AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023 betting guide: PGA expert predictions, sleepers, top prop picks, and more

Keith Stewart

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023 betting guide: PGA expert predictions, sleepers, top prop picks, and more image

What makes the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am special is the exact same attribute that also makes it difficult. It is not the wind or the rain, although that does play a part. It isn’t the cliffside approaches or tiny greens perched alongside the Pacific Ocean. What makes this week on the PGA Tour hard are all the people involved.

A field of 156 players will compete with amateur partners this week on three different courses for the AT&T. Preparation for these three courses would be enough of a test as they provide a very different challenge than last week. Combine that with hosting an amateur as well and we’re facing several headwinds. Let's take a look at the odds for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, then review the course layouts for the first three rounds. 

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023: Odds

Golfer Winner Top 5 Top 10
Jordan Spieth +900 +250 +150
Matt Fitzpatrick +1000 +260 +150
Viktor Hovland +1100 +280 +170
Seamus Power +1900 +500 +275
Tom Hoge +2000 +450 +250
Maverick McNealy +2000 +450 +260
Andrew Putnam +2500 +550 +280
Justin Rose +2800 +600 +320
Matt Kuchar +3500 +750 +360
Keith Mitchell +3500 +800 +400
Denny McCarthy +3500 +750 +360
Joel Dahmen +4500 +900 +400
Thomas Detry +5000 +1000 +500
Taylor Pendrith +5000 +1000 +450
Alex Smalley +5000 +1000 +500
Taylor Moore +5500 +1100 +500
Trey Mullinax +6000 +1200 +550
Scott Stallings +6000 +1200 +550
Nick Taylor +6000 +1200 +550
Dean Burmester +6000 +1200 +550
David Lipsky +6000 +1200 +550
Ben Griffin +6000 +1200 +550
Russell Knox +6500 +1200 +550
Davis Riley +6500 +1200 +600
Will Gordon +7000 +1400 +600
Nick Hardy +7000 +1400 +650
Kurt Kitayama +7000 +1200 +600
S.H. Kim +7500 +1400 +650
Matthew NeSmith +7500 +1400 +650
Lanto Griffin +7500 +1400 +650
Erik Van Rooyen +7500 +1400 +650
Brendon Todd +7500 +1400 +650
Beau Hossler +7500 +1400 +650
Webb Simpson +8000 +1600 +700
Robby Shelton +8000 +1600 +700
Kevin Kisner +8000 +1600 +700
Callum Tarren +8000 +1600 +700
Ryan Palmer +9000 +1800 +800
Nate Lashley +9000 +1600 +750
Kevin Streelman +9000 +1600 +750
Justin Suh +9000 +1600 +750
Troy Merritt +10000 +1800 +800
Joseph Bramlett +10000 +1800 +800
Greyson Sigg +10000 +1800 +800
Kevin Yu +11000 +2000 +900
Garrick Higgo +11000 +2000 +900
Byeong Hun An +11000 +2000 +850
Scott Piercy +13000 +2200 +1000
Harry Hall +13000 +2500 +1000
Danny Willett +13000 +2200 +900
Chesson Hadley +13000 +2200 +1000
Brandon Wu +13000 +2200 +900
Ben Taylor +13000 +2200 +900
Jimmy Walker +15000 +2800 +1200
Harry Higgs +15000 +2800 +1200
Dylan Frittelli +15000 +2800 +1200
Carl Yuan +15000 +2800 +1100
Adam Schenk +15000 +2500 +1100
Aaron Baddeley +15000 +2500 +1000
Matti Schmid +18000 +3500 +1200
Mark Hubbard +18000 +3000 +1100
Charley Hoffman +18000 +3500 +1200
Austin Eckroat +18000 +3000 +1200
Justin Lower +20000 +3500 +1200
Doug Ghim +20000 +3500 +1200
Ben Silverman +20000 +3500 +1200
Adam Long +20000 +3500 +1200
Sam Stevens +25000 +4000 +1400
Ryan Armour +25000 +4000 +1400
MJ Daffue +25000 +4000 +1600
Luke Donald +25000 +4500 +1600
