PGA Expert Betting Predictions for the Honda Classic 2023: Best bets, sleepers, and value plays to win the famed tournament at PGA National Champion Course

Keith Stewart

PGA Expert Betting Predictions for the Honda Classic 2023: Best bets, sleepers, and value plays to win the famed tournament at PGA National Champion Course image

I’m walking the practice range at PGA National Resort and Spa watching the world’s best golfers prepare for a very tough test: the 2023 Honda Classic. Designed by Jack Nicklaus, the Champion Course serves as one of the toughest non-major courses on the PGA TOUR. Measuring over 7,100 yards, the par-70 layout features 15 holes in which water comes into play.

Today we will provide a betting overview of the Honda Classic, taking a closer look at the Champion Course, analyzing historical trends, and revealing our best bets for this famed tournament. 

Honda Classic betting guide: Tournament and course overview, past trends

Firstly, let's go over some basics about the Honda Classic itself, and what to expect for this weekend. 

  • The purse is a whopping $8.4 million, with a first-place check for $1.52 million.
  • There are 144 players in the field, with the top 65 (and ties) making the cut for the weekend.
  • Temperatures will be in the mid 80s, with no rain in the forecast, winds in the low teens all four days, and gusts approaching 20 miles per hour.

Thirteen of PGA National's 18 holes have a bogey rate over 15 percent, and the average winner’s score since the tournament moved to the Champ is 9.5 under par. The Sunday champion has only crossed into double-digits five times in the last 15 years the tournament has been played here. Known for the Bear Trap, Nicklaus placed peril around every shot.

The four par-3s are among the toughest sets on Tour. Not only do they average an 18 percent bogey rate, they have an average double-bogey rate of six percent! Scores can inflate quickly on the Champ — and in all the years at this venue, the cutline has never been lower than one over par. If I asked 50 players on the range if they would take 10 under par today and go home, all 50 would likely do it.

With such volatile scoring, the Honda has produced the most long shot winners on tour over the past 10-plus years. The average winner’s odds are +15600 (156-1) since 2013. Only four of those winners have started the tourney with less than +8000 (80-1) on the betting board. While Jon Rahm wins every week at +500 (5-1), it is nice to see we can still create a little hope near the bottom of the odds board.

Speaking of the odds board, let's take a look at the odds to win.

Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel

Honda Classic betting guide: Odds board

Player Odds
Sungjae Im +850
Shane Lowry +1600
Min Woo Lee +1800
Billy Horschel +2000
Aaron Wise +2200
Denny McCarthy +2200
Chris Kirk +2800
Matt Kuchar +2800
Jhonattan Vegas +3000
Adam Svensson +3000
J.T. Poston +3500
Stephan Jaeger +3500
Taylor Pendrith +3500
Harris English +3500
Adrian Meronk +4000
Thomas Detry +4000
Robby Shelton +4000
Cam Davis +4000
Hayden Buckley +4000
Ben Griffin +5000
Will Gordon +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000
Byeong Hun An +5000
Joseph Bramlett +5000
Danny Willett +5000
Lee Hodges +5500
S.H. Kim +5500
Nick Hardy +5500
Sepp Straka +5500
Brandon Wu +6000
Padraig Harrington +6500
Aaron Rai +6500
Erik Van Rooyen +6500
Webb Simpson +7000
Ryan Palmer +7500
Davis Riley +7500
Ben Taylor +8000
Justin Suh +8000
Russell Knox +8000
Garrick Higgo +8000
Charley Hoffman +8500
Adam Schenk +9000
Ben Martin +9000
Matt Wallace +10000
Peter Malnati +10000
Sam Stevens +10000
Adam Long +10000
Callum Tarren +10000
Matthias Schwab +10000
Mark Hubbard +10000
Dylan Frittelli +11000
Eric Cole +11000
Harry Hall +11000
Kramer Hickok +12500
Kevin Tway +12500
Akshay Bhatia +12500
Carl Yuan +12500
Aaron Baddeley +12500
Chesson Hadley +12500
Pierceson Coody +12500
Austin Eckroat +12500
Michael Kim +12500
Luke Donald +12500
MJ Daffue +12500
Tyler Duncan +12500
Erik Barnes +15000
Austin Cook +15000
Ryan Moore +15000
Augusto Nunez +15000
Greyson Sigg +15000
Zach Johnson +15000
Matti Schmid +15000
Doc Redman +17500
Zecheng Dou +17500
David Lingmerth +20000
Harry Higgs +20000
Ryan Armour +20000
Dylan Wu +20000
Satoshi Kodaira +20000
Ben Silverman +20000
Andrew Novak +20000
Jason Dufner +20000
Tano Goya +20000
Vincent Norrman +22500
Hank Lebioda +22500
Henrik Norlander +22500
Harrison Endycott +25000
Brian Stuard +25000
Brent Grant +25000
Tyson Alexander +25000
Robert Streb +25000
Kyle Westmoreland +25000
Sean O'Hair +25000
J.B. Holmes +25000
Jimmy Walker +25000
Jonathan Byrd +27500
Andrew Landry +27500
Richy Werenski +30000
Chris Stroud +30000
Cameron Percy +30000
Martin Trainer +30000
Scott Brown +30000
Zac Blair +30000
Kelly Kraft +30000
Jonas Blixt +30000
Fabian Gomez +30000
Sung Kang +30000
Curtis Thompson +30000
Brice Garnett +30000
Chad Ramey +30000
Kevin Roy +30000
S.Y. Noh +30000
Nico Echavarria +35000
Trevor Cone +35000
Michael Gligic +35000
Andrew Kozan +35000
Carson Young +35000
Bill Haas +35000
Paul Haley II +35000
Trevor Werbylo +35000
Brian Gay +40000
Jim Herman +40000
Rory Sabbatini +50000
William McGirt +50000
Max McGreevy +50000
Anders Albertson +50000
Scott Harrington +50000
Brandon Matthews +50000
Camilo Villegas +50000
Grayson Murray +60000
Ryan Gerard +60000
Cody Gribble +60000
Kevin Chappell +60000
Kyle Stanley +75000
Ryan Brehm +75000
Trace Crowe +75000
Brett Drewitt +75000
Parker Coody +80000
Geoff Ogilvy +100000
Marcus Byrd +150000
Tyler Collet +150000
Ben Crane +150000
Arjun Atwal +150000

