As college basketball nears, so too does prediction season, which is the perfect time to make bold predictions about the 2019-20 campaign.
Narrowing down a list of potential national championship contenders is among the most popular of preseason traditions. Not often, though, will you find a list based on the statistical makeup of each of the previous 17 national champions.
Well, today is your lucky day.
MORE: Sporting News' preseason top 25
I have discovered a five-piece set of criteria that each of the previous 17 national champions have met, dating all the way back to 2002-03. The criteria includes each of the following: general program strength, the presence of a notable guard or shooter, an experienced frontcourt member, success in the previous season and a strong incoming recruiting class.
The criteria is, admittedly, specific; but it has to be in order for the previous 17 champions to check each of the boxes. While I'm not suggesting a guard starting 20 games instead of 19 is the difference between competing for a championship and landing in the NIT, there's something to be said about why the criteria are so exact.
That's my disclaimer.
As I tweeted on Oct. 14, only one team in the entire country meets the criteria this season: Maryland.
I discovered a criteria that each of the previous 17 college basketball national champions have met.
— Eli Boettger (@boettger_eli) October 14, 2019
The only team that meets the criteria heading into the ‘19-20 season?
Maryland.
Here’s the checklist: pic.twitter.com/DlkaV6BCGT
Let's go over the five pieces of criteria, how Maryland meets them, and why they're included.
1. KenPom ranking
Criteria: Ranked among the top 20 programs all-time in the KenPom era.
Maryland: Currently sits 14th all-time in KenPom's program rankings.
Reasoning: The general consensus is that only a handful of teams can legitimately compete for a title on an annual basis. Since the tournament expanded to its current format in 1985, only 18 different programs have won the championship. On occasion, you see first-time champions (a la Virginia in April), but a program that has already won a championship is more likely to win again. Maryland won it all in 2002.
Recent example: Four of the top five teams in KenPom's program rankings have won a national championship since 2008.
2. Lead guard/go-to shooter
Criteria: A player who started 20-plus games the previous season who is either 1) 6-3 or shorter with a usage rate above 20 percent or 2) shot at least 40 percent on 130 3-point attempts the previous season.
Maryland: Anthony Cowan checks in at 6-0 and recorded a usage rate of 25.8 last season, per KenPom.
Reasoning: Guard play is huge in the NCAA Tournament. Every championship contender will come across high-leverage situations where it needs a key bucket or a play out of its point guard.
Recent example: Virginia leaned heavily on strong guard play in its 2019 title run. Upperclassmen Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome led the Cavaliers with a combined 199 3-pointers on a 41.5 percent clip on the season. The backcourt duo combined for 40 points in the championship game.
3. Experienced forward
Criteria: A player 6-7 or taller who started 20-plus games the previous season and is either an upperclassman or recorded a minutes-played percentage greater than 50 percent the previous season.
Maryland: Jalen Smith checks in at 6-10 and, per KenPom, recorded a minutes-played percentage of 64.4 percent last season.
Reasoning: As important as guard play is in the tournament, every team needs a presence down low. Whether it's in the pick-and-roll game, grabbing boards or altering shot attempts, a lack of an interior force can cause things to unravel in March.
Recent example: In 2016-17, North Carolina's Justin Jackson returned for his junior year after starting 38 games the previous season. Jackson had 16 points, four rebounds, three assists and two blocks to help pace the Tar Heels to the championship over Gonzaga.
4. Something to build on
Criteria: Ranked in the top 60 in KenPom the previous season and was either 1) top 30 in adjusted offense or adjusted defense rank or 2) top 60 in both adjusted offense and defense rank.
Maryland: Finished 24th in KenPom last season. The Terps were 31st in adjusted offense and 21st in adjusted defense rank.
Reasoning: Each of the previous 29 national champions were high-major teams. UNLV, out of the Big West, is the most recent mid-major national champion, cutting down the nets in 1990. Additionally, the top three seeds have combined to win 31 of the past 34 titles.
Recent example: Each of the past 17 national champions returned at least two players who started at least 20 games the previous season. Villanova's Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges started 36 and 33 games, respectively, in the 2017 season and returned the following year to guide the Wildcats to six double-digit victories in the NCAA Tournament.