James Hahn +25000 +3500 +1400
Ben Martin +25000 +4000 +1400
Zecheng Dou +30000 +5000 +1800
Vincent Norrman +30000 +4500 +1600
Sean O'Hair +30000 +5000 +1800
Satoshi Kodaira +30000 +5500 +1800
S.Y. Noh +30000 +5000 +1800
Peter Malnati +30000 +4500 +1800
Michael Kim +30000 +5500 +2000
Matthias Schwab +30000 +4500 +1600
Marcel Siem +30000 +5000 +1800
Lucas Glover +30000 +4500 +1600
Kevin Tway +30000 +5000 +1800
Henrik Norlander +30000 +5000 +1800
Harrison Endycott +30000 +4500 +1600
Erik Barnes +30000 +4500 +1800
Eric Cole +30000 +5000 +1800
Doc Redman +30000 +5000 +1800
David Lingmerth +30000 +5000 +1800
Chad Ramey +30000 +5500 +2000
Cameron Percy +30000 +5500 +1800
Austin Smotherman +30000 +4500 +1600
Austin Cook +30000 +5000 +1800
Andrew Novak +30000 +4500 +1600
Tyson Alexander +35000 +6000 +2000
Tano Goya +35000 +5500 +2000
Ryan Moore +35000 +6000 +2200
Nico Echavarria +35000 +6000 +2200
Dylan Wu +35000 +6000 +2000
Chris Stroud +35000 +5500 +2000
Brian Gay +35000 +6000 +2200
Fabian Gomez +35000 +6000 +2000
Augusto Nunez +35000 +5500 +2000
Zac Blair +40000 +6000 +2200
Rory Sabbatini +40000 +7000 +2500
Paul Haley II +40000 +6000 +2200
Michael Gligic +40000 +7500 +2500
Kevin Roy +40000 +7000 +2500
Kelly Kraft +40000 +7500 +2500
Jonathan Byrd +40000 +7000 +2500
Hank Lebioda +40000 +7000 +2200
Grayson Murray +40000 +6000 +2200
Camilo Villegas +40000 +7500 +2500
Brice Garnett +40000 +6000 +2200
Brian Stuard +40000 +6000 +2200
Brent Grant +40000 +7000 +2500
William McGirt +50000 +9000 +2800
Trevor Cone +50000 +8000 +2800
Sung Kang +50000 +8000 +2800
Scott Brown +50000 +8000 +2800
Ryan Brehm +50000 +8000 +2800
Philip Knowles +50000 +8000 +2800
Kyle Westmoreland +50000 +8000 +2500
Kevin Chappell +50000 +8000 +2800
Cody Gribble +50000 +8000 +2800
Bill Haas +50000 +8000 +2800
Andrew Landry +50000 +8000 +2800
Anders Albertson +50000 +8000 +2800
Trevor Werbylo +60000 +9000 +3000
Tommy Gainey +60000 +10000 +3500
Scott Harrington +60000 +9000 +3000
Richy Werenski +60000 +9000 +3000
Nick Watney +60000 +10000 +3500
Max McGreevy +60000 +11000 +3500
Martin Trainer +60000 +9000 +3500
Jason Dufner +60000 +9000 +3000
J.B. Holmes +60000 +11000 +3500
Carson Young +60000 +9000 +3000
Brandon Matthews +60000 +9000 +3000
Wesley Bryan +80000 +13000 +4000
Kyle Stanley +80000 +13000 +4000
John Pak +80000 +11000 +3500
Greg Chalmers +80000 +11000 +3500
Geoff Ogilvy +80000 +13000 +4500
Garett Reband +80000 +11000 +3500
Ted Potter, Jr. +100000 +15000 +4500
Robert Garrigus +100000 +18000 +5500
RJ Manke +100000 +15000 +5000
Paul O'Hara +100000 +15000 +5000
D.A. Points +100000 +15000 +4500
Bo Van Pelt +100000 +20000 +6000
Tom Johnson +150000 +25000 +6500
Ben Crane +150000 +20000 +6000
Arjun Atwal +150000 +25000 +7000
Charles Porter +150000 +25000 +7000

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023: Course layouts

Pebble Beach Golf Links (one round + final round)

  • Par 72; 6,972 yards
  • Iconic Par 3’s, 116 bunkers across the links, and majestic cliffside views.
  • Small target greens with an average size of 3,500 square feet.

Spyglass Hill Golf Course (one round)

  • Par 72; 7,041 yards
  • Sixty-two bunkers are scattered around intricate green complexes, and seven Par 4's under 430 yards.
  • Exposed to the elements, this course can be a game changer. Get paired here on a difficult day and the AT&T is over.