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering winners, placements, H2H matchups, One and Done picks, and DFS recommendations, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Honda Classic best bet: Ben Griffin over Cam Davis (+100 on DK)

When I break down what I see at PGA National, there are a couple bets I cannot wait to place. Contending at the Champ takes great approach play. An excellent rookie on tour with a superb iron game is Ben Griffin. Nearly 50 percent of the approach shots needed at PGA National are from 150-200 yards. Ben is ranked 11th in the field for Strokes Gained Approach (SG:APP). Cam Davis cannot find his game — he’s missed three cuts in a row, and this course is no place to find it.

Honda Classic best bet: Shane Lowry to finish in the Top 20 (+110 on FanDuel) and Joseph Bramlett to finish in the Top 40 (-110 on DK)

Shane Lowry

I love the placement game, especially when I’m on property. On-site coverage just adds to the intrigue of finding the best value on the leaderboards. Shane Lowry is a favorite in the field. Yet with the unpredictability of the Champ, he’s listed at positive odds to finish in the Top 20. He has five starts at the Honda and five cuts made. Last year he placed second and last week at Riviera — another difficult test — he finished T14.

Winners of this event have shown great iron play. Second to that skill has been their work with a wedge around the green. In the last five years, winners have gained more with their short game than the putter or the driver. The field will only hit 60 percent of their greens in regulation at Honda. That figure is well below the PGA TOUR average for GIRs, meaning the short game will play a vital role.

Joseph Bramlett’s ball striking is impressive. To get around this course, one needs great tee-to-green play. He has made four starts and four cuts in 2023. In the last two, he’s gained a combined nine strokes T2G. This is a ball striker's paradise. He can keep the ball in play and with extreme length needs far less off the tee than others to compete.

Honda Classic best bet: Matt Kuchar outright winner (+2800 on DK)

Matt-Kuchar-12015-getty-FTR.jpg

Matt Kuchar showed signs last week with his wedges finishing in eighth place at the Genesis. He’s ranked first in the field for scrambling and Strokes Gained Around the Green (SG:ARG). These skills make him a great par-3 scorer — and in this evil environment, one of the favorites to come out on top. Bermudagrass is his best surface with the putter. Kuchar won this event in 2002 and has tons of win equity in this field.

I gave a close second in the outright category to Chris Kirk (+2800) for all of the same reasons. Watch your card this week just like these guys will be watching their ball. Keep it tight and in play. Follow me all weekend and rally with some in-play bets as the tournament evolves.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.

Keith Stewart

Keith Stewart Photo

Keith Stewart is the founder of Read the Line. Over the last two decades, Keith has earned significant recognition from his peers for his perspective covering the business and game of golf. With 5 PGA of America awards to his credit and over 25 award nominations from his colleagues on a national and local scale, Keith has consistently helped make successful choices in this industry.