RBC Heritage 2023 betting guide: PGA expert best bets, winning wagers from Harbour Town

Keith Stewart

RBC Heritage 2023 betting guide: PGA expert best bets, winning wagers from Harbour Town image

Less than 24 hours removed from the Masters, 46 players left Augusta, Georgia and headed three hours southeast to the coast to play in the RBC Heritage. Contested annually at Harbour Town Golf Links on Hilton Head Island, the best will once again have their hands full with a much different challenge than Magnolia Lane.

Designed by Pete Dye in 1969, the coastal course is our third Dye design in five weeks on the PGA TOUR. The par 71 scorecard features:

  • Four par-3s with an average length of 202 yards and playing to approximately .5 strokes over par.
  • Three par-5s with an average 40% birdie rate.
  • Ten par-4s, each with a specific test on both the drive and the approach.

Harbour Town can be quite predictable like Augusta National. Course history tends to help you contend. Over the last ten years, the average winning score is 14 under par. With a cutline average of +1 in that same stretch of time, scoring will be tight for the top 65 and ties who make it through the 36-hole cut for the weekend.

  • The field is 143 players with 38 players from the top 50 in the OWGR.
  • The purse for this designated event is $20 million dollars and $3.6 million will be paid out to the winner.

Let's take a look at the 2023 RBC Heritage odds, discuss some variables like weather and winning trends, and then make our best bets for this 

RBC Heritage 2023: Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Golfer Odds
Scottie Scheffler +850
Jon Rahm +1100
Patrick Cantlay +1800
Jordan Spieth +1800
Collin Morikawa +2000
Cameron Young +2000
Viktor Hovland +2200
Xander Schauffele +2500
Justin Thomas +2600
Sungjae Im +2600
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2700
Tony Finau +2700
Shane Lowry +2900
Max Homa +2900
Tyrrell Hatton +3700
Sam Burns +3700
Tom Kim +3700
Russell Henley +4000
Matt Kuchar +4500
Corey Conners +4500
Rickie Fowler +5500
Si Woo Kim +5500
J.T. Poston +5500
Sahith Theegala +6000
Justin Rose +6000
Tommy Fleetwood +6000
Keegan Bradley +6500
Chris Kirk +7000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +8500
Webb Simpson +9500
Tom Hoge +9500
Brian Harman +9500
Min Woo Lee +10000
Taylor Montgomery +10000
Keith Mitchell +10000
Ben Martin +10000
Wyndham Clark +10000
Taylor Moore +10000
Cameron Davis +10000
J.J. Spaun +10000
Seamus Power +11000
Adam Hadwin +11000
Sepp Straka +11000
Kurt Kitayama +12000
Gary Woodland +12000
Denny McCarthy +12000
Maverick Mcnealy +12000
Joel Dahmen +12000
Aaron Rai +12000
Nick Taylor +12000
Brendon Todd +12000
Harris English +14000
Adam Scott +14000
Billy Horschel +14000
Viktor Hovland +14000
Davis Thompson +14000
Ryan Fox +15000
Sam Stevens +15000
Matt Wallace +16000
Davis Riley +16000
Adam Svensson +17000
Andrew Putnam +17000
Michael Thompson +17000
Tyler Duncan +17000
Sam Ryder +18000
Justin Suh +18000
Hayden Buckley +18000
Scott Stallings +19000
Ben Griffin +19000
Stephan Jaeger +19000
MacKenzie Hughes +21000
Thomas Detry +21000
Lucas Herbert +21000
Viktor Hovland +21000
Danny Willett +21000
Brandon Wu +25000
Lee Hodges +26000
Beau Hossler +27000
Emiliano Grillo +28000
Luke List +30000
Stewart Cink +30000
Garrick Higgo +30000
Trey Mullinax +32000
Akshay Bhatia +32000
Alex Smalley +32000
Erik Van Rooyen +34000
Adam Schenk +34000
Kramer Hickok +34000
Lanto Griffin +34000
Ryan Palmer +36000
Lucas Glover +36000
Kevin Streelman +38000
Cameron Champ +38000
Doug Ghim +38000
Mark Hubbard +38000
Matthias Schwab +38000
Ben Taylor +38000
Nick Hardy +38000
Patton Kizzire +38000
Luke Donald +38000
Nico Echavarria +38000
David Lipsky +38000
Chez Reavie +38000
Taylor Pendrith +42000
Scott Piercy +42000
Kevin Kisner +42000
Martin Laird +42000
Matthew NeSmith +42000
Adam Long +42000
Russell Knox +42000
Jason Dufner +42000
Troy Merritt +42000
Zach Johnson +42000
Doc Redman +42000
Austin Smotherman +42000
Ryan Moore +42000
Satoshi Kodaira +42000
Dylan Frittelli +42000
Kevin Tway +42000
Chad Ramey +42000
Peter Malnati +42000
James Hahn +42000
Greyson Sigg +42000
Andrew Landry +50000
Chesson Hadley +50000
Ryan Brehm +55000
Nate Lashley +55000
Max McGreevy +60000
Richy Werenski +60000
Ernie Els +60000
Callum Tarren +60000
Carson Young +65000
Davis Love +65000
Wesley Bryan +65000
Justin Lower +85000
Brian Gay +85000
Jim Herman +85000
Jimmy Walker +90000
C.T. Pan +90000
Tommy Gibson +90000
Robert Streb +95000
Kelly Kraft +95000
Jim Furyk +100000

RBC Heritage: Weather and what it takes to win

Unfortunately, weather took center stage over Augusta National’s golf course last week. Inches of rain and cold weather plagued the festivities. Toward the coast, our forecast is far better. Temperatures will sit in the mid to high 70’s for all four rounds. Early Friday morning there’s a good chance of a shower, but overall it will be much drier than a week ago.

