U.S. Open 2023 Best Bets: Top sleepers, value bets, long shots, & exotic props for golf's third major

Sloan Piva

U.S. Open 2023 Best Bets: Top sleepers, value bets, long shots, & exotic props for golf's third major image

The 2023 U.S. Open tees off this Thursday, marking the start of the third major of the calendar year. The star-studded annual national championship, now 128 years old, will be held at the Los Angeles Country Club's expansive North Course for the first time. We already detailed the event and listed the odds-on favorites, but today we will dive deeper into the field and uncover some sleepers, value bets, long shots, and exotic props that offer much more bang for your buck. 

We have seen some tremendous golf over the past couple of months, including Jon Rahm's magisterial win at the Masters and Brooks Koepka's brilliant last three rounds at the PGA to win over Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland. Last weekend's RBC Canadian Open might have provided us with the best finish of the season, though. Canadian Nick Taylor sank a 72-footer to win his third playoff hole over Tommy Fleetwood and cement the first Canadian Open win by a native of Canada since 1954.  

Who doesn't love golf -- and betting on golf? Majors at new courses liven up the betting market and make wagering even more fun, and while betting on favorites like Scheffler and Rahm may seem like the best course of action, the most value and highest profitability can often be found on the sleeper and exotic prop market. So, let's go over the odds for the 2023 U.S. Open and discuss our favorites among the non-favorites.

