Wells Fargo Championship 2023 betting guide: Our on-site PGA expert handicaps the tournament and lists three specific hidden skills needed to win every bet this weekend

Pay close attention to the betting content you read this week. If your source refers to 2022 in comparison to his/her predictions for 2023, stop reading! The Wells Fargo Championship was not played in Charlotte, North Carolina at the Quail Hollow Club last year. It was played at a different venue while Quail Hollow prepared for the Presidents Cup in the fall.

The tournament was also played away from the Queen City in 2017 when Quail Hollow was closed for a course renovation and Brian Harman won in Wilmington. To get ten years worth of QHC events we have to go back 13 years to 2010 when Rory Mcilroy won his first of three Wells Fargo Championships.

Always a premiere event on the PGA TOUR, the status of the tournament was designated in the offseason. Twenty million dollars is on the line for a field of 156 players. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend and compete for a first place check of $3.6 million dollars. Quail Hollow is a major championship venue having hosted the 2017 PGA Championship won by Justin Thomas.

The fans are missing Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler this week as they decided to skip this tournament. Probably gaining some rest for the 105th PGA Championship in two weeks at famed Oak Hill Country Club, I doubt many are missing the two of them as they have combined for six wins so far this season and five in the elite events to date.

Wells Fargo Championship 2023: Odds

Odds are from BetMGM

Wells Fargo Championship: Course conditions

I have walked all 18 holes and can report on the current conditions. Quail Hollow is a little soft. It is easy to discern after my trip here in September to cover the Presidents Cup. The course in the fall was extremely firm and fast. The Charlotte region received 6.5” of rain in April and 2.66” last Friday. Excellent preparation has helped to dry out the playing surfaces, but it is still soft underneath. This is key, because Quail Hollow is an enormous layout.

• The par-71, 7,538-yard course covers a 5.2 mile walk. 
• Speaking of miles, the final three holes are referred to as the 'Green Mile.'
• Sixteen, 17, and 18 play nearly a stroke over par as a group, and make finishing every round extremely difficult.
• Sixty-one bunkers cover the course and there are seven holes where water comes into play.

The average winning score over the last 10 editions at Quail Hollow is 13 under par. The historic cutline during that same decade is one over par. With all of that rain in April — and considering the temperature rose above 65 degrees on 25 days last month — the Green Mile and everywhere else on property is really green. The softness won’t help the holes play any shorter. Thankfully the forecast for this week has very little rain and temperatures predicted in the mid 70s with mild wind.

Watching everyone prepare to play this huge hilly terrain you see some common themes. Players are practicing their driver and long iron approaches. I understand why they feel the need to get both of those aspects of their game in order, but I hope they read the rest of my preview. Where most away from the course focus on the simple skills they see on paper, being on property counts and will help us win.

Wells Fargo Championship: Hidden Skills

At 7,500-plus yards, you can easily see why most focus on the driver as the primary skill needed to win this tournament. When you see these green complexes in person, it will quickly change your mind. The putting surfaces remind you of Augusta National Golf Club. They are above average in size and very slopey. The biggest differentiator over the past ten winners against the field has been strokes gained putting!

Those 10 winners have gained an average of six strokes against each field they beat. Six of the last eight winners gained more than five strokes en route to victory. That is a substantial trend and one we must pay attention to. If your pick needs to refresh his flat-stick game, I highly doubt this is the week he will catch lightning in a bottle.

The next characteristic you notice about the course walking around are the par-4s. Nine of the 11 are over 450 yards long. Quail Hollow is only 18 yards shorter than ANGC and has one less par-5! This green monster has the toughest sets of par-4s you can play. Each of the eleven 4s have interesting elevation changes. They move in different directions and test both the driver and approach game separately. Keep your par-4 score under par for the week and you will be in contention on Sunday afternoon.

A big part of getting in contention is making birdies. Frequency matters on this major venue. Thirteen holes have a bogey rate over 15 percent. To combat the mistakes, each player must make a bunch of birdies. I’ve studied who creates the most opportunities on approach and those with the best putter conversion skills. Proximity counts on greens this big. To finish at 15 under par and win, our champion needs 20 birdies.

With two weeks until our next major championship, Quail Hollow presents the perfect test. We don’t need Rahm and Scheffler here to know they will contend at Oak Hill. Take a good look at the rest. That’s one reason why I’m here walking the grounds and monitoring the practice areas. On-site coverage counts, giving me a huge boost in picking bets that will cash over the weekend.

Wells Fargo Championship: Best Bets

Best bet to win: Jordan Spieth (+1800 on BetMGM)

Look what Jordan Spieth has accomplished in his last five starts:

• His strokes gained total average gain is +10.4 strokes over the field.
• He has four top 4 finishes (Masters, API, RBC Heritage, Valspar)

Most criticize his putter because the ball striking has been so great. Spieth has gained on the greens in five straight events. Nobody is playing better without a win. He’s ranked first in the field for birdie or better percentage.

Best bet to finish in the Top 40: Taylor Moore (+130 on FanDuel)

Since his win at the Valspar Championship, Taylor Moore has continued to play at a very high level finishing eleventh in the last designated event (RBC Heritage). His T2G play is solid and the putter even better. Moore makes a bunch of birdies and that’s an acquired skill on the PGA TOUR. Over a difficult landscape like Quail Hollow that trait alone will keep him in the top 25% of the field.

Best H2H bet: Jordan Spieth over Viktor Hovland (-106 on FanDuel)

Jordan Spieth is steadily building toward a win. Viktor Hovland is riding a roller coaster. Hovland has played 32 tournament rounds in 2023. Only a third of them have been in the 60s. For every great round, he plays two average ones. Spieth’s current consistency takes this match over 72-holes.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering LPGA and PGA TOUR winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 15 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.