With the European qualifiers producing surprises and Euro 2024 feeling a long way over the horizon following the resumption of major leagues across Europe, assessing which teams stand to go far in Germany in the 17th edition of the finals is somewhat trickier than it will be once the club season ends.
Reigning champions Italy's qualification is in doubt after a draw with North Macedonia and defeat to England, potentially leaving the Azzurri with a winner-takes-all game away to Ukraine in the race for qualification from the group stage.
Relative minnows including Luxembourg and Albania have impressed in qualifying, springing surprises along the way to give themselves an unexpectedly strong chance of continuing that form into the tournament proper.
Spain are the only team to have lifted the trophy more than once in the 21st century, but La Roja were almost overshadowed in Group A by fellow qualifiers Scotland's sensational performances, including victories over Luis de la Fuente's side and a Norway team spearheaded by Manchester City goal machine Erling Haaland.
BETTING SPECIALS FOR EUROS 2024: Compare latest UK offers and promos at BetOnSports
At the distinct risk of being made to look foolish on past evidence, Germany look a long way from mounting a serious challenge at their home tournament.
Die Mannschaft's programme consists of friendlies because they have automatically qualified as hosts, and the notion of reading a great deal into non-competitive matches was one that cost manager Hansi Flick his job after a 4-1 thrashing by Japan in Wolfsburg on September 9, a third straight defeat as part of a five-game winless run putting paid to the former Bayern Munich boss' tenure. Julian Nagelsmann has since succeeded him.
Elsewhere in qualifying, World Cup finalists France, Euro 2016 winners Portugal and Euro 2020 finalists England were among the teams to qualify with matches to spare.
MORE: Latest Euro 2024 results
Euro 2024 favourites: Predictions and latest odds
After Matchday 8 of the European qualifiers, England are the favourites to win the tournament outright, priced at 4/1. France won the tournament for a second time in 2000, while England's near-miss three years ago was the only time they have made the final.
Here are the 11 shortest-priced teams as of October 19, 2023.
|
England |
France | Germany | Spain | Portugal | Netherlands, Belgium Italy | Croatia, Denmark | Austria | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnSports (UK) |
4/1 | 9/2 | 13/2 | 7/1 | 8/1 | 16/1 | 25/1 | 50/1 |
Germany are third-favourites at 13/2 via BetOnSports. Spain are fourth on the odds ahead of Portugal, at 7/1, while two teams higher than both in the rankings — the Netherlands and Belgium — are alongside Italy.
Croatia, ranked joint-ninth, are dark horses at 25/1, which looks long for a team who finished third at the World Cup and only missed out on Nations League glory on penalties to Spain in June.
MORE: Explore the latest odds on England's anniversary match with Scotland
Punters looking for a price that is likely to shorten may find Italy appealing. Gianluigi Donnarumma
personified the funk they are in by making a costly mistake in Skopje but, like his country, the goalkeeper's performance was far from reflective of the quality he can produce, and they will surely improve on their meek surrender against England.
New manager Luciano Spalletti's runaway Serie A title win in charge of Napoli suggests he is well capable of transforming Italy's fortunes. Their Nations League performance means they are assured of a playoff place if they need it — potentially against Poland — and while it is by no means a given that they will not miss out on a second successive major tournament, an each-way bet at 16/1 will look decent value if they get through.
Portugal, meanwhile, seem much less complicated prospects to go far at the finals. Under the guidance of Roberto Martinez and with five-time Ballon d'Or winner Cristiano Ronaldo still starting as he approaches his 39th birthday, they qualified with a perfect record and only conceded for the first time during the campaign when Slovakia threatened a comeback in their 3-2 defeat in Porto.
From Ruben Dias and Joao Cancelo in defence to Joao Palhinha and Bruno Fernandes in the middle and Rafael Leao and Bernardo Silva either side of Ronaldo in attack, Martinez has an abundance of quality to choose from — so much so that he could keep the likes of Goncalo Ramos, Joao Felix and Diogo Jota in reserve for their win in Bratislava on September 8. At 8/1, an each-way gamble looks worthwhile.