MORE U.S. Open: Odds and picks

2023 U.S. Open Odds

Golfer Winner Top 5 Top 10
Scottie Scheffler +700 +140 −140
Jon Rahm +900 +210 +105
Brooks Koepka +1100 +240 +115
Rory McIlroy +1400 +280 +140
Patrick Cantlay +1400 +320 +150
Xander Schauffele +1600 +350 +165
Viktor Hovland +1800 +350 +165
Max Homa +2500 +550 +250
Jordan Spieth +2500 +400 +210
Cameron Smith +2500 +550 +250
Tyrrell Hatton +2800 +550 +250
Matt Fitzpatrick +3500 +600 +280
Hideki Matsuyama +3500 +750 +330
Dustin Johnson +3500 +700 +330
Collin Morikawa +3500 +600 +275
Tony Finau +4000 +600 +275
Tommy Fleetwood +4000 +750 +330
Justin Rose +4000 +750 +330
Bryson DeChambeau +4000 +800 +360
Cameron Young +4500 +900 +400
Rickie Fowler +4500 +850 +360
Sungjae Im +5000 +1000 +400
Justin Thomas +5000 +750 +330
Jason Day +5000 +800 +360
Si Woo Kim +6000 +1100 +450
Shane Lowry +6000 +1000 +450
Sam Burns +6500 +1200 +500
Patrick Reed +7000 +1200 +550
Corey Conners +7000 +1200 +500
Adam Scott +7000 +1200 +550
Wyndham Clark +7000 +1200 +550
Russell Henley +8000 +1400 +600
Joaquin Niemann +8000 +1400 +600
Mito Pereira +8000 +1400 +600
Sahith Theegala +9000 +1600 +700
Keegan Bradley +10000 +1800 +700
Denny McCarthy +10000 +1600 +700
Min Woo Lee +10000 +1800 +750
Gary Woodland +11000 +2000 +800
Joohyung Kim +13000 +2200 +850
Ryan Fox +13000 +2500 +1000
Cam Davis +15000 +2800 +1000
Eric Cole +15000 +3000 +1100
Phil Mickelson +18000 +3500 +1200
Kurt Kitayama +18000 +3000 +1100
Nick Taylor +18000 +3000 +1200
Sergio Garcia +20000 +3500 +1200
Patrick Rodgers +20000 +3500 +1200
Harris English +20000 +3500 +1200
Chris Kirk +20000 +3500 +1200
Matt Kuchar +20000 +3500 +1200
Lucas Herbert +20000 +3500 +1200
Adrian Meronk +20000 +3500 +1200
Thomas Pieters +25000 +4500 +1600
Seamus Power +25000 +4000 +1400
Adam Hadwin +25000 +3500 +1200
Taylor Moore +25000 +4000 +1400
Sepp Straka +25000 +4000 +1400
Keith Mitchell +25000 +3500 +1400
Justin Suh +25000 +4000 +1600
Andrew Putnam +25000 +4000 +1400
Emiliano Grillo +25000 +4000 +1400
Adam Schenk +25000 +3500 +1400
Sebastian Munoz +30000 +5000 +1800
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +30000 +4500 +1600
Brian Harman +30000 +4500 +1600
Abraham Ancer +30000 +5000 +1800
Victor Perez +30000 +5000 +1600
Tom Hoge +30000 +4500 +1600
Taylor Montgomery +30000 +5000 +1800
Gordon Sargent +30000 +5500 +2000
Mackenzie Hughes +35000 +6000 +2200
Padraig Harrington +35000 +5500 +2000
Jordan Smith +35000 +5500 +2000
J.T. Poston +35000 +6000 +2000
Austin Eckroat +35000 +6000 +2000
Adam Svensson +35000 +6000 +2000
Luke List +35000 +6000 +2200
Billy Horschel +40000 +6500 +2200
Aaron Wise +40000 +7000 +2500
Hayden Buckley +40000 +6000 +2200
Francesco Molinari +40000 +7000 +2200
Carlos Ortiz +40000 +6500 +2200
Sam Stevens +40000 +6000 +2200
Taylor Pendrith +40000 +7000 +2200
Alex Noren +40000 +7000 +2200
Michael Kim +40000 +6000 +2200
Pablo Larrazabal +40000 +7000 +2200
Nick Hardy +50000 +9000 +3000
Joel Dahmen +50000 +8000 +2800
Scott Stallings +50000 +9000 +2800
Sam Bennett +50000 +8000 +2800
Vincent Norrman +50000 +9000 +3000
Davis Thompson +50000 +8000 +2800
Kevin Streelman +50000 +8000 +2500
Romain Langasque +50000 +8000 +2500
Dylan Wu +50000 +8000 +2500
Matthieu Pavon +60000 +10000 +3500
Carson Young +60000 +10000 +3500
Charley Hoffman +60000 +10000 +3500
Stewart Cink +60000 +11000 +3500
Michael Thorbjornsen +60000 +11000 +3500
Wilco Nienaber +80000 +13000 +4000
Hank Lebioda +100000 +20000 +6000
David Puig +100000 +18000 +5500
Nicolas Echavarria +100000 +20000 +6500
Frankie Capan III +100000 +15000 +4500
Simon Forsstrom +100000 +20000 +6000
Thriston Lawrence +150000 +25000 +7000
Ross Fisher +150000 +25000 +7000
Roger Sloan +150000 +30000 +8000
Paul Haley +150000 +25000 +7000
Brent Grant +150000 +25000 +7500
Alejandro Del Rey +150000 +25000 +7500
Ryan Gerard +150000 +25000 +7000
Ryan Armour +150000 +25000 +7000
Mac Meissner +150000 +30000 +8000
Preston Summerhays +150000 +25000 +7000
Martin Kaymer +150000 +25000 +7000
Jacob Solomon +200000 +30000 +9000
Paul Barjon +200000 +30000 +9000
Wenyi Ding +250000 +40000 +13000
Ryutaro Nagano +250000 +40000 +13000
Ryo Ishikawa +250000 +35000 +10000
Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira +250000 +40000 +15000
Jens Dantorp +250000 +40000 +13000
Gunn Charoenkul +250000 +40000 +15000
Deon Germishuys +250000 +35000 +10000
David Horsey +250000 +40000 +15000
Aldrich Potgieter +250000 +40000 +18000
Austen Truslow +250000 +40000 +25000
Kyle Mueller +250000 +40000 +11000
J.J. Grey +250000 +40000 +18000
Berry Henson +250000 +40000 +20000
Andrew Svoboda +250000 +40000 +15000
Jordan Gumberg +250000 +40000 +18000
Patrick Cover +250000 +35000 +10000
Alexander Yang +250000 +40000 +25000
Yuto Katsuragawa +250000 +40000 +11000
Michael Brennan +250000 +40000 +18000
David Nyfjall +250000 +40000 +18000
Nick Dunlap +250000 +40000 +20000
Corey Pereira +250000 +40000 +15000
Barclay Brown +250000 +40000 +20000
Omar Morales +250000 +40000 +13000
Karl Vilips +250000 +40000 +20000
Maxwell Moldovan +250000 +40000 +13000
Bastien Amat +250000 +40000 +20000
Ben Carr +500000 +50000 +25000
Matthew McClean +500000 +50000 +25000
Olin Browne Jr. +500000 +50000 +25000
Isaac Simmons +500000 +40000 +25000
Christian Cavaliere +500000 +40000 +25000
Jesse Schutte +500000 +50000 +25000
Alex Schaake +500000 +50000 +25000
Brendan Valdes +500000 +40000 +25000