5. Incoming talent
Criteria: Had a top-80 incoming recruiting class on 247Sports.
Maryland: Slotted 28th overall in 24/7Sports' Class of 2019 rankings.
Reasoning: A top-80 class doesn't seem like much, but there are still plenty of tournament-caliber teams that don't consistently bring in quality recruits. Fresh, young talent paired with veteran leadership usually bodes well in March.
Recent example: Duke's trio of Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow and Jahlil Okafor led a rare, freshmen-led group to the national championship in 2015. The three combined for 44 points and 17 rebounds en route to the victory over Wisconsin in the national title game.
MORE: Takeaways from AP's preseason top 25 poll
What 2019-20 teams meet the criteria?
The table below shows the top 15 teams from Sporting News' preseason top 25 rankings, and which categories they meet from the criteria.
| Team | Top-20 Program | Lead Guard/Shooter | Experienced Forward | Previous KenPom Cut-Off | Top-80 Recruiting Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | Y | Y | Y | Y | |
| Kentucky | Y | Y | Y | ||
| Kansas | Y | Y | Y | ||
| Florida | Y | Y | Y | ||
| Duke | Y | Y | Y | ||
| Louisville | Y | Y | Y | Y | |
| Virginia | Y | Y | Y | Y | |
| Memphis | Y | ||||
| Villanova | Y | Y | Y | Y | |
| Ohio State | Y | Y | Y | Y | |
| North Carolina | Y | Y | Y | Y | |
| Oregon | Y | Y | Y | Y | |
| Maryland | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| Gonzaga | Y | Y | Y | ||
| Texas Tech | Y | Y | Y | Y |
Among the teams that narrowly missed:
- Michigan State would have met the criteria if Nick Ward had returned to school or if Xavier Tillman had started 20 games last season (he started 14).
- Louisville would have met the criteria if Dwayne Sutton had converted 40 percent of his 3-pointers last season (Sutton shot 34.8 percent from deep).
- Virginia would have met the criteria if Kihei Clark had a usage rate of 20 percent last season (Clark's usage rate was 12.9 percent).
- Villanova would have met the criteria if either Collin Gillespie or Saddiq Bey had converted 40 percent of their 3-pointers last season (Gillespie shot 37.9 percent; Bey shot 37.4 percent)
- Ohio State would have met the criteria if Luther Muhammad had a usage rate of 20 percent last season (Muhammad's usage rate was 17.5 percent)
- North Carolina does not have a guard returning this season who recorded 20-plus starts last season.
- Oregon would have met the criteria if Kenny Wooten had returned to school or if Francis Okoro had recorded a minutes-played percentage of 50 percent (Okoro's minutes-played percentage was 32.8 percent).
- Texas Tech would have met the criteria if Jarrett Culver had returned to school.
The biggest resistance the criteria has faced to this point is directed towards Terps coach Mark Turgeon, who has had his fair share of disappointing NCAA Tournaments. Turgeon has guided Maryland to the tournament four out of his eight seasons in Maryland.
In 2015, Maryland was a No. 4 seed and narrowly escaped Valparaiso in the first round before losing to No. 5 West Virginia. The following season, the Terrapins reached the Sweet 16 with victories over 12th-seeded South Dakota State and 13th-seeded Hawaii before getting leveled by Kansas. The 2017 campaign ended with a first-round loss to 11th-seeded Xavier. In 2018, Maryland lost on a game-winning shot in the Round of 32 to LSU.
Our perceptions of these coaches can change over the course of a few games, though. Just a year ago, Virginia's Tony Bennett had a reputation of not being able to win it all in March, especially after his team became the first No. 1 seed to ever lose to a 16-seed in 2018. The Cavaliers managed to turn it around and now sit atop the mountain as the defending champs for the 2019-20 season.
Like I said: The criteria is extremely specific, but it has held true for the last 17 national champions. And since Maryland is the only team this season to meet the criteria, it should serve as an alert to keep the team on our national radar.
Regardless of how the season unfolds, the Terrapins have the pieces to make a run in the tournament. Can they do it? Well, that's why they play the games.