It has been a long time since we have seen an odds board similar to the one we all woke up to for the Farmers Insurance Open on Monday. Sitting at the top of the outright list was Jon Rahm at +400! Not since the days of Tiger Woods have we seen such a favorite listed.
I’m not comparing Jon Rahm to Tiger Woods or his eight wins at Torrey Pines. This comparison concerns the oddsmakers and their fear of “Rahmbo” at a course he performs very well on. Rahm has two wins in his last two starts, and he’s a combined 54 under par in those events. He has nine career wins on the PGA Tour, and two significant ones have come at Torrey: his first tour victory (Famers 2017) and first major championship (US Open 2021).
Needless to say, Rahm will be focused on win number three this week. Even though he’s playing great, I’m not ready for an outright card with just Jon’s name. At 4-1, with four others from the Top 10 in the world competing, the odds don’t justify going that route. Instead of picking Rahm to win, let’s take another strategy toward winning. Why does Jon Rahm play so well at Torrey Pines?
- He dominates the PGA Tour off the tee. Jon led the tour in Strokes Gained:Off the Tee (SG:OTT) in 2022 and this year he is statistically better than he was last season. The field at Torrey Pines hits the fairway 53% of the time. That’s well below the PGA Tour average of 62%. If you want to contend at Torrey, get the ball in play off the tee.
- Rahm is long. He averages 313.6 yards off the tee and hits the fairway 67% of the time at that length. Torrey Pines’ South Course measures over 7,700 yards. It is one of the longest on the PGA Tour.
- More than 45% of the approach shots at Torrey Pines South Course come from over 175 yards. Over Jon’s last twenty events played, he’s gained 1.3 strokes against the field on Strokes Gained:Approach (SG:APP).
- Putting on the Poa annua greens at Torrey Pines takes talent. Since 2020, Jon Rahm has gained an average of 4.2 strokes against the field on the South Course.
Rahm’s resume at this facility is impressive. For those who aren’t familiar with the Farmers Insurance Open, here’s a quick summary. A field of 156 players will compete this week starting on WEDNESDAY! In order to avoid the NFL Championship games, the PGA Tour will start one day earlier than usual and wrap up on Saturday night in primetime. The field will compete on the North and South Course for the first 36-holes.
- North Course (one round)
- Par 72 measuring 7,258 yards
- Bentgrass greens and forty-two bunkers
- The scorecard is comprised of four Par 3’s and 5’s and ten Par 4’s
- South Course (three rounds)
- Par 72 measuring 7,765 yards
- Poa annua greens and eighty-two bunkers
- Same scorecard, four Par 3’s and 5’s and ten Par 4’s
The Top 65 and ties will compete over the weekend. Five of the Top 10 players in the world are vying for a $1.566 million dollar winner’s check and an $8.7 million dollar purse overall. Over the last decade, the average winning score is 13 under par. Over that same period, the average winner’s odds pre-tournament are +5500 (55-1).
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Now, let's take a look at the full odds board.
All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook.
Farmers Insurance Open 2023: Odds to win
| Jon Rahm | +350 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1000 |
| Tony Finau | +1200 |
| Justin Thomas | +1400 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1400 |
| Will Zalatoris | +1600 |
| Sung-Jae Im | +1800 |
| Jason Day | +2000 |
| Max Homa | +2200 |
| Taylor Montgomery | +2500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2800 |
| Maverick McNealy | +3000 |
| Si-Woo Kim | +3300 |
| Justin Rose | +4000 |
| Sahith Theegala | +4000 |
| Cam Davis | +5000 |
| Adam Hadwin | +5000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +5000 |
| JJ Spaun | +5000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +7000 |
| Davis Thompson | +7500 |
| Gary Woodland | +7500 |
| Hayden Buckley | +7500 |
| Wyndham Clark | +8000 |
| Will Gordon | +8000 |
| Alex Smalley | +8000 |
| Kurt Kitayama | +8000 |
| Ryan Palmer | +8000 |
| Rickie Fowler | +8000 |
| Luke List | +8000 |
| Harris English | +8000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +10000 |
| Sebastian Munoz | +10000 |
| Scott Stallings | +10000 |
| Brendan Steele | +10000 |
| Dean Burmester | +10000 |
| Thomas Detry | +10000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +10000 |
| Davis Riley | +10000 |
| Matthew NeSmith | +12500 |
| Robby Shelton | +12500 |
| Beau Hossler | +12500 |
| Nick Hardy | +12500 |