U.S. Open 2023 Best Bets: Top sleeper picks

Tommy Fleetwood (+4000)

Fleetwood-Tommy-USNews-Getty-FTR

Fleetwood was our top PGA expert Keith Stewart's best bet to win the RBC Canadian Open last weekend, and he very nearly delivered us the +2200 payout. The 32-year-old Brit forced a playoff with Canadian native Nick Taylor, but he ultimately lost when Taylor sunk a 72-foot miracle putt on their third playoff hole. Fleetwood was as excited for Taylor's shot and win as anyone, and he showed the world that he's one of the humblest sportsmen in golf. 

Fleetwood also showed the world how skilled he is at just about every facet of the game — and how even when he makes mistakes, he can quickly get himself out of trouble. The TOUR veteran had a clutch putt of his own (albeit far less impressive than the 72-footer) when he sank a clutch 20-footer on the first playoff hole to stay alive. He also had a plethora of incredible drives on the weekend, some highlight-reel approach shots, and scrambling saves you have to see to believe. The Englishman ranks seventh on the TOUR in around-the-green play and his long iron continues to wow the world. 

Fleetwood has two runner-up finishes in majors — the 2018 U.S. Open and '19 Open — and he finished T5 at the '22 PGA Championship. We're putting a modest wager on the veteran taking down his first major victory this weekend in sunny southern California. 

Justin Rose (+4000)

Justin-Rose-USNews-012719-ftr-getty

Rose always seems to be a great pick, and at +4000 to win, we can't imagine staying away from him. He's not a massive striker or the best scrambler in the sport, but his proficiency from the fairway and around the greens make him a constant contender. 

Rose won earlier in the season at Pebble Beach, so the South African-born Englishman certainly seems to enjoy warmer-weather climates. He also finished 12th at Colonial, ninth at the PGA Championship, and eighth at the RBC Canadian Open, so he's been as solid as anyone in this weekend's field when it comes to consistency across the board. We'll be betting $5 on Rose to win and $20 on him to finish in the top 20 (+330).

U.S. Open 2023 Best Bets: Top value bets

Patrick Reed (+7000)

Patrick Reed
(Getty)

Like Fleetwood, Reed has proven himself to be a masterful long-course competitor who also possesses a tremendous short game. However, unlike Fleetwood, Reed has won a major — the 2018 Masters — to go along with three other top-10 major finishes and two other finishes of fourth or better.

Reed certainly ranks as one of the more unpopular personalities in the sport, but the LIV golfer is also quite adept at blocking out the noise from his detractors. What makes him a fantastic sleeper bet in any big-tournament event or major is his aggressiveness, confidence, and ability to thrive under pressure and in clutch moments. So, while he may not check the "likability" box, he checks plenty when it comes to "winnability."

