Jose Mourinho is 90 minutes away from yet another European final as he leads Roma into the second leg of their Europa League semifinal against Bayer Leverkusen.
Roma secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory at home in the opening act of this matchup last week, as 21-year-old midfielder Edoardo Bove rifled home the game's only goal in the 63rd minute.
Leverkusen were not without their chances, including a late miss by Jeremie Frimpong, but for the most part the German side were locked down throughout the contest by the smothering Roma structure, and the Italians deserved their victory.
Still, the matchup is very much in the balance, and with Leverkusen at home, they will be buoyed in their belief of turning the tie around.
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Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma match facts
- Date: Thursday, May 18
- Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. BST / 5 a.m. AEST (Fri, May 19)
- Location: BayArena (Leverkusen, Germany)
- Official: Slavko Vincic (SVN)
- First leg: Roma 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen (May 11, 2023)
Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Bayer Leverkusen (+105)
- Score prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Roma
It's quite odd that Bayer Leverkusen are heavy favourites to win at home, and yet Roma are heavy favourites to advance to the final. With an aggregate scoreline that's still just a one-goal swing, that doesn't really make a lot of sense.
Here's where things swing in the Germans' favour: Roma have won just one of their past eight away trips in Europe, doing most of the business at home across the previous two years under Jose Mourinho. Unable to put forth a fully convincing performance in the Italian capital, and having dropped points in each of their most recent five domestic matches, they now face a daunting task in Germany.
Overwhelmingly, however, the match is expected to be low-scoring, as oddsmakers saw the first leg and are expecting this contest to play out similarly. That will likely be the case, but don't count out both sides finding the back of the net, as both were good for a goal in the first leg based on xG.
| Leverkusen win | Draw | Roma win | Both teams to score Y / N | Over / Under 2.5 goals | BAY advance | ROM advance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM (USA) | +105 | +225 | +280 | -110 / -130 | +110 / -155 | +130 | -190 |
| Sports Interaction (Canada) | +105 | +226 | +264 | -119 / -132 | +115 / -147 | +152 | -215 |
| SkyBet (UK) | 1/1 | 23/10 | 13/5 | 10/11, 4/5 | 11/10, 4/6 | 13/8 | 4/9 |
| Neds (Australia) | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.80 | 1.91 / 1.80 | 2.15 / 1.64 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet (India) | 2.02 | 3.32 | 3.66 | 1.88 / 1.86 | 2.07 / 1.70 | 2.45 | 1.51 |
Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma: best bet
- Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
- Odds: -155 (BetMGM)
There's nothing wrong with going back to the well of Italian teams to provide unders in European play time and time again.
In the Europa League knockout stage this season, Roma have gone under the 2.5 goal total in six of their seven matches, and Juventus, who are competing in the other semifinal, have put up the same total. All six of AC Milan's Champions League knockout-stage matches went under that figure, while Inter's went under in five of six. Even high-flying Napoli went under in three of their four knockout-stage games.
So, in this match, even with the odds swung against goals, there's still significant value here as Mourinho looks to keep hold of Roma's lead on the road in Germany.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma prop bet
- Pick: Florian Wirtz to score or assist a goal
- Odds: +140 (FanDuel)
If Leverkusen are indeed going to find the back of the net, it will involve 20-year-old Florian Wirtz in some fashion.
Their best two chances in the first leg were via Wirtz, as he went wide with a brilliant opening early on before assisting Frimpong's late opportunity as well. Since returning from his torn ACL, Wirtz has scored three goals and assisted two more in the knockout stages of their European campaign this season, and as he's gone a bit quiet domestically in recent matches, so has Leverkusen's attack.
His influence is critical to their success, and at home, he should be able to provide.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma live stream, TV channel
MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with Fubo in USA
| TV channel | Streaming | |
|---|---|---|
| USA | — | Paramount+ |
| Canada | — | DAZN |
| UK | BT Sport 3 | BT Sport |
| Australia | — | Stan Sport |
| New Zealand | — | — |
| India | — | — |
| Hong Kong | — | beIN Sports Connect |
| Malaysia | — | beIN Sports Connect |
| Singapore | — | — |
