After proving doubters wrong in the Champions League group stage, Borussia Dortmund hope to make good on that showing as they take on PSV in the first leg of their Round of 16 matchup in the Netherlands.
Dortmund were not considered contenders in this year's strongest group, but finished atop the standings despite the presence of PSG, AC Milan, and Newcastle. The German side are out of the Bundesliga title race, and therefore able to prioritise European play as they gear up for a tough matchup.
They meet Dutch leaders PSV who are running away with the Eredivisie league championship, sitting 10 points atop the standings. They advanced through to the UCL knockout stage behind Arsenal, with key wins against both Sevilla and Lens on the way.
PSV boast the only two American internationals left in the Champions League group stage, with Sergino Dest establishing himself as a regular starter at full-back and Ricardo Pepi playing the super-sub role expertly. Pepi leads the Eredivisie with 63.8 minutes per goal, a mark which would be second-best in the Big 5 European leagues behind only Serhou Guirassy of Stuttgart.
MORE: Should USMNT worry that PSV's Pepi, Dest, and Tillman are last US stars left in UCL?
PSV vs Borussia Dortmund prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Borussia Dortmund (+235)
- Score prediction: PSV 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
PSV are a strong side and must be handled with care, and any club brushing past them as merely opponents of a weak Eredivisie will rue their mistake. However, Dortmund are in good form at the moment, and while this matchup has the potential for chaos, it's hard to look past the stronger side at such solid moneyline odds.
The key for the hosts will be the performance of Johan Bakayoko on the wing. The 20-year-old has performed sensationally in league play this season with heaps of scoring and creative volume, but he has not been quite as prolific in Champions League play. The same is true for Hirving Lozano, even more so, and if PSV are to snatch an upset, they'll need their starting wingers to show up.
| DraftKings (USA) |
|
| PSV win | +110 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Dortmund win | +235 |
| Both teams to score Y/N |
-200 / +160 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
-180 / +130 |
| PSV -0.5 goals |
+100 |
| Dortmund +0.5 goals |
-140 |
PSV vs Borussia Dortmund match facts
- Date: Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Philips Stadium (Eindhoven, Netherlands)
- Referee: Srdan Jovanovic (SRB), VAR: Nejc Kajtazovic (SVN)
- Last meeting: Borussia Dortmund 1-1 PSV (Oct. 22, 2002 | Champions League)
PSV vs Borussia Dortmund best bet
- Pick: 29+ total shots
- Odds: +100 (FanDuel)
While the first legs of European matchups often have the potential to be cagey, these two sides are extremely adept at scoring goals, while the bigger club Borussia Dortmund aren't exactly known for their defensive prowess.
Dortmund have conceded 27 goals in 22 Bundesliga matches this season, but their peripheral numbers suggest significant luck as well as a goalkeeper who stands on his head. They have not conceded more than one goal to any league opponent since a 3-2 defeat to RB Leipzig back in early December, coughing up just four goals in eight league games in that span, but that has come on 8.81 xGA, indicating an underlying leakiness that remains.
The same was true in the Champions League group stage, conceding just four goals in six games but pummeled with 88 shots worth 10.82 xG in those matches. They were up against an injury-stricken Newcastle, disjointed AC Milan, and finishing-plagued PSG, but PSV suffer from none of those ailments, and the German side will know they must out-score their Dutch opponents to establish a first-leg lead heading back to Dortmund.
PSV average an insane 24 shots per match in Eredivisie play, but even in the Champions League group stage against Big 5 European opposition, they still put up over 15 efforts a match, and should be right up for the game here. The only thing that will keep a lid on the hosts is the possibility of another Gregor Kobel masterclass, having been one of the best goalkeepers in the Bundesliga this year.
PSV vs Borussia Dortmund prop bets
- Pick: Niclas Fullkrug to score or assist a goal
- Odds: +170 (FanDuel)
With Sebastien Haller out injured after tweaking his ankle late in the AFCON final, it leads Niclas Fullkrug at the head of the Borussia Dortmund attack. Fullkrug is an adept goal scorer, with 11 on the year in Bundesliga play, slightly out-performing his expected goals total, but he is also a key figure in the build-up as well.
Fullkrug can show up in front of goal at any moment — he has three goals this season in the opening 10 minutes of matches, but also has two stoppage-time goals and another in the 87th minute. He's a full 90 minute player who will be heavily involved up front, and with the betting market not expecting Dortmund to perform on the road, the odds are favourable in this moment.
PSV vs Borussia Dortmund live stream, TV channel
| TV channel | Streaming | |
| USA | TUDN, UniMas | Fubo USA, Paramount+, ViX, Univision Now, TUDN app/website |
| Canada | — | DAZN |
| UK | TNT Sports 2 | discovery+ |
In the United States, the entirety of the 2023/24 Champions League knockout stage will be streamed by CBS Sports on Paramount+.
Additionally, this Champions League first-leg match in the Round of 16 has also been selected for Spanish-language television broadcast on TUDN and UniMas, a channel which is available to stream on Fubo. ViX is also a Spanish-language live streaming option.
The broadcast rights for the Champions League in Canada are owned exclusively by DAZN. In the UK, TNT Sports owns the rights to the UCL, placing this game on TNT Sports 2.
