Relegation from a top European league is always problematic, but in the vast riches of the Premier League, dropping out of the English top flight can leave clubs floundering as they miss out on massive financial opportunities.
As the 2023/24 season flips into its second half, the relegation picture has become clear, and it makes for nervy reading, especially for fans of the newly-promoted clubs.
Navigating their first season in the Premier League always proves challenging for those making the leap from the Championship, but this season all three newly-promoted sides are in grave danger of returning back down after just one year among the elite.
The Sporting News brings you an updated look at the current Premier League relegation landscape as Sheffield United, Burnley, and Luton Town hope for a second-half turnaround to salvage their top flight status.
Premier League relegation odds, favourites 2024
Odds updated as of Friday, January 12, 2024.
| Sheffield United | Burnley | Luton Town | Nott. Forest | Everton | Brentford | Crystal Palace | |
| DraftKings (USA) | -2500 | -400 | -330 | +400 | +500 | +800 | +1000 |
According to the betting market, the Premier League relegation picture has three clear favourites, and it will take some heavy lifting from those three clubs to get away from the vortex.
Sheffield United, sitting bottom of the table on New Year's Day, are heavily tipped to go down. The Blades sacked Paul Heckingbottom in early December, but the return of Chris Wilder hasn't turned their fortunes too much yet.
Above them are Burnley and Luton Town, meaning all three newly-promoted sides are at this point tipped to be headed back down to the Championship.
Among those thought to be in some danger should the situation change are Everton, Nottingham Forest, and Brentford. The Blues were docked points for financial irregularities and are therefore fighting to make up ground, while Brentford spiraled into the relegation picture with five straight defeats to finish 2023.
Premier League table
Table correct as of matches on Monday, January 8, 2024
| Pos | Team | Points | Matches Played | Goals Scored | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14. | Crystal Palace | 21 | 20 | 22 | -7 |
| 15. | Nottingham Forest | 20 | 20 | 24 | -11 |
| 16. | Brentford | 19 | 19 | 26 | -5 |
| 17. | Everton* | 16 | 20 | 24 | -4 |
| ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | |||||
| 18. | Luton Town | 15 | 19 | 23 | -14 |
| 19. | Burnley | 11 | 20 | 20 | -21 |
| 20. | Sheffield United | 9 | 20 | 15 | -34 |
*Deducted 10 points for being found to have breached profit and sustainability rules. Appeal ongoing.
How many points to avoid Premier League relegation?
While the popular saying claims that 40 points secures a club's safety each year in the Premier League, that's not really the case. In fact, the target is usually much lower than that.
Last season, in the 2022/23 campaign, 17th-placed Everton managed to secure safe passage on the final day of the season with just 36 points, beating Leicester City who finished in 18th on 34 points.
That bar of 36 points would have saved clubs in each of the last seven seasons. The last time 36 points was not enough to stay in the English top flight was in 2015/16 when Newcastle finished 18th on 37 points, with Sunderland staying dry in 17th with 39 points.
This season, through 20 matches (one past halfway), Everton are again in the final qualifying spot as the calendar turns to 2024, sitting on 16 points, one above Luton Town in 18th. At this pace, the first relegated club would end with just 30 points, while the final safe side would be around 32 points.
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