For the first time in European Championship history, a four-team group enters the final matchday with all teams level on three points, as Belgium and Ukraine lay it all on the line while Slovakia and Romania are also in the Group E qualification mix.
Belgium's much-maligned "Golden Generation" is backed up against a wall again after falling short of expectations at multiple major tournaments in the recent past. It's likely the last chance for Kevin de Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and others to achieve something of any value before they are phased out of the fold due to age and underperformance.
At its core, a win puts either of these teams through to the knockout stage. Beyond that, the permutations for this group are a nightmare, but Belgium's +1 goal differential could be key, especially given they hold the head-to-head advantage over Romania who also sport a +1 differential.
Ukraine are on the other end of that with a -2 differential, having been thumped by Romania 3-0 in the opener before a late comeback against Slovakia gave them life.
Belgium vs. Ukraine prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Belgium (-150)
- Score prediction: Ukraine 1-2 Belgium
There's goals in this game for both sides, and truly anything can (and so far has) happened in Group E. Yet, Belgium should eventually make good on their glutton of chances in front of goal, which Ukraine do concede at a significant rate.
Ukraine have shown a propensity to crop up in front of goal late in games too, both in Euro qualifying and this tournament as well. And Belgium, for their part, have lost focus down the stretch of matches, meaning things could get hairy in the end. Ultimately, Belgium have the quality to make it through, and it'll finally be time for them to prove it. Where they go from here, however, remains questionable at best.
| BetMGM (USA) | |
| Belgium win | -150 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Ukraine win | +400 |
| Both teams to score | Y: -135 N: -105 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | O: -145 U: -105 |
| Belgium -0.5 goals | -165 |
| Ukraine +0.5 goals | +115 |
Belgium vs. Ukraine match facts
- Date: Wednesday, Jun. 26, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 6 p.m. local (12 p.m. ET / 9 a.m. PT)
- Location: MHPArena (Stuttgart, Germany)
- Referee: Anthony Taylor (ENG)
- Last meeting: None (First meeting)
Belgium vs. Ukraine best bet
- Pick: Over 2.5 total goals
- Odds: -135 (BetMGM)
- Pick: Half with most goals — 2H
- Odds: +100 (BetMGM)
What has happened to the Belgium attack, and Romelu Lukaku in particular, this tournament is truly incredible. They have scored two goals on 2.7 xG, which isn't a remarkable level of underperformance, but that does not tell the full story.
Lukaku has seen three goals nullified by VAR across the first two games, so far firing a blank despite ripping off eight shots, prompting this hilarious TV graphic which claims that "Lukaku without VAR" is second in the Euro 2024 Golden Boot race behind only the wonderfully prolific "own goal."
The good thing about statistical anomalies is that they usually regress to the mean, and this is a great time for that. Ukraine, meanwhile, have had goalkeeper issues this tournament, with Andriy Lunin sensationally benched after his nightmarish opener and Anatoliy Trubin not much better against Slovakia. Belgium's 1.5 goal total has little value at -160, but the 2.5 match total boasts more palatable odds, and it comes with little added risk given Ukraine's own prolific attack. Add in Ukraine's propensity for late drama, and Belgium's love affair with making things difficult on themselves, and this could be a memorable second half in a tournament full of thrilling finishes.
Belgium vs. Ukraine prop bet
- Pick: Kevin De Bruyne to score or assist a goal
- Odds: -110 (FanDuel)
While Belgium's attack has floundered in front of goal, Kevin De Bruyne has been one of the star performers in this tournament that nobody is talking about, given the narrative around Belgium has been solely focused on the terrible finishing.
Through two games at Euro 2024, De Bruyne has scored a goal amidst eight shots and seven chances created, combining for 1.17 xG+xA. That high volume should work wonders against Ukraine, as he continues to hunt for goals and his teammates begin finishing in a way they're truly capable of.
Belgium vs. Ukraine live stream, TV channel
| TV channel | Streaming | |
| USA | FOX | Fubo USA, Fox Sports GO, ViX |
| Canada | TSN1, TSN 3, TSN 4, TVA Sports | TSN+, TVA+ |
| UK | BBC | BBC iPlayer |
This match will be televised in the United States on FOX, with the simultaneous kickoff of Slovakia vs. Romania to be shown on FS1. Both FOX and FS1 can be streamed on Fubo, who are offering a FREE trial for new users.
In Canada, this game will be shown on multiple TSN channels as well as TLN, with a French-language broadcast available on TVA Sports.
In the UK, Euro 2024 matches are split between ITV and the BBC. This match will be televised by the BBC, with streaming on their dedicated platform, BBC iPlayer.
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