Manchester City have been handed a tough test early in the domestic Cup campaign as they face a trip to Newcastle in the EFL Cup third round.
While Pep Guardiola steered Man City to a famous treble last season, the EFL Cup was the one competition City entered in which they did not emerge with the trophy. Instead, they were dumped out in the quarterfinals by Southampton, a side which was eventually relegated in league play.
In fact, this matchup with Newcastle marks the fifth straight Premier League club that Man City have drawn, emerging with wins over Liverpool and Chelsea last year before the Saints defeat, on top of their 2021 exit at the hands of West Ham on penalties. The last lower-league side City have faced in this competition was Wycombe in the 2021 third round, whom they smashed 6-1 prior to the Hammers loss.
Newcastle reached the EFL Cup final last year, falling to Manchester United 2-0 at Wembley, stumbling just short of their first trophy since winning the Championship in 2017, and first top-tier title since winning the now defunct Intertoto Cup in 2007.
MORE: Get the latest predictions and best bets for this season's Carabao Cup
Newcastle vs Man City match facts
- Date: Wednesday, September 27, 2023
- Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. BST
- Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, England)
- Official: Chris Kavanagh
- Last meeting: Man City 1-0 Newcastle (Aug. 19, 2023 | Premier League)
Newcastle vs Man City prediction, odds
- To win: Man City (8/5)
- Score prediction: Newcastle 1-2 Man City
While Man City are installed as the pre-match favorites, both teams are afforded a nearly equivalent chance of progressing to the next round. It's though that one or both teams could rest players given they are each looking to navigate a loaded season with European football.
Still, given each team's propensity for goals, it's believed that scoring chances will be found and the over will trigger.
With Newcastle newly back in Europe for the first time in years, it'll take them time to figure out how to navigate the heavy fixture schedule, and a midweek domestic fixture here against a difficult opponent could be challenging.
| Newcastle win | Draw | Man City win | Both teams to score Y / N | Over / Under 2.5 goals | Man City to advance | Newcastle to advance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top UK betting sites | 17/10 | 51/20 | 8/5 | 8/15, 13/10 | 7/10, 23/20 | 5/6 | 10/11 |
Newcastle vs Man City: best bet
- Pick: Over 2.5 goals
- Odds: 7/10 (10bet)
Both these teams have the ability to score in clusters, and while they also defend well – as evidenced by muted scorelines in each of their past two meetings – there's reason to believe the finishing will return here. Prior to the last two matchups between Man City and Newcastle, which finished 1-0 and 2-0 in favour of today's visitors, the over hit on four straight games between these clubs, with a total of 22 goals scored.
City's typically stout defensive unit has been somewhat uncharacteristically leaky thus far, keeping just three clean sheets in nine matches this season and conceding goals to the likes of Sevilla, Sheffield United, Fulham, West Ham, and recently Red Star Belgrade.
Finally, Cup matches can have a more open element to them than league fixtures, as fringe players hope to take their opportunity in the squad and teams approach believing they have little to lose. Neither team will feel terribly aggrieved to taste defeat in this match with far more important competitions in play this year, and less fixture congestion considered a strong silver lining. That could cause an open game.
Newcastle vs Man City smart bet
- Pick: Julian Alvarez to score or assist a goal
- Odds: 5/4 (bet365)
Regardless of whether Pep Guardiola rotates his squad, it's likely that Julian Alvarez will find his way into the starting lineup for this match. Alvarez is the backup to Erling Haaland at the No. 9 position, but even with that status, he has still often been deployed in the first-choice starting XI. Given that he's not an everyday starter, but still often finds the team sheet, he's a perfect pick here amidst a lineup that would otherwise be tough to predict.
In addition, Alvarez scored against Newcastle earlier this year, bagging the only goal in the 1-0 win for City in league play back in mid-August. He is heavily involved in both finish chances and creating them, with the latter becoming an important component of a Man City squad without injured Kevin De Bruyne.
