Who will win the FedEx St. Jude Championship? Odds, best bets, expert sleeper picks & more for the event at TPC Southwind

The FedExCup playoffs begin this weekend with the St. Jude Championship — also known as the Northern Trust — held at TPC Southwind in Memphis. Sporting News has all the betting odds, best bets, sleepers, and course information you will need to prepare for this exciting event. 

With the PGA TOUR season all wrapped up, the top-122-ranked golfers will now tee off Thursday in hopes of finishing in the top 70 in the FedExCup standings. The 70 with the most FedExCup points — combined from the season and the St. Jude Classic — will move on to next week's BMW Championship at the Wilmington Country Club in Delaware. The top 30 FedExCup points leaders following the BMW Championship will advance to the final playoff event, The Tour Championship at East Lake in Atlanta. From there, a champion will be crowned. Got all that? 

With a star-studded field, as well as a $15 million pot at the end of this three-tournament playoff rainbow, golf enthusiasts should be in for a real treat over the next few weeks. All eyes will certainly be on Tony Finau, who enters Thursday's playoff-opener as the most blazing-hot golfer in the world. The 15-year pro won each of his past two starts, the 3M Open and the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and could make some serious noise once again this postseason. 

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Plenty of other big names will also tee it up this weekend, including World Golf Rankings leader Scottie Scheffler, superstar and OWGR No. 4 Rory McIlroy, Open Championship winner and OWGR No. 2 Cameron Smith, and reigning FedExCup playoff champion and OWGR No. 3 Patrick Cantlay. 

So, who will win the St. Jude Championship? Let's break down the latest tournament odds, best bets, and sleepers for this exciting midsummer playoff tournament.

FedEx St. Jude Championship: Odds board

All odds via DraftKings

FedEx St. Jude Championship 2022: Best bets

Scottie Scheffler (+1400)

Scheffler has done just about everything well this season, which helped him finish the TOUR atop the FedExCup and OWGR rankings. His incredible 72.2-percent greens-in-regulation percentage (first on the TOUR) and tremendous 4.64 birdie average (4th) helped him finish first or second in a whopping eight tournaments this season. Nobody has avoided hazards better than Scheffler. His driving, approach, and around-the-green skills make him an easy favorite to back.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1400)

Fitzpatrick has enjoyed a breakout year, winning the U.S. Open at TCC Brookline and finishing third overall in Strokes Gained: Total. Nobody has been better from tee-to-green or in scrambling mode, and only McIlroy has a better scoring average than Fitz's 69.06. A FedExCup playoff victory would continue what has been a dream run for the 27-year-old, who has two career top-six finishes at TPC Southwind including a fourth place finish in 2019. During that '19 run, he stated that the Memphis course probably suits him "more than most." Bet Fitz with confidence.

FedEx St. Jude Championship: Top value bets

Will Zalatoris (+2200)

Zalatoris tied with Scheffler for second at the U.S. Open, narrowly losing to Fitzpatrick. Like Scheffler and Fitzpatrick, Zalatoris thrives on complex and highly challenging courses like Brookline and Southwind. He's a master of the approach-the-green game, with the best SG: Approach on the TOUR over the past six months. He finished T8 at this course last year, and he should be able to build off that effort this weekend. 

Collin Morikawa (+3000) 

Morikawa placed in the top 10 in seven different tournaments this season, six of which were T5 or better. His .894 SG: Approach-the-Green ranked fourth on the TOUR, and his tee-to-green skills have been quite strong, as well. He very quietly ranks eighth in the OWGR and 14th with a 69.8 TOUR scoring average. Morikawa was in the mix until the latter stages of multiple majors, finishing fifth at both the U.S. Open and the Masters. He's a great bet at +3000 or longer.

FedEx St. Jude Championship 2022: Top sleeper/longshot

Keegan Bradley (+10000)

Bradley enjoyed six top-10 finishes this TOUR, and his ball-striking and approach skills have been on point. He also has a great track record around-the-green on Bermuda grass courses. A modest wager on Bradley +10000 — or even +700 to place top 10 — could pay off handsomely. 

FedEx St. Jude Championship 2022: Best bets to place

Rory McIlroy (+260 top five)

McIlroy's +900 to win outright on DK seems devoid of value — you might seek better odds elsewhere if you're picking him to win. However, betting him +260 to place top five seems pretty appealing. The OWGR No. 4 has once again demonstrated his across-the-board skills this season, placing top five in six of 14 tournaments and leading the TOUR in SG (2.295). Sure, he struggled in the past couple Northern Trusts, but he still has the driving, approach, and around-the-green skills to bounce back this time around (he tied for fourth at Southwind in '19). This is some great low-risk chalk.

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Patrick Cantlay (+150 top 10) 

Cantlay won it all in the 2021 FedEx playoffs, he's ranked No. 5 in the FedExCup standings, and he enjoyed a TOUR-leading 10 top-10 finishes this season. His past three tournaments this TOUR were T4, T8, and T2. Cantlay just missed the top 10 at St. Jude last year, finishing T11 before winning the BMW Championship and TOUR Championship. His elite scrambling skills could come in handy on this challenging, hazard-filled course. You can't go wrong betting on such a clutch and all-around talented player. 

Tony Finau (+400 top five) 

Nobody in the sport has been hotter than Big Tone since late July. The lumbering 6-4 Utah native won each of his past two tournaments this season — the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic — and placed in the top four in four of his final seven tourneys. He hit greens in regulation at a whopping 71.3-percent clip this season and finished top 12 in SG in off-the-tee, tee-to-green, approach, and total. He also won the Northern Trust last year in New Jersey. Ride the Finau wave! 

FedEx St. Jude Championship 2022: Course breakdown for TPC Southwind

TPC Southwind notoriously serves as one of the top 10 or 15 most challenging courses on the PGA TOUR. A par-70 measuring 7,244 yards, the course features Bermuda-grass greens and rough. Water can be found on 11 of the 18 holes, combining with a grand total of 94 bunkers to make for a hazard-filled endeavor.

The green-in-regulation percentage at TPC Southwind is a haunting 59.8-percent compared to the TOUR average of 65.8-percent. Not surprisingly, the double-bogey-or-worse rate is also much higher than most PGA TOUR stops, as the fairways and greens have both proven very challenging for even the greatest golfers to hit.

The weather forecast looks promising for this weekend, so the players will have only themselves to blame if they get themselves into trouble. Ball-striking, approach shots, and around-the-green skills will be vital all weekend, as escaping the tall rough can be a brutal task. With tiny greens and myriad hazards, scrambling will also come into play in a major way. It should be a fascinating weekend and a fantastic start to the FedExCup playoffs.