Tiger Woods Masters odds: How realistic are his chances to win a sixth green jacket in 2022?

Jacob Camenker

Tiger Woods Masters odds: How realistic are his chances to win a sixth green jacket in 2022? image

Tiger Woods hasn't played a PGA Tour event since the autumn of 2020. He had surgery to fix a back injury before he suffered several leg injuries during a car accident in February of 2021.

Those have kept him sidelined, but now, the 46-year-old veteran plans to return to action for the 2022 Masters that begins on Thursday.

Woods said Tuesday that he will play in the Masters "as of right now," pending a final day of practice.

As a result of his looming return, Woods is drawing a lot of interest ahead of the Masters in the gambling world. Some are trying to decide whether to take a chance on him at his longer-than-usual odds, while casual punters are driving the payout for his odds down by putting some sentimental money down on an unlikely success.

What are Woods' odds to win the Masters? And should you consider putting money on it? Below is a breakdown of what to look for.

MORE: By the numbers: Tiger Woods' records ahead of Masters return

Tiger Woods Masters odds 2022

Woods isn't among the favourites to win the 2022 Masters, but bookmakers across the board aren't letting his odds to win the tournament lengthen too much despite his long period of inaction.

Woods is among a group of players priced at 40/1 on Sky Bet, the 20th-shortest odds for the tournament. That is alongside the likes of Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau and Tyrrell Hatton and a long way off favourite Jon Rahm, who is at 10/1.

These odds are certainly longer than usual for Woods. That said, if any other golfer on the tour missed a year-plus of action due to injuries suffered in a car accident, their odds would be a lot longer than those of Woods. So, all things considered, these odds are actually surprisingly short.

MORE: Why Phil Mickelson is missing the Masters for the first time in 28 years

Tiger Woods' 2022 Masters odds, explained

Why are the odds for Woods to win the Masters shorter than expected? It all has to do with how bookmakers operate.

They typically like to have balance when collecting wagers. In other words, if anyone — be it the public or a sharp punter — puts significant money on any golfer to win, the consequence is it will shorten that player's odds. Why? Because it prevents the bookmaker from accruing too large a liability on any one golfer, as that would hurt the books if the golfer won the event.

By shortening the odds, they can still collect money on players such as Woods. However, they can do it at a discount that will not cost the books much — if any — business short-term, but it will also cost them less long-term in the event that one of the most heavily bet golfers, like Woods, wins.

Currently, it's the casual gamblers that are placing wagers on Woods to win the tournament at a notable clip. Woods always garners a significant amount of public betting action because he is one of the sport's most popular stars. That's part of why his odds are typically so low even when he hasn't been playing at his best — or at all.

An occasional gambler loves to bet on their favourite athletes to win. So, they will back Woods no matter what the odds are.

With that said, Woods' odds will probably continue to shorten in the lead-up to the event. As such, he probably won't be valued in the 40-1 range by the time Day 1 of the Masters rolls around.

So, if you want to bet on Woods, bet on him now — or shortly after he announces whether he plans to play the event.

MORE: Woods: 'As of right now, I feel like I'm going to play'

Comparing Tiger Woods' Masters odds to 2018, 2019

Woods hasn't participated in The Masters since his win in 2019. He missed the event in November of 2020 with a back problem while he missed it in 2021 as he recovered from injuries sustained in a car accident.

That said, if you look at how Woods' odds for this year's tournament compare to his odds in his previous two appearances, you can see just how long they are.

In 2018, Woods was tied for the third-shortest odds among the field. He was coming off four top-12 finishes in his previous six events at that time. In 2019, Woods ended up winning The Masters after having the fourth-shortest odds to win it. At that time, he had posted five consecutive top-30 finishes to begin the season.

Below is a full look at Woods' odds and where he ranked compared to the rest of the field in each tournament.

Year Odds Odds rank
2018 8/1 3rd
2019 14/1 4th
2022 40/1 T20th

So, while some expected that Woods' odds would be longer than they are, these are some of the longest odds that he has faced in a major.

It is certainly right to lengthen them. After all, Woods hasn't played a PGA Tour event in more than a year and a half, and it's unclear whether he can physically handle a four-day event after his injuries.

That said, the books will never be able to lengthen Woods' odds too much. And that's thanks to the public's insistence upon betting on Woods no matter the obstacles with which the all-time great golfer is dealing.

MORE: Woods out to surpass Nicklaus as oldest Masters winner

Should I bet on Tiger Woods to win The Masters?

Probably not. It would be a massive risk to roll with Woods at this stage in his recovery. We simply don't know whether he'll hold up over a full, four-day major tournament enough to compete for another title.

Also, it's worth noting that Woods turned 46 in December. He would be the third-oldest golfer in history to win a major if he can win the 2022 Masters, moving ahead of fellow 46-year-olds Tom Morris Sr. and Jack Nicklaus and slotting in behind Phil Mickelson (50) and Julius Boros (48).

Could Woods pull something like that off? Sure, it's possible. However, given that he hasn't played a PGA Tour event for so long, betting on him to pull off an unlikely feat like that seems too risky.

If you're a fan of Woods and want some action on him, perhaps bet on him to earn a top-10 finish, which is available at 5/1. Or for a lower-end payout, consider betting on a top-30 finish, which can be found at 5/4. Yes, the odds are much shorter, but then there is a much better chance of getting a reward back on your investment.

But let's not jump the gun and expect Woods to win his first tournament back. This is all part of a long recovery process, and this step is all about getting back out on the course.

Jacob Camenker

Jacob Camenker Photo

Jacob Camenker first joined The Sporting News as a fantasy football intern in 2018 after his graduation from UMass. He became a full-time employee with TSN in 2021 and now serves as a senior content producer with a particular focus on the NFL. Jacob worked at NBC Sports Boston as a content producer from 2019 to 2021. He is an avid fan of the NFL Draft and ranked 10th in FantasyPros’ Mock Draft Accuracy metric in both 2021 and 2022.