Wyndham Clark (+7000)

Wyndham Clark
(SN/Getty)

Clark can absolutely murder the ball off the tee and on approaches, so we love him on this course measuring over 7,500 yards. He also scrambles and putts well when he's on, and he's come a long way in terms of mental focus and patience. The highlights from his win at the Wells Fargo Championship last month showcase his across-the-board skills and show us why he has as good of a chance as anyone to take down the U.S. Open. 

The biggest question for Clark is whether he can balance driving power with driving accuracy. He ranks seventh in total distance off the tee this season but just 158th in driving accuracy. If he can keep his drives on the fairway — and he continues to play confidently on the green — he should be able to get out to an early lead. He certainly has enough talent on the approach, where he ranks 23rd on TOUR. His scrambling and iron play have also been elite as of late. A modest wager on Clark to win could make you a very happy bettor come Sunday evening. 

U.S. Open 2023 Best Bets: Top long shot

Eric Cole (+15000)

Cole has been quietly taking golf by storm, making noise at just about every level of the game. The rookie can do it all: drive with strength, hit fairways, land on the green, and last but not least, putt brilliantly. He holds the longest current streak without a three-putt at 331 attempts. 

Cole's parents both played professionally, so winning golf is in his genes. The 34-year-old has already established himself as a winner in the minors, and he has performed admirably in his eight PGA starts this season. Among his highlights, he has a T5 finish at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, a T15 finish at the PGA Championship, and most recently, a T6 finish at the RBC Canadian Open. What a story — and what a payout — an outright win would be for this Rookie of the Year contender.

U.S. Open 2023: Top bets to place 

Adam Scott to place top 10 (+550)

Adam-Scott-82614-ap-FTR.jpg

After a slow start to the season, Scott has caught fire as of late, logging three top-10 finishes over his past four starts. He also has plenty of experience in majors, having played a whopping 88 throughout his illustrious career (including 23 U.S. Opens). He has also pulled down a win in SoCal as recently as 2020 at the Genesis Invitational at the Riviera, just a short drive from LA Country Club. 

Scott has showcased a calm demeanor and strong off-the-tee and around-the-green game. If he can keep his greens-in-regulation percentage high this weekend, we think he's a fantastic bet to finish in the top 10 for the fourth time in five tournaments.  

Collin Morikawa to place top 20 (+130)

Collin-Morikawa-022821-Getty-FTR.jpg

Morikawa started off 2023 sizzling hot, thanks in large part to his superb tee-to-green and approach-the-green numbers. The American has four top-10 finishes on the season, and he finished T10 at the Masters. However, the 26-year-old has not finished better than T26 in the six tournaments he has started since Augusta. Morikawa's surprising withdrawal because of back spasms from the Memorial Tournament two weeks ago, despite sitting just two shots off the lead, cast some light on why he was struggling.

After taking the RBC Canadian Open off last weekend to prepare for this weekend's Open, Morikawa apparently feels a lot better. He should be feeling very confident entering this weekend considering his past success at majors and his experience at Los Angeles Country Club's North Course since its renovation in 2010. 

As a Cal-Berkley junior in 2017, Morikawa famously won all four of his Walker Cup matches at LACC to help lead Team USA to a 19-7 victory over Great Britain and Ireland. The L.A. native looked right at home on the North Course, riding his flawless iron game and strong putter to birdies upon birdies. One of his most impressive was this 303-yard par-three in which he effortlessly landed on the green and then one-putt it home from eight feet away. Here's betting we see similar positive results from Morikawa this weekend.

