’s the only guy to make these lists with an MVP on his resume. But consider this as his breakthrough year with the Rockies. Did you know that, in his limited time as a healthy player in 2022, his first year after signing a seven-year, $182 million contract with Colorado, that he actually hit .306 with a .376 on-base percentage and 127 OPS+? He’s looked good this spring — and by that, we mean healthy — and it could be fun to see him with a healthy season in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains.
Oh, and Ezequiel Tovar could wind up being the club’s best player by the end of the season. The 21-year-old just oozes talent.