Monterey Peninsula Country Club (one round)

  • Par 71 and 6,934 yards
  • Over 130 bunkers, a handful of holes with penalty areas and the newest addition to the Pebble Beach rotation.  
  • This 36-hole facility has two courses. For the AT&T they use the Shore Course.

All three courses have Poa annua grass on the greens. This California cut of grass challenges the best, especially inside ten feet. Nineteen of the Top 100 players in the world are competing with five of them in the Top 30. Over the last decade the average winning score is 18 under par. Outside of 2014, each year the total always ends up in the high teens. Nineteen under par was the winning score in five of the last ten editions.

The list of winners is far more varied than the average score. In fact, there’s a very interesting twist when it comes to their pre-tournament odds. In the last ten years, the average winner’s odds on the even years are +21100 (211-1). Yet on the odd years that average is +1800 (18-1). Since 2023 is an odd calendar year, I think you realize where my mind is focused to figure this one out.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023: Past trends and winners

Selecting successful players who will contend this week starts with that Pro-Am ability. Can they handle their partner for at least three days? The fields of this and The American Express mirror one another and succinctly show only certain guys really want to play in this format. To take it another step, the winners also have played the AT&T and contended prior to winning at Pebble.

  • Since 2006, each winner has placed at least Top 21 in the tournament prior to the year that they won. 
  • In the last ten years, each winner played the AT&T at least three times prior to taking home the trophy. 

This doesn’t mean a debutant cannot win, but if they are going to win; these next two traits better be world class this week. The two most correlated skills for success at the AT&T are Strokes Gained Approach, especially from 75-150 yards, and Strokes Gained Putting on Poa. Of the last ten winners, each gained:

  • Over 2.5 strokes against the field on the greens. 
  • Over 4 strokes against the field on approach. 

Nearly two-thirds of the approach shots at the AT&T come from that wedge range. The reason these two skills are so significant are because of the design of these three courses. All three are some of the shortest they will play on tour all year. Sixty-eight percent of the Par 4’s are under 430 yards. The Par 5’s demand accurate wedge play and all of those short approaches offer ample opportunity for birdie putts inside of ten feet! 

Tournament history tells us those who have played well here before will do so again. The careful combination of coastal wedge play and opportunistic putting bring one new name to the forefront. Seamus Power shot 128 for the first two rounds last year. His 64-64 start provided him with a five shot lead going into the weekend. He eventually finished T9, but the lessons learned were powerful. Back in the fall when faced with target greens, windy coastal conditions, and bumpy greens, he took control of the tournament in Bermuda and won. With two wins on the PGA Tour, he now has the confidence to come back to Monterey and succeed. He highlights my Read The Line betting card for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023: Expert Predictions

Outright Winner

The best odds I found while writing this for Power to win outright were on Pointsbet +2500. With a weak field it is a fair number. Power’s proximity to the hole with a wedge is impressive. In that 75-150 yard window, his average approach distance to the hole is 17’3”. That’s primarily why he carded back-to-back 64’s. He’s a strong Poa putter and over his last five events he has a win and two more Top 5 finishes. 

Top 20 

Pro-Am weeks with multiple courses and unpredictable weather conditions can cause there to be great opportunities in the placement markets. Power is listed on PointsBet +125 to finish in the Top 20. He is Top 5 favorite in the field according to every book. Last year, he finished January with four Top 15 finishes in four starts. It’s clear he likes playing this time of year and at the host venues. Of course last year’s success at the AMEX led to contending in the AT&T. Follow this trend again.

H2H

DraftKings is offering positive odds +105 in a H2H matchup of Power against Tom Hoge. Sure Hoge is the defending champion, but who would be more inspired to take down Tom than Seamus after last year’s disappointment? Chances are Hoge will have more media obligations and distractions than he’s used to. Let’s grasp that golden opportunity and complete the Power trifecta! 

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering winners, placements, H2H matchups, One and Done picks, and DFS recommendations please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.

Keith Stewart

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Keith Stewart is the founder of Read the Line. Over the last two decades, Keith has earned significant recognition from his peers for his perspective covering the business and game of golf. With 5 PGA of America awards to his credit and over 25 award nominations from his colleagues on a national and local scale, Keith has consistently helped make successful choices in this industry.