Keegan Bradley to finish top 40 (-105)

Keegan Bradley-100413-AP-FHDL.jpg

Bradley always seems to be underrated even though he has distinguished himself as a golfer with a solid all-around skill set. He ranks 39th on the TOUR in shots gained off-the-tee, 30th in putting average, and 25th in birdie average. What makes Bradley an elite dark-horse option at the LACC is his efficiency on approach shots between 100 and 300 yards. Take a look at how the 37-year-old ranks on the TOUR from different approach levels:

Approach Distance Average TOUR rank
From 125-150 yards 19' 7 3rd
From 175-200 yards 33' 1 28th
From >200 yards 49' 9  30th
From 200-225 yards 39' 8  40th
From 225-250 yards 46' 9  13th

That's a long-winded way of saying the man is an approach-game maestro from just about every level. With his driving efficiency, scrambling from the fringe skills, and underrated putting game, Bradley can absolutely make some noise this weekend. We like the 24th-ranked golfer in the OWGR to finish top 40 in Los Angeles come Sunday evening. 

U.S. Open 2023: Top finish parlays

Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka to both finish top five (+750)

Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka
(SN/Getty)

At this point, when you're prop-betting a major, you better have some action on one of these guys. Koepka remains one of the most stellar majors performers in the world, fresh off a PGA Championship and a T2 in the 2023 Masters. Scheffler continues to contend in nearly every tournament he plays, including a T2 at the PGA, T10 at the Masters, and top-five finishes in four consecutive starts.

Koepka's reputation as an ice-in-the-veins clutch player precedes him. The LIV defector got heckled throughout the PGA Championship but never once appeared rattled. The five-time major champion's calm, cool, collected demeanor and elite ability to adapt to new courses should help separate himself from the pack and finish among the top five. It also helps that he's paired with Rory McIlroy, one of the best golfers on the planet and a world-famous LIV critic since the Saudi tour's inception, which should keep Koepka motivated from the start.

Scheffler's off-the-tee, approach, and around-the-green games remain the best in the world and consistently carry him to the top of leaderboards. If he can get some better results with his short-stick, he can easily win his second career major. If he continues to lose strokes on the green — failing to cut three-putts into two-putts or two-putts into one-putts — he might end up with his third straight T2 at a major or fifth-straight top-five finish. A $12 bet here pays out $102, so we're happy to bet on two of the game's best and root for more majors greatness from both of them. 

Other Koepka and Scheffler props we like: Koepka +200 to have the lowest tournament score of the LIV golfers; Scheffler +600 to finish Round 1 as the tournament leader (early); Koepka +1100 to finish Round 1 as the tournament leader (late)

U.S. Open 2023: Top matchup prop

Round 1 head-to-head: Tommy Fleetwood (+100) over Tyrrell Hatton

fleetwood-tommy-03082019-getty-ftr.jpg

As we said about Fleetwood in our sleepers section, the man is on top of the world right now. He's driving the ball well, dazzling around the green, and exhibiting a consistent MasterClass of short-game prowess. He scrambles with the best of them when he gets in a jam and certainly proved his proclivity for clutch putts at the RBC Canadian Open. Fleetwood is a par-3 maestro coming into Thursday with sky-high confidence, and perfect weather and course conditions should have him picking up where he left off in Toronto. 

Hatton has also been pretty dang good as of late. He finished T3 at the RBC Canadian, his third top-five finish since May, and he finished solo second at The Players in March. However, the 31-year-old often struggles in majors. The Brit's best major finish was a T5 at the British Open in 2016, and his last place in a major was T18 at the Masters in '21. Fleetwood, meanwhile, has two solo seconds at majors ('18 U.S. Open and '19 Open) and a T5 at the '22 Masters. With the momentum and superior results in past majors, we're going with Fleetwood over Hatton in the Battle of the Brits. 

Sloan Piva

Sloan Piva Photo

Sloan Piva is a content producer for The Sporting News, primarily focused on betting, fantasy sports, and poker. A lifelong New Englander, Sloan earned his BA and MA in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts and now lives in coastal Rhode Island with his wife and two kids.