The UEFA Champions League final, the biggest club game of the football calendar, is nearly here.
A field of 80 teams entered the competition, and only two remain as Liverpool and Real Madrid meet at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis, France, just north of downtown Paris.
It's a matchup fitting of the occasion, as two of the most powerful clubs in the world meet. Liverpool are coming off a domestic double of cup titles, while Real Madrid ran away with the La Liga crown.
Ahead of the big game, The Sporting News breaks down the betting angles for the season's crowning event.
MORE: How to watch the Champions League final
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid betting odds
Odds via DraftKings (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), and SkyBet (UK)
Liverpool, having bulldozed their way through the Champions League and proven to be a dominant force on multiple fronts this season, is the clear favorite. But the betting market is definitely not counting out Real Madrid.
The Reds are considered half-goal favorites, but Real Madrid are at minus odds on the spread, showing just how close this matchup is expected to be. Such is often the case in high-profile showdowns such as this where the two teams are both considered powerhouse sides.
The betting markets also project plenty of goals in this match, with both teams expected to score, and the over 2.5 total goals the favorite.
That would mark a break from recent trends, as the Champions League final often proves to be a cagey affair between two teams looking to avoid committing the big mistake. The last three Champions League finals have seen just four total goals scored, and one side has been held scoreless in all three.
MORE: Real Madrid team news for Champions League final | Liverpool team news
| USA (DraftKings) | Canada (Sports Interaction) | UK (SkyBet) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Win (reg) | +110 | +113 | +105 |
| Draw (reg) | +265 | +259 | +275 |
| Real Madrid Win (reg) | +250 | +169 | +230 |
| Both teams to score Y / N | -165 / +135 | -159 / +101 | -163 / +120 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals | -130 / +110 | -150 / +108 | -138 / +100 |
| Liverpool -0.5 | +105 | +104 | — |
| Real Madrid +0.5 | -125 | -139 | — |
| Liverpool to win title | -185 | -164 | -188 |
| Real Madrid to win title | +145 | +114 | +138 |
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid prediction
While conventional wisdom would have Liverpool as the "better" team (whatever that's worth in a massive game such as this), betting against Real Madrid's Champions League magic also feels foolish. Who knows if that magic will finally runs out, or if Karim Benzema has yet another spell to weave?
Both teams have plus odds in this match, and rightly so. It's essentially a coin-flip, and the team that makes the fewest mistakes will hoist the trophy. While Real Madrid concede more chances, to the tune of 15.1 shots per Champions League game compared to Liverpool's 6.7, Los Blancos are built around punishing opponent mistakes. That is why Real Madrid are so good late in games; they lie in wait until a tired opponent begins to falter.
While Liverpool have the edge on paper, there are also signs that the Reds are slipping. Recent Premier League struggles against lesser teams are cause for concern, and the potential loss of Thiago to injury is a big blow.
A Champions League final hasn't finished level since 2016 when Real Madrid topped rivals Atletico Madrid. After watching the thrilling Europa League final decided on penalties, this one could experience the same ending. In a game in which it's impossible to separate the teams, it's perhaps best not to try separating them at all.
- Moneyline lean: Draw (+255 on DraftKings)
- Against the Spread lean: Real Madrid +0.5 (-135 on DraftKings)
- Scoreline prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Real Madrid (+1200 on DraftKings)
MORE: Teams qualified to the 2022-23 Champions League
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid best bets & expert analysis
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid best bet
For a time, major domestic and European finals grew a reputation for being cagey affairs, with teams hoping to escape at least the first half without losing the match before going on to try and win it after the break. That's no longer the case.
In the modern game, European finals have more often than not delivered on the massive buildup. While the last three Champions League finals have all gone under the 2.5 total goals, one of them (PSG vs. Bayern) had an expected goals (xG) total that surpassed 2.5 goals, while another (Liverpool vs. Tottenham) featured 30 shots and came very close.
When you look even closer, there's another factor at play — the teams. Real Madrid have played in four Champions League finals since 2014, winning all four. Across those four matches, only one opponent — notoriously cagey Atletico Madrid — managed to keep the over 2.5 total goals from hitting. In fact, going all the way to 2000, that 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid was the only Champions League final that went under the total across the six featuring Real Madrid.
Liverpool have a similar track record. The win over Spurs in 2019 was the only of Liverpool's last four Champions League finals to go under the total. Losses to Madrid and AC Milan, plus the famous comeback against AC Milan in Istanbul all went over 2.5 total goals.
Both teams have also been afforded the opportunity to rest players in the buildup. Real Madrid have been clear league champions for weeks, with Carlo Ancelotti rotating nearly his entire squad in the La Liga run-in. While Liverpool have not been afforded the same luxury, manager Jurgen Klopp still has employed a regular dose of squad changeover to keep players fresh. Liverpool's Fabinho is expected to be back and healthy, while Real Madrid's older veterans will have rejuvenated legs.
For a late-season European final with the game's most coveted trophy on the line, 2.5 total goals is a high bar to clear, and there's not much value on this selection either. But in massive tilts like this, real value is always hard to come by. Go with the result you think most likely, and ignore the odds.
Pick: Over 2.5 total goals (-145 on DraftKings)
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid prop: First team to score
If Real Madrid have one glaring weakness this season, it's starting slow.
