Rotation depth matters in the World Baseball Classic.
That sounds obvious, of course, but it was very much on display the last time the WBC was staged, back in 2017 (the scheduled 2020 tournament was scrapped because of the pandemic). The United States won its first WBC title, thanks in large part to Marcus Stroman’s brilliant performance in the title game, limiting Puerto Rico to just one hit in six shutout innings.
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But Stroman wasn’t the only starter from the United States to make an impact. Danny Duffy made two starts and allowed just one earned run in eight innings. Chris Archer made one start, turning in four no-hit shutout innings. Drew Smyly made one start, allowing only a single unearned run in 4 2/3 innings. Tanner Roark struggled in his early relief appearance, but threw four shutout innings in his start in the USA’s semifinal win over Japan.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best rotations heading into the 2023 World Baseball Classic. It’s hard to know exactly how pitchers will perform — most are not used to throwing important innings in mid-March — but based on past performances, here’s a look at the seven best rotations for the 2022 WBC.
7. Puerto Rico
Rotation options: Jose Berrios, Marcus Stroman, Hector Santiago, Dereck Rodriguez
Why they’re here: Selfishly, I’m hoping Berrios gets the start for Puerto Rico vs. the Dominican Republic on March 15 so he can face off with teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Stroman had a 2.35 ERA in three starts for Team USA in the 2017 WBC, and it’s a bit ironic that his brilliant title game showing in 2017 was vs. Puerto Rico, the team he’s pitching for this year. There isn’t enough depth after Berrios and Stroman to rank this group higher, though.
6. South Korea
Rotation options: Kwang-Hyun Kim, Eui-Lee Lee, Hyeong-Jun So, Been Gwak, Chang-Mo Koo
Why they’re here: Kim was solid in his two years in MLB — 2.97 ERA in 145 2/3 innings — then posted a 2.13 ERA in 28 starts back in the KBO last season. Koo is another lefty with a minuscule ERA last year, 2.10 in 19 starts, with a 8.7 K/9 ratio. Lee (20), So (21) and Gawk (23) are young starters on the rise, with a couple of KBO seasons under their belts already.
5. Mexico
Rotation options: Julio Urias, Jose Urquidy, Patrick Sandoval, Taijuan Walker, Adrian Martinez
Why they’re here: I know what you’re thinking: “Look at all those stud pitchers. This group should be ranked higher than fifth!” And, yeah, I would agree, but which team do you drop? The pitching is so very solid in the WBC. I can’t help but almost feel sorry for the non-MLB hitters trying to establish themselves in this tournament.
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4. USA
Rotation options: Clayton Kershaw, Miles Mikolas, Brady Singer, Lance Lynn, Adam Wainwright, Merrill Kelly
Why they’re here: If we were picking the best rotation to weather a 162-game season, the USA would probably get the nod. But in a short tournament like the WBC, where missing bats might be an important factor, the U.S. rotation sits just a notch behind the top three groups.
3. Venezuela
Rotation options: Pablo Lopez, Martin Perez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Luis Garcia, German Marquez, Carlos Hernandez
Why they’re here: Venezuela has four starters who are at or near the top of their team’s rotation, and the one who isn’t — Garcia — only isn’t because the Astros are so very stacked. In 57 career starts, Garcia has a 3.57 ERA, and his five shutout innings of relief in the ALDS vs. the Mariners last October shows that he does like the big stage. Lopez, the new Twins ace, was highly coveted on the trade market. Perez was brilliant for the Rangers last year. Rodriguez was solid for Detroit, though he spent a few months on the IL before finishing strong. And Marquez has managed to build a solid career as a starter for the Rockies — seven years, career 4.01 FIP — which is no small task.
MORE: How many MLB players are in the WBC? Here’s a breakdown by MLB team
2. Dominican Republic
Rotation options: Sandy Alcantara, Cristian Javier, Johnny Cueto, Roansy Contreras
Why they’re here: The rotation starts with the NL Cy Young winner and then moves to the guy who threw six no-hit innings in his lone World Series start last fall. Yeah, that’ll play. And then you add Cueto, the veteran who was at his crafty best for the White Sox last year — and is Alcantara’s teammate in Miami in 2023 — and Contreras, who had a 3.81 ERA in his 18 starts for the Pirates last year, but nobody noticed because, well, Pittsburgh.
I’m not ranking the bullpens, but holy hell the D.R. relievers have to be mentioned here, because no starter will be asked to go more than five innings with a group that includes Bryan Abreu, Camilo Doval, Rafael Montero, Génesis Cabrera, Diego Castillo, Carlos Estévez, Yimi Garcia, José Leclerc, Héctor Neris and Gregory Soto. That’s seriously borderline unfair.
1. Japan
Rotation options: Shohei Ohtani, Yu Darvish, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Shota Imanaga
Why they’re here: There isn’t much clarity on exactly how Ohtani will be used in the WBC, only that there are no restrictions from the Angels. It’s been suggested that maybe he’s a closer, but they’ll want his bat in the lineup as DH, and it would be hard to properly warm up to pitch the ninth if you’re running the bases in the seventh or eighth. So maybe a start or two makes more sense. Even if he doesn’t start at all, though, this is an impressive rotation. Darvish, of course, is an all-timer, and he’s glad to be back in the WBC for the first time since 2009. I’ve talked a bit about Sasaki, the 21-year-old with unhittable stuff. And Yamamoto? He might be Japan’s best starter. He had a 1.39 ERA in 26 starts in 2021, and a 1.68 ERA in 26 starts last year. He’s just 24. And the lefty Imanga, he posted a 2.04 ERA in 24 starts. Japan won the WBC title in 2006 and 2009, then finished third in both 2013 and 2017. This rotation has the stuff to bring the championship back to Japan.