| Adam Svensson | +12500 |
| Garrick Higgo | +15000 |
| Taylor Moore | +15000 |
| Ben Taylor | +15000 |
| Patton Kizzire | +15000 |
| Aaron Rai | +15000 |
| Ben Griffin | +15000 |
| Byeong-Hun An | +15000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +15000 |
| Seong-Hyeon Kim | +15000 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | +17500 |
| Danny Lee | +20000 |
| Cameron Champ | +20000 |
| Michael Thompson | +20000 |
| Callum Tarren | +20000 |
| Matti Schmid | +20000 |
| Joseph Bramlett | +20000 |
| Trey Mullinax | +20000 |
| Justin Suh | +20000 |
| Kevin Yu | +20000 |
| Lee Hodges | +20000 |
| Carl Yuan | +20000 |
| Austin Eckroat | +25000 |
| Charley Hoffman | +25000 |
| Lanto Griffin | +25000 |
| Adam Long | +25000 |
| Harry Higgs | +25000 |
| Harry Hall | +25000 |
| Sam Ryder | +27500 |
| Dou Zecheng | +30000 |
| Justin Lower | +30000 |
| Martin Laird | +30000 |
| David Lingmerth | +30000 |
| Cameron Percy | +30000 |
| Aaron Baddeley | +30000 |
| Doc Redman | +30000 |
| Henrik Norlander | +30000 |
| Kevin Streelman | +30000 |
| Austin Smotherman | +30000 |
| MJ Daffue | +30000 |
| Scott Piercy | +30000 |
| Doug Ghim | +30000 |
| Cole Hammer | +30000 |
| Harrison Endycott | +35000 |
| Brian Stuard | +40000 |
| Dylan Frittelli | +40000 |
| Ben Martin | +40000 |
| Rory Sabbatini | +40000 |
| Dylan Wu | +40000 |
| Taiga Semikawa | +40000 |
| Eric Cole | +40000 |
| Andrew Novak | +40000 |
| Adam Schenk | +40000 |
| SY Noh | +40000 |
| Tyson Alexander | +40000 |
| Austin Cook | +40000 |
| Michael Kim | +40000 |
| James Hahn | +15000 |
| Sean O'Hair | +50000 |
| Kevin Tway | +50000 |
| Tyler Duncan (US) | +50000 |
| Peter Malnati | +50000 |
| Paul Haley | +50000 |
| Augusto Nunez | +50000 |
| Ryan Armour | +50000 |
| Zac Blair | +50000 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | +50000 |
| JB Holmes | +50000 |
| Trevor Werbylo | +50000 |
| Keita Nakajima | +50000 |
| Joey Vrzich | +50000 |
| Patrick Welch | +50000 |
| Michael Gligic | +50000 |
| Robert Streb | +50000 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | +50000 |
| William McGirt | +50000 |
| Brice Garnett | +50000 |
| Erik Barnes | +50000 |
| Camilo Villegas | +50000 |
| Vincent Norrman | +50000 |
| Cody Gribble | +50000 |
| Hank Lebioda | +50000 |
| Sam Stevens | +50000 |
| Tano Goya | +50000 |
| Kelly Kraft | +50000 |
| Philip Knowles | +75000 |
| Michael Block | +75000 |
| Jimmy Walker | +75000 |
| Kyle Stanley | +75000 |
| Jonathan Byrd | +75000 |
| Richy Werenski | +75000 |
| Kyle Westmoreland | +100000 |
| Nick Watney | +100000 |
| Martin Trainer | +100000 |
| Scott Harrington | +100000 |
| Ryan Brehm | +100000 |
| Anders Albertson | +100000 |
| Trevor Cone | +100000 |
| Ben Crane | +100000 |
| Arjun Atwal | +100000 |
| Michael Herrera | +100000 |
| Carson Young | +100000 |
| Jason Dufner | +100000 |
| Jim Herman | +100000 |
| Kevin Roy | +100000 |
| Bill Haas | +100000 |
| Brent Grant | +100000 |
| Brandon Matthews | +100000 |
Famers Insurance Open 2023: Best bets and top props
Whoever plans to take down the tourney favorite and win come Saturday will need the skill set Rahm possesses. Here’s a quick summary of those who have a chance.
| SG:T2G leaders | Will Zalatoris, Justin Thomas, Luke List, Collin Morikawa |
| SG:APP leaders | Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Will Zalatoris |
| SG:PUTT (Poa) | Jason Day, Xander Schauffele, Si Woo Kim, Tony Finau |
H2H
I’m always looking for an edge in H2H matchups. PointsBet offered Rickie Fowler versus Kurt Kitayama. Kitayama is a killer on long courses. He drives it deep and hits 73% of his GIR’s. A solid ball striker he fits the mold at Torrey. Rickie is still searching. The swing change is coming, but has not cemented itself yet. Last week at the AMEX, he recorded a triple and two double bogeys. That level of inconsistency at Torrey will have him home after 36-holes. Take Kurt (-120 PointsBet) and call it a day.
Top 10
He has two starts, and two Top 7 finishes in the Farmers. Will Zalatoris (+180 DraftKings) is a great Top 10 prediction. He’s the best long iron player in the field; ranked first for proximity over 200 yards. There’s no doubt he has the tools and tee to green skill (ranked first SG:T2G) needed to contend.
Top 5
Just because I didn’t pick him to win doesn’t mean we can’t make a little money off the favorite. Take Jon Rahm (+115 DraftKings) to finish in the Top 5. For all the reasons outlined above and more. In his last six starts at Torrey, he has finished 3rd, 1st (US Open), seventh, second, and fifth.
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