Across their six Champions League knockout matches, Real Madrid conceded first five times — twice to Man City, once to Chelsea, and twice to PSG.
It's happened in recent big La Liga matches, too: Madrid conceded a first-half penalty to third-placed Atletico Madrid in the early-May derby and couldn't muster a comeback. They saw fourth-placed Sevilla go 2-0 up before the break in mid-April prior to mounting a three-goal comeback. Second-placed Barcelona bagged a pair before halftime in the 4-0 demolition in mid-March, and sixth-placed Real Sociedad got a 10th minute goal before Madrid shook off the cobwebs for a 4-1 win.
If anything, Real Madrid have trademarked the comeback mentality, with remarkable fightbacks in all three knockout series. The incredible turnaround against Man City even had the legendary Lionel Messi dropping expletives in disbelief.
Liverpool have also shown early weaknesses of late, with quick slips against Southampton, Aston Villa and Wolverhampton in league play, as well as Villarreal in the Champions League semifinals. But a look at the club's year-long track record shows that's more of a late-season blip than anything else.
Prior to the second leg against Villarreal, Liverpool had scored first in four of its five knockout matches, and five of its six group stage games. Big Premier League matches were no different, scoring first in the Man City game at Anfield back in October, in the draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in early January, and obviously all four shutout victories over Arsenal and Man United. In fact, Tottenham were the only team in the league this season to do the "score first double" over Liverpool, forcing the Reds to come from behind in both draws.
The betting trends say that the Premier League side should be the first to find the back of the net, but that goal will most certainly not signal the game is over.
Prop kicker: Liverpool to score first (-155)
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid prop: Player goalscorer
While Liverpool are likely to come out of the gates with pressure, Real Madrid will no doubt lie in wait.
Karim Benzema is one of the hottest strikers in the world at the moment, and while he was held off the board in Madrid's La Liga finale against Real Betis, that should only make Benzema hungrier.
Incredibly, the last time Benzema went multiple consecutive appearances without scoring was all the way back in late October, when he saw back-to-back blanks against Barcelona and Osasuna in La Liga play.
Since, every single time Benzema has failed to find the back of the net, he made amends the very next match. Additionally, Benzema has scored in all but two of his Champions League appearances this season, having bagged at least one in each of his last five, with an incredible 10 goals across that span.
If you're giving me plus odds on the most in-form finisher in the world, I'm taking them.
Prop kicker: Karim Benzema to score anytime (+125 on DraftKings)
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid prop: Total Cards
Conventional wisdom says high-profile finals such as the Champions League final produce matches with an extra edge, and thus the yellow cards come out. That's not always the case, and in this season's final, the match should be an enticing tactical affair in which the football outshines the venom.
Liverpool rank near the lowest of all Champions League teams in yellow cards earned with just 1.2 per match, having picked up just two cards over their last four European matches. Real Madrid can be a more physical side, but against the Reds in the 2020-21 quarterfinals, Los Blancos kept a lid on things with just one card earned in each leg.
The referee for this year's big match is French official Clement Turpin, who ranks near the lowest of all referees for both fouls and yellow cards given. Turpin has dished out 14 yellow cards across his four Champions League games officiated, for a mark of 3.5 per match. He has also whistled just 0.53 fouls per tackle in his four games, which lowest of all Champions League officials with at least four matches assigned.
In the 2021 Europa League final between two less skillful teams in Manchester United and Villarreal, which Turpin officiated, he dished out four yellow cards, but three came after the 84th minute and one of them came in extra time. Turpin last officiated a Liverpool match in March of 2021, when he took charge of a 2-0 Reds win over RB Leipzig, a match which saw no yellow cards produced.
The Champions League final should finish under the total, which has plus odds and is an enticing play.
Prop kicker: Under 3.5 total cards (+115 on DraftKings)
Liverpool vs. Real Madrid high-risk/high-reward flier: Ibrahima Konate goal
One of the biggest surprises of the season for Liverpool is Ibrahima Konate's center-back play. Jurgen Klopp has deployed Konate along the back line mainly for matches in knockout competitions, and he's been simply sensational. He's the likely starter over Joel Matip as Klopp looks to keep the faith in his players, sticking to the timeshare already established — although this is one to wait on placing until lineups are confirmed, just to be sure.
Not only does Konate provide a rare combination of both pace and aerial ability, but he also crops up in front of goal a lot. Konate has taken at least one shot in six of his last seven Champions League appearances, all coming in a row after failing to register one in his first game against Porto in the group stage. He's also registered one in two of his last three Premier League appearances.
I was initially looking for a shots on goal prop to place here, and Konate seemed like a great choice for the reason stated above. Then, I noticed something.
When Konate gets his shot on frame, he usually converts. Of his 13 shots this season across all competitions, he's missed with nine of them. Of the other four put on frame, three got past the goalkeeper and into the back of the net.
So, if we're going to roll the dice on Konate to get a shot on target (+400 on DraftKings), we might as well go the distance and back the Ivorian to register a miraculous third Champions League goal of the season, and what would be by far the biggest of them all. A defender hasn't scored a Champions League final goal since Sergio Ramos in 2016, so could Real Madrid get a taste of their own medicine?
Prop flier: Ibrahima Konate to score anytime (+1200 on DraftKings)
