When you're on the clock for your fantasy football draft in 2022, some decisions are more difficult than others, especially when two players, like QBs Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, are so close together in their overall rankings and average draft positions (ADP).
Here's helping you make those tough calls on whom to take in tricky tossups. At quarterback, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes, in some order, are the clear top three fantasy options for the upcoming NFL season, but who do you take next as a QB1 at the beginning of the second tier, Jackson or Murray? Let's break down who's the better pick:
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2022 fantasy cheat sheet
Lamar Jackson fantasy outlook, projection 2022
2021 results: QB15 based on overall points, QB7 based on average points
Jackson missed a total of five games with injury and illness last season, leaving him short of 3,000 yards passing again. He threw for just 16 TDs with 13 interceptions. He fell well short of a third consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season with only two more TDs there.
When Jackson was on the field, he still produced like a borderline top-half QB1. Consider when he was out, Tyler Hundley and Josh Johnson combined for 1,385 passing yards, 304 rushing yards, seven total TDs.
2022 PPR RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Top 200 | Superflex
The Ravens have upgraded their offensive line and have their traditional running game ready to provide Jackson with more reliable support, as JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards are on the mend after neither played a down last season. Baltimore saw a drop of 592 rushing yards from 2020 to '21.
The overall numbers are available for Jackson to live up the QB4 rebound billing. He lost big-play wide receiver Marquise "Hollywood" Brown, but he still has prime top targets in tight end Mark Andrews and second-year wideout Rashod Bateman. He also has a fast-developing connection with James Proche.
2022 STANDARD RANKINGS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Top 200 | Superflex
Jackson is fully healthy and by all accounts has again improved as a passer ahead of his fifth season. Whether he gets his new lucrative contract extension before the season or later, there's a source of motivation to justify it with a stellar statistical performance.
2022 FANTASY SLEEPERS:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | One from each team
Kyler Murray fantasy outlook, projection 2022
2021 results: QB10 based on overall points, QB4 based on average points
There were two reasons why Murray crashed from his QB2 overall finish in 2020. One was getting just 10 healthy games from veteran go-to wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The other was the fact that while he ran much less, his rushing production was just about halved (819 yards to 423 yards, 11 TDs to five). Murray himself also missed three games.
2022 RANKINGS TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs
Hopkins, at most, will play 11 games in '22 after serving a PED suspension early. Brown got traded from the Ravens to get reunited with Murray, his college QB at Oklahoma, but he's an inefficient big-play threat vs. the all-around star Hopkins is. Murray wants to be known as a passer first and a runner second, while the Ravens and Jackson are more embracing of his dynamic athleticism as a staple of their offense.
The Cardinals' other weaponry is diverse, including wide receivers A.J. Green and Rondale Moore and tight end Zach Ertz. While Moore steps into the slot-heavy role vacated by Christian Kirk, Darrel Williams replaces Chase Edmonds in the complementary backfield receiving role to James Conner.
2022 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/STs | Kickers | Overall
While Jackson should bump up to more than 3,000 passing yards, Murray's first three seasons suggest he will remain under 4,000 passing yards. Then it comes to down to rushing production and who can shoot past 30 combined TDs.
Even though it might seem Murray got an upgrade with Brown, there's more reason to believe it will more status quo for him with a solid floor as QB1. There are just more factors in Jackson's favor to outproduce Murray.
The pick is ... Jackson
To get RotoBaller's take on Jackson vs. Murray -- or any four players you might be considering in your draft -- check out their exclusive "Who to Draft?" tool below:
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