On paper, the matchup between the Fever and Sun shouldn't be too close.
The Sun secured the No. 3 seed behind the stingiest defense in the WNBA. Alyssa Thomas has led Connecticut to two finals appearances and three semifinals over the past five years. The No. 6 Fever haven't been to the playoffs since 2016, and their starting lineup has a combined zero games of playoff experience.
Despite those obvious edges for the Sun, this series has the potential to be a lot closer than it first appears.
The Fever are a much better team than their 20-20 record indicates. In fact, their 9-5 record after the All-Star break (including a loss in their last game where they pulled their starters early due to playoff seeding being locked) was actually better than the 10-6 record posted by the Sun. That stretch included an 84-80 Fever win over the Sun on Aug. 28, which was their lone victory against Connecticut over four regular-season meetings.
Here's how the Fever maintain their momentum from the end of the year and give the Sun a run for their money.
MORE: Inside the budding rivalry between Caitlin Clark and DiJonai Carrington
How Caitlin Clark and the Fever can beat the Sun
Let someone else besides Caitlin Clark bring the ball up
It may sound counterintuitive to take the ball out of by far the Fever's most dynamic ballhandler in Clark, but DiJonai Carrington is one of the league's best perimeter defenders and has guarded Clark better than anyone this season. Clark has had a lot of trouble even bringing up the ball against Carrington's suffocating pressure.
Put aside the off-court stuff for a minute. Watching DiJonai Carrington guard Caitlin Clark is going to be electric. pic.twitter.com/k8MHjAWVhB
— Steph Noh (@StephNoh) September 17, 2024
The Sun may try to ramp up the pressure even more, picking Clark up as soon as she receives an inbound pass and staying glued to her at all times. That's a very common playoff strategy employed against elite ballhandlers across all leagues.
The easy answer for the Fever is to have someone else bring the ball up, passing it to Clark once she gets past halfcourt. This would allow Clark to conserve her energy, which has proven to be extremely important in getting her to play at her best. It would also give the Fever more of the shot clock to work with and keep them playing fast, which is when they are by far their most dangerous.
MORE: Here's the difference between Caitlin Clark being MVP and struggling rookie
Utilize Caitlin Clark away from the ball
Just because Clark doesn't start with the ball doesn't mean that she wouldn't get a ton of touches.
Having Clark start off the ball would allow the Fever to lean into some of the more interesting parts of their offense. They've had a ton of success recently by incorporating more Iverson cuts for her and using her away from the ball in ways similar to what the Warriors do with Stephen Curry.
Clark is capable of being deadly when she flies around screens, and Fever coach Christie Sides has seen firsthand how effective that is. That strategy may also force the Sun to switch on those screens, allowing Clark to go at lesser defenders than Carrington.
Keep feeding Lexie Hull
Hull has been one of the secret catalysts for the Fever's improvements. Since entering the starting lineup in that game against the Sun, Indiana has gone 6-4.
Hull has been one of the hottest shooters in the WNBA during that stretch, hitting a stunning 58.3 percent of her 3s, playing great defense and contributing on the offensive glass.
All of that has made Hull one of the league's best glue players and someone that the Fever need on the floor to be at their best. When Hull has been on the court, the Fever have outscored opponents by 1.9 points per 100 possessions. When she's been off, they've gotten crushed by 7.1 points per 100 possessions.
MORE: Debunking theory that Caitlin Clark benefits from generous scorekeeping
Get Aliyah Boston going in the short roll
Clark is going to receive a lot of defensive attention when she tries to run pick-and-rolls. Teams were trying to send two defenders at her in those scenarios frequently toward the beginning of the year, and she turned it over a lot as she learned to adjust to that strategy.
The inflection point for the Fever came as Boston grew more comfortable as a release valve in those situations. Her decision-making has improved a ton since the beginning of the year, and Indiana has had success zipping the ball around once Clark creates that initial advantage for them.
Clark is going to get her offense in this series no matter what the Sun do. She's too good of a player to stop. But the Fever need contributions from their supporting cast like Hull, Boston and Kelsey Mitchell if they want to win this series.
If those three show up alongside Clark, then the Fever have already shown that they have enough to beat the Sun.
