Hall of Famer Early Winn pitched 23 seasons in the American League and missed one while serving in the military during World War II.
The right-hander led the AL in ERA one time, in 1950. His 3.20 mark that season was not the best of his career. Not even close, actually. Over a three-year stretch a few years later, from 1954-56, his “worst” ERA was a tidy 2.82. In those three years, he finished fourth (2.73), third (2.83) and third (2.82). He finished with an ERA lower than 3.20 seven times.
But he led the AL in 1950 because, well, opportunity.
Why is this relevant now? Excellent question.
Gerrit Cole leads the AL with a 3.03 ERA. It’s not the best of his career. Not even close, actually. Cole finished at 2.50 in 2019 — leading the AL — 2.60 in 2015 and 2.88 in 2018. In the pandemic-shortened season, he had a 2.84 ERA in 12 starts.
Cole did not win the Cy Young award in any of those seasons. He’s finished second twice and fourth twice. He’s also finished fifth and ninth.
But sometimes, when it comes to ERA titles and Cy Young awards, it’s all about opportunity. And Gerrit Cole has an outstanding opportunity to win his first Cy Young award this season. He’s the betting favorite, but he hasn’t locked anything up just yet.
Let’s take a closer look at Cole and his challengers.
MORE RACES: NL MVP | AL MVP | NL Cy Young
Gerrit Cole, Yankees
Cole doesn’t just lead the AL in ERA. He also leads in bWAR (4.6) and innings (160 1/3). If you’re looking for a starting place to find a common thread with Cy Young winners in history, you could do worse than picking guys who led the league in ERA and innings. And just like this isn’t the best ERA of his career, it’s not his best FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of his career, either, at 3.46. That’s sixth in the league. The reason for the drop is connected to his drop in strikeouts, from an average of 12.4 per nine from 2018-22 to 9.5 this season.
But even with that drop, Cole is all over the AL pitching leaderboards, second in H/9 (7.24), third in strikeouts (170), tied for third in WPA (2.8) and second in Adjusted ERA+ (140). He’s still the favorite to win the award, but he’ll need to bounce back from his last start, when he gave up six earned runs in four innings at home vs. Boston. If that’s a hiccup and not the new normal, he should get the trophy.
MORE: Cole at a loss to explain Yankees' woes
Kevin Gausman, Toronto
Toronto’s ace leads the AL in WAR by FanGraphs’ formula, at 4.4. He also leads the league in strikeouts per nine (11.7) and is stingy with the walks and home runs, and his FIP of 2.84 is second in the league. The right-hander has been pretty much everything the Jays could have hoped for when they gave him a 5-year, $110-million contract to cross the border shortly after the 2021 season. Like Cole, his last start was less-than-memorable, allowing five earned runs (and two unearned) in 5 1/3 innings in a loss to the Phillies. He’s been brilliant often this season, with seven starts of at least six full shutout innings and seven more starts with at least six innings and either one or two runs allowed.
Luis Castillo & George Kirby, Mariners
The two right-handers opened the week with identical 3.23 ERAs, but different paths to get to that number. Castillo is averaging nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings — he’s fourth overall in the AL — as he’s continued to be exactly what the Mariners hoped for when they made the deal with Cincinnati last summer. He was brilliant again on Monday, allowing just five hits and one run in seven innings in yet another Seattle win. Kirby might not miss as many bats as Castillo, but he almost never misses the strike zone unintentionally. His walks-per-nine, at 0.8, is easily the best mark in the AL, and naturally his K/BB ratio of 9.50 is best in the league, too.
Shohei Ohtani, Angels
If you had to pick one pitcher to start the most important game of the season on full health, there are a lot of folks in baseball who would pick Shohei Ohtani. He’s that dominating, and his stuff is that electric. But it’s still a little tough to see him winning the Cy Young trophy because the Angels have used a six-man rotation to give him an extra day of rest. So at this point, Ohtani’s made 22 starts, whereas others in this conversation have made 25 or 26. Still, he warrants a spot at the table. He leads the AL in fewest hits per nine (5.9) and lowest opponents’ batting average (.185; Castillo is second at .216), and he’s still tied for third in bWAR despite the innings gap.
He hasn’t allowed an earned run in his past three starts (19 innings) but he has taken a little break on the mound to rest a tired arm. He’s tentatively supposed to return to pitching on Wednesday.
The other potential candidates: Framber Valdez felt like one of the most unflappable starters in baseball, and he was right up there with Cole not long ago. His last three starts for the Astros, though, knocked him back in the race — 15 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings, bumping his ERA up to 3.55 and his FIP to 3.51. ... Even though the Twins will likely finish with fewer wins than any other AL team, there’s a reason teams should fear them in October. Two, actually. Pablo Lopez is tied for the AL lead in strikeouts (187), to go with a 3.51 ERA and 3.17 FIP. And Sonny Gray has a 3.15 ERA, to go with an AL-best 2.87 FIP. ... He doesn’t have much of a shot at actually winning, but is Kyle Bradish the most under-appreciated starter in the AL? He has a 3.03 ERA/3.56 FIP in 23 starts for the Orioles.
