PGA Championship 2023: Odds, value bets, top sleeper picks, and best long shots

Sloan Piva

PGA Championship 2023: Odds, value bets, top sleeper picks, and best long shots image

One of the biggest events in golf, the PGA Championship tees off this Thursday at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. Jon Rahm (+700) and Scottie Scheffler (+800), the 2023 and '22 Masters champions and the two top-ranked golfers in the world, enter the weekend as the outright favorites to win the coveted Wanamaker Trophy and the only players with odds shorter than +1400. Reigning champion Justin Thomas will also garner plenty of betting interest at +2200. Let's break down the odds and pinpoint the best values, sleepers, and long shots for the second major of the PGA Tour season and get you ready to win some cash this weekend.

This year's Masters champion, Rahm has looked spectacular all season. The world's top-ranked golfer has four total wins, seven finishes of T4 or better, and nine top-10 finishes. If he wins, he will join a short list of golfers who won two majors in the same year. Scheffler, last year's Masters champion, is also no slouch. The OWGR No. 2 has two wins, seven top-five finishes, and 13 top-12 finishes on the season. 

However, PGA Championship victories by one of the two top-ranked OWGR golfers are few and far between, and many in the sport argue that being No. 1 rarely equates to major wins in general. Combine those two sentiments with the fact that no major has been held at Oak Hill since the PGA Championship over a decade ago — well before the East Course's 2019-20 restoration — and we have plenty of reasons to hunt for value deeper in the odds board and bet on a sleeper or long shot to win. 

MORE 2023 PGA CHAMPIONSHIP: Expert betting picksRanking the top 30 golfers in the field

PGA Championship 2023: Odds

Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of May 15 at 4:30 p.m. ET. 

Golfer Winner Top 5 Top 10
Scottie Scheffler +700 +175 −115
Jon Rahm +800 +180 −110
Rory McIlroy +1400 +300 +150
Xander Schauffele +1600 +360 +175
Patrick Cantlay +1600 +360 +190
Brooks Koepka +2200 +400 +210
Tony Finau +2500 +450 +225
Jason Day +2500 +500 +240
Viktor Hovland +2800 +550 +260
Justin Thomas +2800 +500 +240
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3000 +600 +280
Dustin Johnson +3000 +500 +260
Collin Morikawa +3000 +600 +280
Cameron Young +3000 +600 +300
Cameron Smith +3000 +650 +320
Sungjae Im +3500 +650 +280
Tyrrell Hatton +4000 +800 +360
Max Homa +4000 +800 +360
Jordan Spieth +4500 +750 +350
Sam Burns +5000 +900 +400
Hideki Matsuyama +5000 +900 +400
Tommy Fleetwood +6000 +1100 +450
Rickie Fowler +7000 +1400 +600
Joaquin Niemann +7000 +1400 +600
Talor Gooch +8000 +1400 +600
Si Woo Kim +8000 +1400 +650
Shane Lowry +8000 +1400 +600
Gary Woodland +8000 +1400 +650
Adam Scott +8000 +1400 +650
Joohyung Kim +8000 +1600 +650
Russell Henley +9000 +1800 +700
Wyndham Clark +9000 +1200 +550
Sahith Theegala +9000 +1600 +700
Patrick Reed +10000 +1800 +800
Corey Conners +10000 +1800 +750
Bryson DeChambeau +10000 +2000 +850
Keegan Bradley +11000 +2000 +850
Mito Pereira +13000 +2200 +900
Justin Rose +13000 +2200 +900
Taylor Moore +15000 +2800 +1100
Denny McCarthy +15000 +2500 +1000
Cam Davis +15000 +3000 +1200
Seamus Power +18000 +3000 +1200
Matt Kuchar +18000 +3000 +1200
Harold Varner +18000 +3500 +1200
Harris English +18000 +3500 +1200
Min Woo Lee +18000 +3500 +1200
Keith Mitchell +18000 +3500 +1200
Abraham Ancer +20000 +3500 +1200
Chris Kirk +20000 +3500 +1200
Phil Mickelson +20000 +3500 +1400
Tom Hoge +25000 +3500 +1400
K.H. Lee +25000 +4000 +1400
Brian Harman +25000 +4000 +1400
Adam Hadwin +25000 +4500 +1600
Nicolai Hojgaard +25000 +4000 +1600
Kurt Kitayama +25000 +4000 +1600
J.J. Spaun +25000 +4000 +1400
Hayden Buckley +25000 +4000 +1600
Beau Hossler +25000 +4000 +1600
Adrian Meronk +25000 +4000 +1600
Ryan Fox +30000 +5000 +1800
Paul Casey +30000 +5000 +1800
Billy Horschel +30000 +5500 +2000
Taylor Montgomery +30000 +5500 +2000
Rasmus Hojgaard +30000 +5000 +1800
Patrick Rodgers +30000 +5500 +2000
Nick Taylor +30000 +5000 +1800
Lucas Herbert +30000 +5000 +1800
Dean Burmester +30000 +5500 +2000
Brendon Todd +30000 +5000 +1800
Brendan Steele +30000 +5000 +1800
Adam Svensson +30000 +5500 +2000
Stephan Jaeger +30000 +4500 +1600
Webb Simpson +35000 +6000 +2200
Thomas Pieters +35000 +6000 +2200
Robert MacIntyre +35000 +6000 +2200
Davis Riley +35000 +6500 +2200
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +35000 +6000 +2000
Victor Perez +35000 +6000 +2200
Thorbjorn Olesen +35000 +6000 +2200
Thomas Detry +35000 +6000 +2200
J.T. Poston +35000 +6000 +2200
Emiliano Grillo +35000 +6000 +2200
Anirban Lahiri +35000 +6000 +2200
Eric Cole +35000 +6000 +2200
Sepp Straka +40000 +7500 +2500
Maverick McNealy +40000 +7000 +2500
Alex Noren +40000 +7000 +2200
Aaron Wise +40000 +7500 +2500
Yannik Paul +40000 +7000 +2500
Taylor Pendrith +40000 +7000 +2500
Scott Stallings +40000 +7000 +2500
Padraig Harrington +40000 +7500 +2500
Matt Wallace +40000 +7500 +2500
Mark Hubbard +40000 +7500 +2500
Mackenzie Hughes +40000 +7000 +2500
Justin Suh +40000 +7000 +2500
Jordan Smith +40000 +7000 +2500
Joel Dahmen +40000 +7000 +2200
Danny Willett +40000 +7500 +2500
Brandon Wu +40000 +6500 +2200
Ben Griffin +40000 +7500 +2500
Andrew Putnam +40000 +7000 +2200
Adam Schenk +40000 +7500 +2500
Alex Smalley +40000 +7500 +2500
Francesco Molinari +50000 +8000 +2800
Trey Mullinax +50000 +9000 +3000
Sam Ryder +50000 +8000 +2800
Nick Hardy +50000 +8000 +2800
Jimmy Walker +50000 +8000 +2800
Davis Thompson +50000 +9000 +3000
David Micheluzzi +50000 +8000 +3000
Callum Shinkwin +50000 +9000 +3000
Adrian Otaegui +50000 +8000 +2800
Lee Hodges +50000 +9000 +3000
David Lingmerth +50000 +8000 +2800
Rikuya Hoshino +60000 +9000 +3500
Pablo Larrazabal +60000 +11000 +3500
Matthew NeSmith +60000 +10000 +3500
Kevin Kisner +60000 +11000 +3500
Chez Reavie +60000 +10000 +3500
Adri Arnaus +60000 +11000 +4000
Callum Tarren +60000 +11000 +3500
Zach Johnson +80000 +13000 +4000
Ben Taylor +80000 +13000 +4000
Thriston Lawrence +100000 +20000 +6000
Nico Echavarria +100000 +18000 +6000
Kazuki Higa +100000 +20000 +6000
Luke Donald +150000 +25000 +8000
Steven Alker +200000 +30000 +8000
Sadom Kaewkanjana +200000 +30000 +9000
Sihwan Kim +250000 +40000 +18000
Ockie Strydom +250000 +40000 +15000
Y.E. Yang +500000 +50000 +35000
Wyatt Worthington II +500000 +50000 +40000
Steve Holmes +500000 +50000 +40000
Shaun Micheel +500000 +50000 +40000
Michael Block +500000 +50000 +40000
Kenny Pigman +500000 +50000 +40000
Josh Speight +500000 +50000 +40000
John Somers +500000 +50000 +40000
Jesse Droemer +500000 +50000 +40000
Greg Koch +500000 +50000 +40000
Colin Inglis +500000 +50000 +40000
Ben Kern +500000 +50000 +35000
Anthony Cordes +500000 +50000 +40000
Alex Beach +500000 +50000 +40000
Russell Grove +500000 +50000 +40000
Matt Cahill +500000 +50000 +40000
Gabe Reynolds +500000 +50000 +40000
Chris Sanger +500000 +50000 +40000
Chris French +500000 +50000 +40000
Braden Shattuck +500000 +50000 +40000
Jeremy Wells +500000 +50000 +35000
J.J. Killeen +500000 +50000 +35000

