In this betting preview:
- Tournament format breakdown
- Expert picks and predictions
- BetMGM odds to win
- Winning traits, past trends
- Course overview
We take a quick trip down the coast this weekend, from Pacific Palisades in California to Puerto Vallarta in Mexico. The Vidanta Resort is our next stop on the 2024 PGA TOUR schedule and the Mexico Open. For the third straight year, the TOUR plays the Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Vallarta. One of the longest golf courses on the PGA TOUR, the last two leaderboards have looked eerily similar.
Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Brandon Wu, Cameron Champ, and Patrick Rodgers have all finished in the top 10 both years. One quick glance gives us a good glimpse of what’s required to contend and win. I’ll dig deeper into the complement of skills needed for success, but first let’s just be happy the TOUR will enjoy great weather all week. The forecast calls for no rain and temperatures in the mid-80s. And if you're in the area, tickets are still available what what should be ideal gallery conditions.
The elite names are all taking a break from three-plus popular weeks on TOUR. The middle tier has a moment to elevate their status, as only three of the top 40 in the OWGR sit in the field of 132. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend for $8.1 million and $1.46 million for first-place. Of course, it is not $20 million like they played for in Los Angeles, but in order to get in those signature events you also have to show up in between the big ones. Each edition of the Mexico Open has given us an exciting Sunday, let's hope for another one.
For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Mexico Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Mexico Open at Vidanta picks and predictions
Best bet to win: Taylor Pendrith (+2800 Bet Rivers)
Over his last seven starts, Pendrith has five top 15 results. The uber-long Canadian can really move it off the tee. He specializes on long courses and putts well on Seaside Paspalum. Pendrith is ranked ninth in the field T2G and first in bogey avoidance.
Pendrith can score with a BoB% in the top 13 and he's proficient on the par-5s with a ranking of eight. He gained just under two strokes with his flat-stick on the field in 2023. No player fits the mold better with his power and precision.
Take Nicolai Hojgaard over Tony Finau H2H (+125 on DraftKings)
Finau is the tournament favorite, and yet he has only gained positive strokes with his putter three times over his past 13 starts. Hojgaard has the length and ball-striking skill to challenge Finau. On the greens, Hojgaard is gaining three strokes (on average) over his last five starts. The combination of Nicolai’s length, approach, par-4 scoring, and putter should help lead him past the defending champion in this 72-hole matchup.
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To finish in the top 20: Emiliano Grillo (+137 on BetRivers)
Grillo finished fifth in the 2023 Mexico Open. He gained strokes in all the major categories both years (2022, 2023) except around the green. Emiliano is ranked third in par-3 scoring and fifth in putting for this field. His ball-striking and recent fantastic flat-stick make him an excellent candidate to contend here again.
Mexico Open odds to win at Vidanta
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Displaying odds shorter than +10000.
| Player | Odds |
| Tony Finau | +800 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +1600 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +2200 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +2200 |
| Keith Mitchell | +2500 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +2500 |
| Thomas Detry | +2500 |
| Davis Thompson | +3300 |
| Erik van Rooyen | +3300 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +3300 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | +3300 |
| Brandon Wu | +3300 |
| Ryan Fox | +3500 |
| Aaron Rai | +4000 |
| Doug Ghim | +4000 |
| Jake Knapp | +4000 |
| Mark Hubbard | +4000 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | +4500 |
| Justin Suh | +5000 |
| Michael Kim | +5000 |
| Austin Eckroat | +5500 |
| Cameron Champ | +5500 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | +5500 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +5500 |
| Maverick McNealy | +5500 |
| Sam Stevens | +6000 |
| S.H. Kim | +6000 |
| Alejandro Tosti | +6600 |
| Chasson Hadley | +6600 |
| Charley Hoffman | +6600 |
| K.H. Lee | +6600 |
| Nate Lashley | +6600 |
| Vincent Norrman | +6600 |
| Carson Young | +8000 |
| Alex Smalley | +8000 |
| Alexander Björk | +8000 |
| Andrew Novak | +8000 |
| Greyson Sigg | +8000 |
| J.J. Spaun | +8000 |
| Joseph Bramlett | +8000 |
| Matt Wallace | +8000 |
| Scott Stallings | +8000 |
| Chan Kim | +9000 |
| Chis Gotterup | +9000 |
Mexico Open past winners betting trends
The last two leaderboards succinctly showed us a blueprint for success south of the border in Mexico. The first skill that stands out is length or ball speed. Any course where Cam Champ has back-to-back top 10s on TOUR favors longer hitters. Champ only has four top-10s total in that same time period! The two winners, Rahm (2022) and Finau (2023), gained over five strokes on the field off the tee. The par-71 layout covers 7,456 yards.
