Scotland continued their superb Euro 2024 qualifying campaign with an authoritative 3-0 win in Cyprus on Friday.
Goals from surprise joint-Golden Boot leader Scott McTominay, Ryan Porteous and John McGinn inside the first half-hour ensured Steve Clarke's men made it five wins out of five in Group A.
The top two in each group progress to the finals in Germany next year and, barring a significant collapse, Scotland will be taking part in Euro 2024. Indeed, they could even lose their three remaining games and still have enough in reserve.
Norway and Georgia in third and fourth respectively play one another this week and essentially need snookers to advance, although the latter have a potential reprieve offered by a playoff spot courtesy of their Nations League performances.
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Having been used to scratching around for qualification in such a fashion, Scotland now have the altogether-loftier ambitions of trying to take top spot at the expense of three-time European champions Spain.
A brace from McTominay in March — two of six goals for the Manchester United midfielder in the campaign so far — secured a sensational 2-0 win over La Roja in March that helped to open up their handsome advantage at the summit.
Luis de la Fuente's team are nine points behind Scotland but have two games in hand. Their 7-1 demolition of Georgia last time out was only their third match of qualification.
They can reduce the deficit by beating Cyprus as Scotland sit out the midweek round and face old enemies England in a keenly anticipated friendly clash. If Spain do win, the battle for top spot will reach a crescendo in Seville on October 12.
That's when Scotland will visit La Cartuja knowing a draw can secure first place, given the head-to-head records between teams is used as a tiebreaker ahead of goal difference under UEFA rules.
Even if Clarke's side suffer a one-goal defeat in Seville, their fate will remain in their own hands. At that stage, we will have to consider the Erling Haaland factor.
As outlined, the Manchester City superstar is set to miss out on Euro 2024 on account of Norway's underwhelming qualifying performances.
However, Scotland and Spain still have Norway to play and any side containing such a ravenous goalscorer is always likely to be a threat.
Quite simply, it cannot be assumed both Scotland and Spain mop up all remaining points outside of their return encounter, even if the McTominay-inspired Tartan Army have already scaled heights few thought were possible.
Get the latest odds for Euro 2024 qualifying via BetOnSports
Scotland Euro 2024 qualifying odds
Despite Scotland's strong position in the standings, Bet365 — via BetOnSports — lists Spain as favourites to top the group.
La Roja are also seen as the relatively more likely team to qualify outright, although there's very little value whatsoever in backing against a Scotland and Spain top two, whatever order they end up in.
All things considered, backing Scotland for top spot definitely feels worth a flutter.
| BetOnSports (UK) |
Win Group A |
Finish in top two | Finish outside top two |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 9/4 | 1/12 | 7/1 |
| Spain | 1/3 | 1/20 | 10/1 |
| Norway | 33/1 | 9/2 | 1/7 |
| Georgia | 1000/1 | 33/1 | 1/200 |
| Cyprus | n/a | 250/1 | 1/2500 |
