AT&T Byron Nelson 2023 betting guide: PGA pro handicaps the tournament, breaks down how to win every bet in Dallas

Keith Stewart

AT&T Byron Nelson 2023 betting guide: PGA pro handicaps the tournament, breaks down how to win every bet in Dallas image

Scottie Scheffler is the odds-on favorite to win the 2023 Byron Nelson, but PGA pro Keith Stewart of Read the Line has three bets that yield much more value, including Hideki Matsuyama at +100 to place in the top 20.

The art of scoring will be on full display in McKinney, Texas this weekend when the PGA TOUR travels to the AT&T Byron Nelson. Another event lost on the 2023 schedule, players are traveling from North Carolina through Texas to New York. That probably explains why only 11 of the top 50 in the OWGR are competing. Of those at the top of the odds board, how many will be focused on the task at hand and how many will be looking ahead? We will discuss the odds, course conditions, and winning traits for this Texas Tournament, and ultimately reveal our best bets. 

One completely focused on this tournament is KH “TPC” Lee who is going for his third Byron Nelson title in as many years. Lee went a combined 51 under par in those two wins and exhibits exactly what it takes to win at TPC Craig Ranch; a wide variety of scoring skills. We haven’t seen a true birdiefest on TOUR since January. When scoring becomes the primary skill needed to win, the outright field generally opens up. Lee was a pre-tournament +20000 (200-1) in 2021 and a remarkable +10000 (100-1) when he repeated.

Showing very little form coming into the 2022 tournament, Lee held off Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, and Hideki Matsuyama en route to a second title. We can find plenty of talent in that lower-middle betting tier on the board. I’ll break down below what it takes to finish a tournament in the mid-20s under par. Right now, let’s take a look at the odds for the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, discuss the conditions these competitors will face, and get to our best bets and predictions.

AT&T Byron Nelson 2023: Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings and DraftKings Nation

Golfer Winner Top 5 Top 10
Scottie Scheffler +360 +110 −200
Tyrrell Hatton +1200 +280 +150
Jason Day +1400 +330 +170
Tom Kim +1600 +350 +175
Hideki Matsuyama +2000 +400 +210
K.H. Lee +2500 +500 +250
Matt Kuchar +3000 +650 +300
Adam Scott +3000 +650 +320
Taylor Montgomery +3500 +800 +360
Si Woo Kim +3500 +800 +360
Min Woo Lee +3500 +850 +400
Seamus Power +4000 +850 +400
Maverick McNealy +4000 +850 +400
Aaron Wise +4000 +900 +400
Tom Hoge +4500 +900 +400
Will Gordon +5000 +1100 +500
Davis Riley +5000 +1000 +450
Byeong Hun An +5000 +1000 +450
Adam Hadwin +5000 +1100 +450
Stephan Jaeger +5500 +1100 +500
J.J. Spaun +5500 +1200 +500
Scott Stallings +6500 +1400 +600
Joseph Bramlett +6500 +1200 +600
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6500 +1200 +550
Brandon Wu +6500 +1200 +600
Ben Griffin +7000 +1400 +600
Alex Smalley +7500 +1400 +650
S.H. Kim +8000 +1600 +700
Justin Suh +8000 +1600 +700
Garrick Higgo +8000 +1600 +700
Adam Schenk +8000 +1600 +700
Sam Stevens +9000 +1800 +750
Michael Kim +9000 +1800 +750
Mark Hubbard +9000 +1800 +750
Mackenzie Hughes +9000 +1600 +750
Eric Cole +9000 +1600 +750
Cameron Champ +9000 +1800 +800
Luke List +10000 +2000 +850
Davis Thompson +10000 +2000 +850
Aaron Rai +10000 +1800 +800
Ryan Palmer +11000 +2200 +900
Robby Shelton +11000 +2000 +900
Patton Kizzire +11000 +2200 +900
Nate Lashley +11000 +2200 +900
Jimmy Walker +11000 +2200 +900
Harry Hall +11000 +2000 +900
Dylan Wu +11000 +2200 +900
Vincent Norrman +13000 +2500 +1000
Trey Mullinax +13000 +2500 +1100
MJ Daffue +13000 +2500 +1100
Erik Van Rooyen +13000 +2500 +1000
Charley Hoffman +13000 +2800 +1100
Tyler Duncan +15000 +3000 +1200
Matthew NeSmith +15000 +2800 +1100
Carl Yuan +15000 +3000 +1200
Troy Merritt +18000 +3500 +1400
Ryan Gerard +18000 +3500 +1200
Pierceson Coody +18000 +3500 +1200
Doug Ghim +18000 +3500 +1200
David Lipsky +18000 +3000 +1200
Austin Smotherman +18000 +3500 +1200
Austin Eckroat +18000 +3500 +1200
Andrew Novak +18000 +3500 +1200
Adam Long +18000 +3500 +1400
Stewart Cink +20000 +3500 +1400
Harry Higgs +20000 +4000 +1600
Greyson Sigg +20000 +3500 +1400
Chesson Hadley +20000 +3500 +1400
Scott Piercy +25000 +4000 +1600
S.Y. Noh +25000 +4500 +1600
Matti Schmid +25000 +4000 +1600
Lucas Glover +25000 +4000 +1600
Kramer Hickok +25000 +4500 +1800
James Hahn +25000 +4500 +1800
Aaron Baddeley +25000 +4000 +1600
Augusto Nunez +25000 +4000 +1600
Zecheng Dou +30000 +5000 +1800
Vince Whaley +30000 +6000 +2200
Tano Goya +30000 +5000 +1800
Sean O'Hair +30000 +5000 +1800
Kevin Roy +30000 +5000 +2000
Kevin Chappell +30000 +5000 +1800
Justin Lower +30000 +5000 +2000
Henrik Norlander +30000 +5500 +2000
Hank Lebioda +30000 +5500 +2000
Dylan Frittelli +30000 +5500 +2000
Doc Redman +30000 +5000 +1800
Chad Ramey +30000 +5500 +2000
Carson Young +30000 +5000 +2000
Cameron Percy +30000 +5000 +1800
C.T. Pan +30000 +5000 +1800
Brice Garnett +30000 +5500 +2000
Brent Grant +30000 +6000 +2200
Brandon Matthews +30000 +6000 +2200
Zac Blair +35000 +6500 +2200
Satoshi Kodaira +35000 +6000 +2200
Matthias Schwab +35000 +6500 +2200
Kevin Tway +35000 +6500 +2500
David Micheluzzi +35000 +6000 +2200
Cody Gribble +35000 +6500 +2500
Austin Cook +35000 +6000 +2200
Trevor Werbylo +40000 +8000 +3000
Scott Harrington +40000 +8000 +3000
Ryan Moore +40000 +7000 +2500
Russell Knox +40000 +7500 +2500
Roger Sloan +40000 +7000 +2500
Robert Streb +40000 +8000 +3000
Martin Trainer +40000 +8000 +3000
Martin Laird +40000 +7000 +2500
Chris Stroud +40000 +7000 +2500
Sung Kang +50000 +9000 +3500
Ryan Armour +50000 +9000 +3000
Paul Haley II +50000 +9000 +3500
Kyle Westmoreland +50000 +9000 +3500
Jonathan Byrd +50000 +10000 +3500
Harrison Endycott +50000 +9000 +3000
Tyson Alexander +60000 +10000 +3500
Trevor Cone +60000 +11000 +3500
Scott Brown +60000 +10000 +3500
Sangmoon Bae +60000 +11000 +4000
Richy Werenski +60000 +10000 +3500
Michael Gligic +60000 +10000 +3500
Jim Herman +60000 +11000 +4000
Jason Dufner +60000 +10000 +3500
Grayson Murray +60000 +11000 +4000
Bill Haas +60000 +10000 +3500
William McGirt +80000 +15000 +5000
Wesley Bryan +80000 +15000 +5000
Ryan Brehm +80000 +15000 +5000
Parker Coody +80000 +15000 +5000
Jonas Blixt +80000 +15000 +5000
Geoff Ogilvy +80000 +15000 +5000
Andrew Landry +80000 +13000 +4500
Fabian Gomez +80000 +13000 +4500
Peter Kuest +100000 +15000 +5500
Nick Watney +100000 +25000 +7000
Kelly Kraft +100000 +18000 +6000
Greg Chalmers +100000 +20000 +7000
Brian Stuard +100000 +20000 +6500
Kyle Stanley +100000 +20000 +6500
Ricky Barnes +150000 +25000 +8000
Max McGreevy +150000 +30000 +9000
Derek Lamely +150000 +25000 +8000
Derek Ernst +150000 +25000 +8000
Ben Crane +200000 +30000 +10000
J.J. Killeen +250000 +40000 +20000
D.A. Points +250000 +40000 +15000
Bo Van Pelt +250000 +40000 +13000

AT&T Byron Nelson: Course conditions

I’m not going to sugar-coat this, the weather looks awful this week. Any player who is in the 105th PGA Championship must be kicking themselves for coming down here. The Dallas region has received over two inches of rain in the span of the last week to 10 days, and two more inches have been projected over the four tournament days as well. The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-80s — and considering the storms predicted, we are lucky the wind should only blow in the mid-teens.