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The average winning score over the past two years is 21 under par, and the two winners have averaged 24 sub-par scores in 72-holes. Both had very short odds in each respective field, but 2024 has not been a “favorite” friendly year. Hideki Matsuyama’s win at the Genesis on Sunday marks the first time a winner had odds lower (+8000) than 100-1 to start the week this season.
Vidanta Vallarta has the largest collection of long-iron approaches on the PGA TOUR. Over 40 percent of the iron shots in come from over 200 yards. That’s 18 percent greater than the TOUR average! Length alongside long-iron play are the two most important skills to separate you from the field. The last two top-10s have gained an average of four strokes on approach and three strokes off the tee. We will center our research around those two complementary characteristics.
We cashed twice last week — Patrick Cantlay easily covered his H2H matchup with Viktor Hovland, and Tom Hoge finished inside the top 30 in a tie for eighth! For full coverage of the Mexico Open, subscribe to our Read The Line newsletter (it’s free!) and follow us on Twitter!
Vidanta has an interesting scorecard. With five par-3s, players who are excellent on the 3s have an advantage. Finau and Rahm gained over four strokes (on average) against their competitors on the way to winning. Those holes make up nearly 30 percent of the week’s scoring. To increase your BoB%, attacking the par-3s is a huge key. The greens are an average of 7,000 square feet in size and covered in seaside paspalum, the same grass they use on so many coastal and island destinations.
Paspalum can be frustrating to so many in the field. It is sticky and tends to be mowed at slower speeds. It helps average putters raise their baseline. Finau, Rahm, and Champ are not strokes gained putting leaders on TOUR. The trend here is to find players who putt well at Punta Cana, Puerto Rico, and the other paspalum places on the PGA TOUR. If you take that list and cross-reference it for length, it will look a lot like our last two top 10s. Our best bets this week favor speed, long-iron accuracy, par-3 acumen, and Paspalum putting.
One last feature I’m looking for is something to play for. Who really wants to gain entrance to the next signature event in Orlando? We want the hungriest middle-tier players we can find. These best bets think of Vidanta Vallarta as an “all-inclusive” destination.
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Mexico Open Vidanta Vallarta course breakdown
Vidanta Vallarta is a Greg Norman resort special. It’s long and wide open. It is also one of the top 5 longest non-major courses on the PGA TOUR. Inside the 7,500-yard scorecard, here are a couple details:
- Par 71 measuring 7,456 yards
- The scorecard displays four par-5s (average length 593 yards), five par-3s (Avg. 195 yards), and nine par-4s (Avg. 457 yards!)
- Average green size is 7,000 square feet and they are covered in Seaside Paspalum grass
- 62 percent of the approach shots are from 175 feet or greater
- The course has more bunkers (106) than trees
- Twelve holes have water in play
After three straight weeks of weather concerns, Mexico’s Pacific coastline is a perfect destination. The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-80s each day with no chance of precipitation. The wind will kick up off the water each afternoon in the range of eight to 10 miles per hour. The course hasn’t seen rain in February and the GCSAA report from the Director of Grounds states the surfaces are in perfect playing condition.
The Mexico Open is a fun week. It is also a great betting opportunity. It’s bombs away below the border, which gives us a very select few who can contend. Weeks like Vidanta Vallarta are key to building a profitable year. We can take this knowledge and predict the winner. This field is not nearly as wide open as the rankings would have you believe. Trust my PGA Professional approach and we’ll see some cash come our way just as it did last week at Riviera.
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by five-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 26 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter
