"It's concluded, unfortunately."
Those words from Yankees general manager Brian Cashman may haunt the Yankees and their fans for years to come. Cashman spoke them on Opening Day, after the Yankees and Aaron Judge were unable to come to an agreement on a new contract ahead of the season, tabling extension discussions. Cashman added Judge would be on a one-year deal with a "yet to be determined number."
That number will begin to be determined Friday, as Judge and the Yankees have their arbitration hearing. The Yankees filed Judge's salary at $17 million, whereas Judge and his agent Page Odle filed for $21 million. Both sides will present their case, and likely hear within a matter of days what Judge is to be paid for this season.
For an extra wrinkle: While 2022 Aaron Judge is undoubtedly worth $21 million (and significantly more), the arbitrator must make the decision independent of Judge's 2022 stats. That means the insane season he's had -- punctuated with a walk-off hit the night before his hearing -- is going to be disregarded during the hearing.
Walk it off, BAJ 👨⚖️ pic.twitter.com/GY9BOMA9hi
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) June 24, 2022
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What is arbitration in MLB terms?
If players and a team cannot agree on a salary for the season, then arbitration occurs. During the arbitration process, the team and player both set respective numbers, and meet on a pre-appointed date.
When they meet with the arbitrator, the team and player both lay out cases for their numbers, and the arbitrator will rule in favor of the player or team. In Judge's case, with the numbers being set at $17 million or $21 million, the arbitrator must rule concretely in one party's favor -- they do not meet in the middle at $19 million.
When do players become eligible for arbitration?
After three years of major league service time, players are eligible for arbitration in MLB. Some teams, perhaps most notably the Braves, have been eschewing arbitration by signing players to long-term contracts before it becomes a factor. Others avoid arbitration by settling on a number before the hearings.
After six years of service time, players become free agents. Judge's rookie year, for example, was in 2017 -- even though he debuted in 2016. He and the Yankees avoided arbitration in 2020 and 2021 with one-year deals.
Why is arbitration occurring during the season?
It isn't the norm for hearings to occur during the regular season, but the lockout forced both sides' hands on arbitration. Normally, the number has to be agreed upon by mid-January and hearings occur throughout February during spring training. With the lockout in place, however, both sides agreed to set March 22 as a date for arbitration avoidance, and allowed hearings to take place in-season.
Aaron Judge stats for 2021 and 2022
Judge was impressive in 2021, but in 2022 he has been utterly absurd. Here's a look at his numbers year over year.
| Year | G | BA | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SO | BB |
| 2021 | 148 | .287 | .373 | .544 | 39 | 98 | 158 | 75 |
| 2022 | 68 | .304 | .379 | .658 | 27 | 53 | 74 | 34 |
As we near the midpoint of the season, Judge is approaching 30 home runs, five more than second-place slugger Yordan Alvarez. His OPS is over 1.000, and above all, he's been clutch. His heroics Thursday were just his latest walk-off hit, and earlier in the week he homered over the catwalk in Tampa Bay. He's doing things no other player in baseball is doing, so it's hard to look at him independent of this season.
Aaron Judge hit the ball over the catwalk at the Trop 😳
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) June 23, 2022
(via @YESNetwork)pic.twitter.com/URSFQ6FLHi
In 2021, while he was impressive, Judge never got the buzz he's getting this year. Part of that is due to the utter brilliance of Shohei Ohtani, who sucked up all the air in the room of AL MVP discussion last season. Part of that is due to the fact the Yankees weren't the juggernaut they appear to be this year, even with several net negatives in the lineup.
While Judge's numbers were strong in their own right last season, this year he's taken things to a different level. It's hard not to look ahead and wonder what his next contract will look like, independent of what the outfielder makes this year.
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Who would Aaron Judge's salaries compare to?
With the Yankees filing for $17 million, here's a look at who Judge's 2022 salary would compare to should the arbitrator favor the Yankees:
- Mike Moustakas -- $16 million
- Marcell Ozuna -- $16.25 million
- Wander Franco -- $16.5 million
- Jose Abreu - - $16.66 million
- Evan Longoria -- $16.66 million
- Miles Mikolas -- $17 million
- Seiya Suzuki -- $17 million
- Madison Bumgarner -- $17 million
- Lance McCullers -- $17 million
- Liam Hendriks -- $18 million
- Charlie Blackmon -- $18 million
- Eric Hosmer -- $18 million
If the arbitrator favors Judge, his $21 million salary for 2022 would compare to:
- Hyun-Jin Ryu -- $20 million
- Nick Castellanos -- $20 million
- Alex Bregman -- $20 million
- Xander Bogaerts -- $20 million
- Jose Ramirez -- $20.14 million
- Salvador Perez -- $20.5 million
- Yu Darvish -- $21 million
- Matt Olson -- $21 million
- Carlos Rodon -- $22 million
- Kevin Gausman -- $22 million
- J.D. Martinez -- $22 million
At a glance, it's easy to say Judge belongs in the second tier of players. His value to the Yankees goes beyond the box score. His jersey peppers Yankee Stadium -- and any stadium the Yankees visit -- and he's been an integral part of any Yankees success recently. But the decision ultimately is the arbitrator's hands.
