Seven-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady was away from the Buccaneers’ training camp for nearly two weeks, and many fantasy football owners started to get a little nervous about drafting him. Because nobody knows exactly what led to the unannounced preseason hiatus, the speculation has been widespread. The central question: Should you draft Tom Brady to your fantasy team?
Let’s dive into the logistics of that question, talk about what we know about this apparent training camp ghosting, and go over our projections for Brady's 23rd season now that he's back in action.
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Tom Brady Update: When will Brady return to Buccaneers' camp?
UPDATE (08/22): Brady has returned to the Buccaneers, and he's expected to practice with the team this week ahead of his 23rd NFL season. No word on if the GOAT will make himself availability after practice at any point. Tampa Bay finishes out the preseason against the Colts Aug. 27 and kicks off its 2022 season against the Cowboys Sept. 11.
The official word out of Tampa regarding Brady’s absence so far: personal reasons. Now, that can mean a number of different things — including the illness of a family member, management of his business, or simply just spending time with his wife and kids. Apparently, this absence was planned, according to coach Todd Bowles, and Brady was always expected to be away until at least Aug. 20.
Here’s what Todd Bowles said about Tom Brady being away from the team until after next week’s game vs. Titans. pic.twitter.com/Y55qLMQgxB
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) August 11, 2022
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Bowles later added, “Obviously there’s always gonna be doubt, but I have a pretty high level of confidence” that Brady will play in the Bucs’ season-opener against the Cowboys in Dallas. That led to Tampa Bay GM Jason Licht stating that he’s positive Brady will be at AT&T to lead Tampa’s Week 1 offense.
"Of course we were going to let him do what he needs to do,” Licht assured WDAE radio in Tampa. “He’s as focused as ever. He’ll come back even more focused. It’s the least of our concerns.”
Fantasy owners were rightfully nervous while Brady was gone — but now he's back, and all is right in the world of GOATs.
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Tom Brady fantasy ranking and ADP
Should you draft Brady? In a word: yes. Fantasy football is all about value, and Brady’s odd preseason vanishing act has bumped up his value immensely. Many fantasy owners avoid any semblance of risk, so they will pass on the GOAT at his ADP of 87. The reigning yardage and touchdown champ, three-time MVP, and five-time Super Bowl MVP in Round 8 or 9? He's our No. 9 QB and No. 81 overall player — so yeah, sign us up.
We know the preseason drama can be disconcerting, but this kind of thing is not all that surprising to people familiar with Brady. He’s the winningest QB in the history of pro football, after all — he plays by different rules. For all we know, this could have been a planned vacation with Gisele and the kids since way back when Brady retired for a month back in February.
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Brady practically runs his own offense at this point. He’s won championships in the past after sitting out ‘vital’ offseason practices — people get over it pretty quickly. Who are we to doubt the seven-time champ, as long as he has stud receiver Mike Evans to pull down contested catches, red-zone threat Kyle Rudolph nabbing TDs, and elite slot receiver Chris Godwin returns to 100 percent after his torn right ACL (which seems likely, at this point)? Whatever former All-Pro receiver Julio Jones provides will be icing on an already-sweet cake.
Brady led the NFL in completions, yards, and TDs in 20221, playing every game of the season for the fifth-straight year and the 18th time in his career. The 45-year-old bets on himself year in and year out, so there’s really no reason you should bet against him and let him slip into the 10th round to skyrocket the value of one of your leaguemate’s rosters.
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If you worry even a little bit about Brady pulling a second retirement in six months, grab a good backup QB a few rounds after you select Brady. In single-QB leagues, most fantasy owners will avoid drafting a second signal-caller so they can improve their depth at other skill positions. We’ve seen Trevor Lawrence going as late as the 12th round, and both Jameis Winston and Ryan Tannehill can usually be found in the 13th or 14th. This would also open up the opportunity of using one of your QBs as a trade asset if opponents find themselves in a jam at the position due to injury or ineffectiveness.
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Tom Brady 2022 outlook, projections
Here’s what Sporting News Fantasy’s Jovan Alford said in his Brady ranking earlier this summer, which placed him No. 9 among signal-callers:
We thought that Brady wasn’t going to play this season, but he changed his mind after only being retired for 40 days. Brady enters this season without his All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski and head coach Bruce Arians. However, he still has Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Cameron Brate, Chris Godwin (when he returns early in the year from a right knee injury), and Russell Gage and Julio Jones at his disposal. Last season, Brady led the NFL in passing yards (5,316) and touchdowns (43), making him one of the top fantasy quarterbacks. It will likely be tough for Brady to throw for 40 touchdowns this season, but he’s still one of the best and most consistent fantasy QBs.
It’s hard to argue with that analysis — especially the last line, given the Buccaneers’ difficult early-season schedule. Of course, Brady has defied the odds for so long and produced over 25 fantasy points per game as a Buccaneer — not to mention, Tampa has once again reloaded his offensive weapons. If six or seven QBs not named Brady go off the board, anytime after the end of the sixth round seems like a good time to pick the GOAT.