MORE: Why Tiger Woods is sitting out of the PGA Championship

PGA Championship 2023: Best value bets

Jason Day (+2500)

Jason Day kisses the Wanamaker Trophy

It's hard to regard anyone in the field as a better value than Day, the winner of the 2015 PGA Championship. The resurgent former world No. 1 looked phenomenal in the AT&T Byron Nelson, shooting a final-round 62 to lock down his 13th career win. With his $1.71 million prize payout and 500 FedEx Cup points following the victory, the 35-year-old Australian jumped to fifth in the FedEx Cup standings despite ranking just 20th on the OWGR. Count him out if you want, but Day has the kind of across-the-board talent that can fetch a victory at Oak Hill and join the short list of golfers with multiple PGA Championship wins.

At first glance, bettors might think the par-70 East Course runs short. In comparison to Augusta National, which hosts the Masters for the first major of the year, that may be true — Augusta runs 120 yards longer -- but take a look at the actual East Course layout and you will quickly realize that it spans 7,390 yards and has fewer trees, wider fairways, and a more expansive overall playing area. It also features water in and around nine of the 18 holes, a thick rough, and many deep bunkers virtually blocking the fairways and greens. Simply put, this course is tailor-made for a player with Day's skill set.

On the season, Day ranks 25th in the TOUR in strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT) and 16th in strokes gained on approach (SG:APP). He ranks among the top 15 in the PGA in both putting and total driving, and he has maintained the 17th-best greens-in-regulation percentage (69.6). He has also been the second-best on the TOUR in scrambling, the fourth-best on par-4s, and has the ninth-best birdie rate.

Day's power as a driver combined with his fantastic accuracy on approach makes him a great bet at +2500, but his scrambling ability — on a course that's mostly foreign to this field and features a plethora of hazards — might be the x-factor. Add in his tendency to hole birdies in par-4s, of which the East Course has 12, not to mention his momentum coming from a win at the Byron Nelson, and we have Day as a tremendous value at +2500 to emerge victorious for a second straight weekend. 

Other strong values: Dustin Johnson (+3000), Tony Finau (+2500), Colin Morikawa (+3000)

PGA Championship 2023: Best sleepers

Wyndham Clark (+9000)

Wyndham Clark
(SN/Getty)

Clark also has a big recent win, having taken down the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago, and he has finished in the top six of four of his past six tournaments. He can strike the ball with as much power as just about anyone in the sport, and his SG:APP ranks in the top 20 on TOUR this season. His 68.4-percent greens-in-regulation rate makes him a great sleeper candidate this weekend, as does his tremendous scrambling success rate from 10-30 yards. Consider a modest wager on the 29-year-old American to take down his first career major on Sunday.

Other strong sleepers: Hideki Matsuyama (+5000), Si Woo Kim (+8000)

PGA Championship 2023: Best long shots

Keegan Bradley (+9000)

Keegan Bradley-100413-AP-FHDL.jpg

We will never count out a dynamic player with a diverse skill set like Bradley, who won the PGA Championship as a rookie back in 2011. The 36-year-old has many elite traits, including standing out amongst PGA's best in driving efficiency, approach game from 125-150 feet, and scrambling from the fringe. He might not be one of the five best in the world, but the best in the world would probably rank him among the guys they would prefer not to compete against in a playoff to decide a major. The Vermont native has a calm, cool confidence about him, and we wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see him shock the field and emerge with his second career PGA Championship title this weekend. 

Other solid longshot bets: Justin Rose (+13000), Keith Mitchell (+18000), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+35000)

Sloan Piva

Sloan Piva Photo

Sloan Piva is a content producer for The Sporting News, primarily focused on betting, fantasy sports, and poker. A lifelong New Englander, Sloan earned his BA and MA in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts and now lives in coastal Rhode Island with his wife and two kids.