Two teams in search of their first UEFA Europa League win of the season meet on Matchday 3 of the competition at the Amex Stadium, where Ajax visit Brighton & Hove Albion in the Seagulls' second ever home match in Europe.
Hosting one of the most famous names in European football history represents another landmark for Albion, who were playing in the second tier of English football when the Amsterdammers reached the 2016/17 Europa League final and were struggling in the third tier while Ajax were winning the Champions League in 1994/95.
Ajax, though, are the team worrying about a potential relegation battle now. The 36-time Dutch champions have endured a miserable start to the season, making their two draws in Europe — 3-3 at home to Marseille and 1-1 at AEK Athens — a relative success.
Brighton are yet to find a convincing balance between their domestic and Europa League schedules, beginning with a surprise 3-2 defeat at home to AEK that failed to spoil the achievement of competing on the continent for the first time.
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Roberto De Zerbi's entertainers showed commendable spirit to recover from falling 2-0 behind in the 20th minute when they went to Marseille, replying through Pascal Gross's 54th-minute goal and a nerveless Joao Pedro penalty two minutes from time.
Steven Bergwijn was also spot-on for Ajax on the same night, putting them ahead in Athens to ultimately help them secure a second point of the group stage despite their opponents having 23 of the 33 goal attempts across the 90 minutes.
Brighton vs Ajax match facts
- Date: Thursday, October 26, 2023
- Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. BST
- Location: Amex Stadium (Brighton, England)
- Last meeting: N/A
Brighton vs Ajax prediction, odds
- Full-time result: Brighton (4/11)
- Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Ajax (15/2)
Brighton will be wary of their short odds after being heavy favourites to beat AEK, but the price is understandable for a top-half Premier League side against visitors who have made a dreadful start to the Eredivisie season.
Backing both sides to score in matches involving Brighton is about the least revelatory tip possible. The wager last failed to pay off in one of their top-flight matches 13 games ago, when they won 3-0 at Arsenal on May 14, so it has been little surprise to see nine goals across their Europa League games so far.
For all their problems, Ajax clearly carry a goal threat: Bergwijn and fellow Netherlands international Brian Brobbey have each scored three times in this season's Eredivisie, and £10.5 million signing Chuba Akpom — a former loanee at Brighton from Arsenal — was the runaway top scorer in the English second tier last season with 28 goals.
| BHA win | Draw | AJA win | Both teams to score Y / N | Over / Under 2.5 goals | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnSports (UK) | 4/11 | 4/1 | 6/1 | 4/6, 11/10 | 4/9, 17/10 |
Brighton vs Ajax best bet
- Pick: Pascal Gross first goalscorer
- Odds: 9/1 (BetOnSports)
Brighton's key creative influence since their promotion to the Premier League at the end of that 2016/17 season, Gross showed his class as his side recovered from looking overwhelmed during the early stages in Marseille and gave them the platform to peg OM back.
The 32-year-old has been in excellent form this season and made his case as a strong candidate for Germany's Euro 2024 squad during friendlies with the USA and Mexico this month, causing new national-team manager Julian Nagelsmann to describe Gross as a "very intelligent footballer".
"Pascal is very clever in space, is brave and has good counterpressing," said Nagelsmann. "He can play many positions. He's been a bit under the radar in Germany for years."
Pascal Gross appreciation post. 🔥
— Brighton & Hove Albion (@OfficialBHAFC) October 6, 2023
Back from injury with a goal and back in the @DFB_Team squad! 👑 @MonsterEnergy 🔋 pic.twitter.com/MoPxBDbHbu
Gross paired expert technique with deadly finishing to score for his club against West Ham United and Manchester United before the international break, and he may be one of the safer predictions to start in De Zerbi's highly changeable lineup selections, playing every minute of their European campaign so far.
De Zerbi will be particularly keen for Albion to score the first goal — as they have done in five of their eight Premier League matches this season — after falling behind in both of their European games because of sluggish starts by their standards.
Kaoru Mitoma: Back Japan star to score anytime
- Odds: 11/8 (BetOnSports)
The provider of Gross's goal against OM, Mitoma has played in all but four minutes of Brighton's European season and had seven touches inside the box at the Stade Velodrome, four more than any of his teammates.
Curiously, the three Joao Pedro penalties making up Brighton's non-Gross goals in the Europa League mean that Mitoma is their only player to have provided an assist, and the Japan international's eye for goal means there is every chance he will join the scoresheet against a porous Ajax team.
MORE: Kaoru Mitoma can break the mould for Japanese football
It may not be saying much given that it was only 0.2, but Mitoma had the highest expected goals of any Brighton player except Joao Pedro against AEK. The Brazilian was also the only player to have possession inside the area more times than Mitoma that night.