TPC Craig Ranch is our fourth 7,400-plus yard course these guys have faced in as many weeks. Add a little wet weather and the greens will become dart boards. Many say it will get longer, but the truth is, soft conditions make it easier to hit your target. Balls will stay in the fairway, and the green targets will become dart boards. The course is a unique design with Rowlett Creek running through the property. More than a wide stream, water comes into play on 15 of the 18 holes.

As if that extended penalty area wasn’t enough, try avoiding the 83 bunkers. Funny thing is, these players generally all do! With the sixth-widest fairways on TOUR, they just bomb away and then attack with their iron game. I can’t imagine a more polar-opposite test leading up to Oak Hill’s East Course, the venue for next week’s PGA event.

Texas has faced a colder than usual winter, and as a result there are some sparse areas throughout. It's another opportunity for these guys to swing away with confidence. With so little penalty to curtail any length, scoring becomes the primary skill set.

AT&T Byron Nelson: The art of making birdies

When it comes to making birdies and eagles on the PGA TOUR, players can accomplish going under par in a variety of ways. Most just look at the skill set of bombing it off the tee and hitting laser-like irons to their target. As the saying goes, these guys are good and watching a leaderboard fill up in the final nine holes with low scores is exciting.

To contend and get there, a player must be able to create birdies in more than one way. The basic scoring method comes from great putting. KH Lee gained an average four strokes on the greens in his two wins. Start making four or five 10-15-foot putts per round, and you’ll lower your score quite quickly. I love taking good putters on a course where flat-stick talent is rewarded.

Attacking with your long approaches is another significant scoring opportunity. Getting close to the hole on a par-5 in two shots or any of the three 200-plus yard par-3s in one will help separates contenders from the field. When you have to birdie 40 percent of the holes you play, capitalizing on the ones where others cannot is key.

The driver can be a scoring club as well. TPC Craig Ranch has three par-5s and two short par-4s. Get that ball as close to the green from the tee box and it is a considerable scoring advantage. Those five holes have a birdie rate over 35 percent, and the more length and accuracy players have only increases that average.

The last and most important piece of scoring skill needed to win this course is wedge play. Pitching and short iron approach play helps convert from 125 yards and in. The best players in the world all can score at will from this range. Amateurs wonder how these guys average five or more birdies a round under TOUR conditions. The answer is simple, learn to get the ball extremely close to the hole every time you have a wedge in your hand.

Looking at the odds board(s), collecting a combination of these skills isn’t easy. Where some are great with wedges, their long iron acumen is off. Great drivers aren’t always great putters. To create opportunities and convert takes talent and recent form. Our best bets of the week are a combination of both.

AT&T Byron Nelson: Best Bets

Last week was an exciting one at Read The Line. We predicted Wyndham Clark to win the Wells Fargo Championship at +7500 — our fourth outright prediction of 2023! If you haven’t already subscribed to our newsletter, you should check it out. Feel free to start with the free version, but don’t be surprised if you get hooked. Something about winning makes it infectious. 

With that being said, let's carry our momentum over to the Byron Nelson.

All odds are from DraftKings

Best bet H2H: Stephan Jaeger over Taylor Montgomery (-120)

I’m not sure what happened to Taylor Montgomery at Torrey Pines, but since then he has missed the cut in four of seven starts. Approach play seems to be the biggest problem, losing strokes in seven of his last eight tournaments. Stephan Jaeger on the other hand continues to play consistently. In his last ten starts he’s gaining an average of four strokes against the field T2G.

Best bet to finish in the Top 20: Hideki Matsuyama (+100)

Hideki Matsuyama
(Getty)

Hideki Matsuyama has serious scoring potential. He’s one of the few who can get hot in this field and stay close to Scottie Scheffler. The reason he’s so dangerous is his ability to use any of the birdie methods listed above to attack. Even money to get him inside the top 20 after a T3 here last year and some stellar recent form makes great sense for a placement win.

Best bet to finish in the Top 20: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+220)

Christiaan Bezuidenhout is one of the elite opportunity guys in this field. His proximity on approach creates makeable birdie putts. Better than a large majority of those competing, he converts them. His putter has been on fire in his last three starts and that is a great sign for this birdie contest. This week is far from a popularity contest. Grab these guys who can really go low when course difficulty drops. Bezuidenhout won’t win you the Masters, but in a situation like this he will contend and land in the top 20.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering LPGA and PGA TOUR winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 15 outright wins in the last year and covers the LPGA and PGA Tour, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.

Keith Stewart

Keith Stewart Photo

Keith Stewart is the founder of Read the Line. Over the last two decades, Keith has earned significant recognition from his peers for his perspective covering the business and game of golf. With 5 PGA of America awards to his credit and over 25 award nominations from his colleagues on a national and local scale, Keith has consistently helped make successful choices in this industry.