Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels went 1-2 at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft. But when should fantasy managers pick the promising rookie quarterbacks in drafts this season?
Williams and Daniels have both received plenty of preseason buzz as they've looked great executing two exciting offenses that should be much-improved. Williams saw the Bears reload their key weapons, while Daniels got attached to an ideal scheme with the Commanders. As the two most recent Heisman Trophy-winners, they are positioned to keep putting up pleasing stats like they did as dynamic dual threats in college.
Despite their lofty status in April, neither Williams nor Daniels is a top-10 QB pick in August. Let's break down which rookie is the better fantasy value pick as a rising draft sleeper.
DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: 2024 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
Caleb Williams' 2024 fantasy ranking, ADP
Williams has been as high as QB12, which would be the last starting spot in many leagues. According to Fantasy Pros' consensus rankings, he is currently the QB14 but has an average draft position of QB13. That would make him more of a solid back-end starting option in deeper leagues and priority asset in two-QB and Superflex leagues.
Jayden Daniels' 2024 fantasy ranking, ADP
Daniels has risen up to QB11 in the rankings, now two spots ahead of Williams with the 49ers' Brock Purdy in between them. Drafters are a little lower on Daniels, as his ADP is QB12. Either way, that puts Daniels within late starter range in traditional most-sized one-QB leagues.
2024 POSITION TIERS & DRAFT STRATEGY:
QB | RB | TE | D/ST
Caleb Williams' fantasy outlook
The best fantasy season under Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron came from Geno Smith, who finished as the average QB10 after posting 4,282 passing yards and 30 TDs in Seattle in 2022. Smith padded his stats with 366 yards rushing and another TD. That's a reasonable floor for Williams, who will be playing with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, fellow first-round rookie Rome Odunze, running back D'Andre Swift and tight ends Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett.
Williams has better downfield arm talent than Smith. He is also better at making plays off script, either buying time for big passers or scrambling for key yardage. Williams can do more as a runner, including calling his own number near the goal line.
There's a real path to more than 30 total touchdowns for Williams. Throwing for 4,000 yards and adding 400 rushing also seems reasonable. Depending on scoring formats, Williams can average 18-20 fantasy points per game.
2024 PPR RANKINGS
Top 250 Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Jayden Daniels' fantasy outlook
Daniels jumps into a Commanders offense called by Kliff Kingsbury. In four seasons with Kingsbury in Arizona, these were Kyler Murray's average QB scoring finishes: 12th, 6th, 4th, 9th. Keep in mind that Murray took off those last three seasons thanks to having a clear No. 1 wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins.
Daniels will be let loose to run. He also has a cannon of an arm with Terry McLaurin leading a rebooted slew of diverse weapons. The Commanders also invested well in the offensive line. Daniels has a natural high ceiling for his first NFL season as he likely makes it a two-man race with Williams for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Murray's highs with the Cardinals with Kingsbury were 3,971 passing yards, 37 total TDs and 819 rushing yards, all in 2020. A 3,600-30-600 line is reasonable in relation to that. That would push Daniels into scoring 20-23 fantasy points per game, elevating him into mid QB-1 scoring (QB6 or QB7) at worst.
2024 FANTASY AUCTION VALUES (PPR & STANDARD)
Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF/ST | K
Should you draft Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels?
With their values crossing over to become closer to equal in drafts, there's no question Daniels, as more of a "cheat code" running QB than Williams, is the better draft value based on both floor and ceiling.
There's a strong history of recent parallel fantasy production with Murray and Kingsbury, while Waldron had some up-and-down results with Smith. Both Williams and Daniels are being under-drafted. The latter's upside, however, makes him the draft pick who will provide better return on investment.
Geiting Daniels in around the seventh round (or even a little earlier) is the choice over Williams in the eight round.
2024 STANDARD, NON-PPR RANKINGS
Top 250 Overall | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K
