After a fun start to the 2022 college football season with Week 0, we have a full slate of games lined up on Saturday for Week 1. After scouring the sportsbooks and looking into a ton of tremendous matchups nationwide, we have pinpointed a handful of player props with solid betting value.
Read on to see why we like Oregon quarterback Bo Nix this weekend, and why some big plays against Georgia should help him reach his passing yards OVER. We will also detail three other OVERs we like going into what should be a fun weekend, including an additional two QB props and one rushing prop that should catch your eye.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Saturday's College Football Best Bets: Advice, picks, odds for Week 1
Oregon QB Bo Nix OVER 187.5 passing yards (-119)
The last time we saw Nix on the field, he was under center for the Auburn Tigers. Nix is now in the Pac-12 and playing for Oregon, who will face off against the reigning-champion Georgia Bulldogs in the Chick-Fil-A kickoff. The Ducks are double-digit underdogs, and need Nix to play his best if they want to pull off the upset.
The good news for Oregon is that Nix has faced the Bulldogs multiple times in his college career. In three games against Georgia, Nix has completed 56.3 percent of his passes for 639 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions. He recorded over 187.5 passing yards in two of those three games. Don't expect Nix to air it out completely against the Bulldogs, but this number seems too low for the first game of the year. Bet the OVER with confidence.
Boston College QB Phil Jurkovec OVER 1.5 TD passes (+106)
Sticking with the quarterback player props, Jurkovec is looking to stay healthy this season after missing some time last year with a hand injury. The 6-5 signal caller will open up the season against Rutgers, whose defense proved susceptible to aerial attacks last season. The Scarlet Knights allowed 1.9 TD passes per game, which ultimately ranked 31st in the country.
Rutgers returns six starters on defense from last year's team, which might help its secondary take a step forward. However, Jurkovec will be looking to get stud wideout Zay Flowers involved early and often, and the Scarlet Knights may struggle to contain him. Jurkovec only threw for more than 1.5 touchdown passes twice last season, but he had several games with at least two TDs in 2020. The OVER with plus-odds feels like a strong bet here.
UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet OVER 105.5 rushing yards (-115)
Charbonnet enjoyed a breakout junior season for the Bruins in 2021, finishing third in the Pac-12 in rushing yards (1,137) and fourth in rushing touchdowns (13). The 6-1 running back will look to carry that momentum into the regular-season opener against Bowling Green on Saturday, in what should be a plus-matchup. The Falcons allowed 187.9 rushing yards per game last year, which ranked 29th in the country, and nine Bowling Green defenders return this season. Last season, Charbonnet logged seven games with more than 105.5 rushing yards, including a 106-yard effort in Week 1 against Hawaii.
Florida QB Anthony Richardson to score OVER 0.5 rushing touchdowns (+102)
We're going to bank on the dynamic dual-threat to score a rushing touchdown on Saturday night against the Utes. Richardson is making his second-career start at QB for the Gators, but that should not deter college football fans from placing a bet on him to score. As we saw last season, he has a chance to score a rushing touchdown anytime he gets into open space. Last season, Richardson had 401 rushing yards on just 51 attempts and three scores as a backup. With Dameon Pierce now in the NFL and the Gators featuring a young backfield, Gators head coach Billy Napier will more than likely put his QB in a position to succeed.
UNC WR Josh Downs OVER 81.5 receiving yards (-117)
By Nick Musial
Downs is North Carolina's bonafide No. 1 receiver and routinely garners a high target share. Downs got off to a solid start in the Tar Heels' 56-24 win over Florida A&M, hauling in nine passes for 78 yards and two TDs. He wasn't able to eclipse 81.5 receiving yards in Week Zero, as his average catch length was only 8.7 yards compared to his 13.2 clip last season. With the Tar Heels pegged as slight underdogs in a game with a fairly high total (55.5) it's unlikely UNC runs the football as much as they did last week (40 carries, 314 yards). As a result, look for a higher receiving yard output from the preseason All-ACC WR.
UPDATE: Downs (lower body) will not play today vs. Appalachian State.
Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel OVER 2.5 passing TDs (+123)
By Nick Musial
Gabriel was one of the more notable transfer QBs this offseason, leaving UCF to reunite with former offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby at Oklahoma. Gabriel's highest passing yard output (3,653 yards) came in '19 when Lebby was his OC. Oklahoma is a rather large favorite against UTEP (-31) as the Sooners are expected to score their fair share. Look for Gabriel and Lebby to light up the scoreboard in Norman, resulting in three-plus TDs passes for the big-armed lefty.
Arkansas RB Raheim Sanders OVER 0.5 rushing TDs (-145)
By Nick Musial
Sanders' odds to score a TD sit at a 59.18 percent implied probability, and we actually think he has a higher probability of scoring a rushing TD today. Sanders will be the Razorbacks' top RB in '22. He posted a respectable 75.4 offensive grade last season per PFF and now that he'll assume a much bigger workload, look for him to land in the endzone with a rushing TD in Week 1.
USC WR Jordan Addison UNDER 95.5 receiving yards (-115)
By Nick Musial
Addison, the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner for the most outstanding WR has since transferred from Pittsburgh to USC via the transfer portal. Addison doesn't get too big of a downgrade at QB going from Kenny Pickett to Caleb Williams, but it's tough to assume such a smooth transition for the duo. He's also running routes alongside other talented WRs including Mario Williams and Brenden Rice which could result in fewer targets relative to last season. Addison's going to have another effective season, but there's a chance he gets off to a slower-than-expected start.
Kentucky QB Will Levis OVER 0.5 interceptions thrown (+146)
By Nick Musial
Levis enters the '22 season with a good deal of hype, and most of it is warranted as the 6-3, 232-pound quarterback elevated Kentucky's offense in last season's 10-3 finish. Levis graded out 21st among 294 QBs per PFF in total offensive grade, but a decent chunk of that grade baked in his elite running ability. Levis still needs to improve on his accuracy in intermediate and deep throws and has the tendency to make throws to the opposing defenses from time to time. Levis sported a 24:13 TD-to-INT rate last season, and we think there's a chance he makes a mistake in the air today. Levis is also missing his top RB Chris Rodriguez, which could result in the Wildcats airing out the football more than they normally would.
Notre Dame WR Braden Lenzy OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
By Nick Musial
Lenzy, Notre Dame's primary slot WR, has the chance to eclipse 39.5 receiving yards on Saturday night. With the Fighting Irish likely to be in a negative game script, QB Tyler Buchner's going to have to make plays with his arm. Notre Dame is fairly thin a the WR position, and outside of TE Michael Mayer, Lenzy's likely going to be Buchner's second-highest targeted pass catcher.