I have been on the property since Tuesday morning, and I can say the ball is bouncing. The coastal soil drains well and rain has not been prevalent here in recent weeks. For an island, the wind should be tame as the peak over the four rounds is just around 10-12 mph.

Of course that’s great news. Harbour Town is an extreme accuracy contest. Sprawled out through the low country landscape these holes are tree lined. One can easily get claustrophobic trying to find the fairway fourteen times per round. Truth be told, the par 3s do not offer large landing areas either. HTGL boasts the second smallest average green size on tour (3,700 sq/ft). Only Pebble Beach’s green surface area is smaller.

RBC Heritage history: Past results and trends

Results of the RBC have been interesting over the last decade. The average winner’s pre-tournament odds have been +8200 (82-1). There aren’t many tournaments where CT Pan’s name is next to Webb Simpson’s! Or five-time winner Davis Love III shares the same champion's plaque with Sotashi Kodiara.

Even though the winner list is populated with long shots there’s two very important things to keep in mind. The first, this is a designated event. The last time the Masters winner played the week after the tournament was 2015. Now we have ten players in the field who finished in the top 10 on the leaderboard last week.

I’ve already mentioned driving accuracy as a priority. Past the necessity to thread the needle down the fairway, approach play shows the most significant gain by our recent winners. Each of the last ten have gained an average 6 shots on the field with their iron game. Nearly 50% of the approach shots come in with a mid-iron from 150-200 yards. Hitting the green is not only important, but it keeps you out of trouble.

The greens at Harbour Town are surrounded with deep bunkers and water. Each of those very difficult par 3s have water to contend with. Fifty-four bunkers can be found throughout the scorecard. Some of those sandy holes even have steps to help you get in and out. Where water and sand are missing, most greens have swales surrounding the putting surface. Chipping from tight lies to small greens takes confidence.

Jordan Spieth lost a couple strokes to the field last year putting while picking up his tartan jacket. The winner this week will receive a coat. Unlike the elegant green of Augusta National, this week the winner receives a plaid sportcoat. Spieth’s victory over Patrick Cantlay secured his win in a playoff a year ago. Jordan used his around the green talents to eventually take the title. Winners will need to sharpen their short game skills. Many of the holes will take a little wedge work to save par or score on a par 5.

Those par 5s will be crucial for keeping up. Conditions are perfect around this place. Walking the course yesterday, I could see scoring going into the high teens. Par 5 efficiency and surviving those par 3s are easy starting points. Fact is, over the years par 4 scoring separates the field. There are eight par 4s under 450 yards. These guys will find the fairway and attack. Past champions like Webb Simpson, Jim Furyk, and Matt Kuchar have been some of the best par 4 players of the last twenty years.

Winning the week after a major takes a lot of focus and a little resolve. Keep an eye on these best bets as you prepare for the RBC Heritage.

RBC Heritage 2023: Best Bets

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Best bet to win: Collin Morikawa (+1800)

CollinMorikawa - Cropped

Eight of the last ten RBC winners played in the Masters. That trend will continue this year. Collin Morikawa’s game was built to play courses like Harbour Town. His precise fade off the tee and on approach fit the landscape. He’s ranked fourth in the field T2G and fifth on approach. Those skills make him an excellent par 4 scorer. He’s one of the best mid-iron players in the world and the flatness of these greens will help him heat up with the putter.

Best bet to finish in the Top 10: Scottie Scheffler (+110)

Scottie Scheffler was first in the field at the Masters in strokes gained tee to green. He was dead last in strokes gained putting for those making the cut. That won’t happen two weeks in a row. Scheffler’s too good and his ability to be accurate will keep him contending on Dye’s design.

Best H2H matchup: Cam Young over Justin Thomas (-126)

Cameron-Young-052122-GETTY-FTR
(Getty Images)

It must have been a shock to Justin Thomas missing the cut last week. Normally a weekend warrior at Augusta National, JT’s season just hasn’t been “normal.” He has one top 10 in a designated event this season. Cameron Young finished third here a year ago. He just finished T7 at the Masters with a closing 68 and has a new secret weapon; Webb Simpson’s caddie. Paul Tesori has worked at the RBC for more than two decades. Webb has even won here. Look for Cam to contend while JT is still figuring things out.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering LPGA and PGA TOUR winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 15 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.

Keith Stewart

Keith Stewart Photo

Keith Stewart is the founder of Read the Line. Over the last two decades, Keith has earned significant recognition from his peers for his perspective covering the business and game of golf. With 5 PGA of America awards to his credit and over 25 award nominations from his colleagues on a national and local scale, Keith has consistently helped make successful choices in this industry.