The reigning AFC champion and third-seeded Chiefs begin their quest for another deep playoff run on Saturday night, hosting the sixth-seeded Dolphins in prime-time (8:00 p.m. ET, Peacock). These two squads already met once in the regular season, with the Chiefs pulling out a 21-14 victory in Frankfurt, Germany. The Chiefs sit as four-point home favorites, expected to advance to the divisional round, but don’t count out Mike McDaniel's squad even when their backs are seemingly against the wall.
Although the projected cold weather complicates our DFS build, we’ve found plenty of underpriced sleepers and must-starts worthy of a spot in your DraftKings showdown lineup. Let’s get to our picks and hopefully churn out some dough once the final whistle blows.
Before we get into our lineup and strategy, here are the key scoring settings for DraftKings Showdown contests: They're full-point PPR and there are three-point bonuses for 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, and 100 receiving yards. The Captain pick costs 1.5 times a player's original price, but he also gets his point total multiplied by 1.5.
MORE CHIEFS-DOLPHINS: Betting preview | Best player props
Chiefs-Dolphins DraftKings Picks: DFS lineup for wild-card playoff matchup
$50,000 budget, need at least one player from each team.
Captain (1.5x points, 1.5x salary): Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs ($12,000)
In potential zero-degree weather with 20-plus mile-an-hour wind gusts, we're rolling with Pacheco as our Captain. Kansas City’s workhorse running back figures to see plenty of volume in a potential positive game state, giving him an outside chance to end the game as a leading fantasy point-getter.
Despite seeing 16 carries against Miami in Week 9, Pacheco ended his night with only 6.6 fantasy points, failing to record a reception on a single target while getting held out of the end zone.
In Saturday's rematch, we expect Pacheco to be a bigger factor in the receiving game this time around, especially after hauling in all 11 of his targets over his past two contests. If the wind plays as big of a factor as we expect it to, it could force Patrick Mahomes to rely on his halfback in dump-off situations, boosting Pacheco's floor in PPR formats.
It also doesn’t hurt that Pacheco’s fresh off his most efficient game as a runner in Week 17, rushing for 130 yards on 18 carries against the Bengals (32.5 DK points). Miami has done a fine job against running backs, surrendering the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game, but now that they’re down several key cogs on the edge, we could see Pacheco break off some big runs, potentially leading to a second straight 100-plus yard rushing performance.
MORE DK SHOWDOWN: How to win a Showdown contest
FLEX Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins ($12,800)
Although the wind is likely to hinder both teams' passing attacks, we're putting our faith in Miami’s WR1 against his former squad. Despite a couple of uncharacteristic drops in Miami’s Week 18 loss against Buffalo, Hill continued to see elite usage, totaling 13 targets and translating that into seven receptions for 82 yards and a TD (21.2 DK points).
Hill is as close to a shoo-in for double-digit targets as it gets, with his reliable volume justifying his hefty price tag in a potential negative game script.
FLEX Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins ($11,200)
Since we're shelling out $12,800 to roster Hill, you better believe we’re stacking him with his QB1. Sure, Tagovailoa was flustered in the second half of last week's home loss, but we still have faith in Miami's signal caller to give his squad every chance to extend their season. Tagovailoa’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly to negate Kansas City's pass rush boosts his chances of putting forth a respectable fantasy point showing.
WR Jaylen Waddle is trending in the right direction, along with RB Raheem Mostert, giving Tagovailoa a full complement of weapons at the perfect time. Most DFS users will opt to roll with Mahomes, but we'll go against the grain and ride with one of the game's most efficient QBs (+128.6 EPA; sixth among QBs).
FLEX Harrison Butker, K, Chiefs ($5,400)
Butker's stability (94.3% FG) makes him a worthwhile addition to DFS lineups, especially with the Chiefs struggling to convert their red zone trips into touchdowns. Butker was a big reason why the Chiefs locked up the AFC West in Week 17, making all six of his field goal attempts, good for a whopping 24 DK points. It’s never easy relying on a kicker in a game where 20-plus mile-per-hour winds are expected, but Butker's stable floor (9.1 DK PPG) gives our lineup a chance to remain competitive.
FLEX Justin Watson, WR, Chiefs ($4,400)
Watson has emerged as one of Mahomes' trusted wideouts, playing on at least 54.5% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps in seven of their past eight games down the stretch. While he's primarily utilized as a field-stretcher (17.8 aDOT; second among WRs), he's seen 12 targets over his past three games, and with fellow WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney struggling with drops problems, Watson could put up reliable fantasy numbers for someone priced at just $4,400.
FLEX Durham Smythe, TE, Dolphins ($3,200)
After a three-catch, 30-yard showing in Week 18, Smythe's role could diminish with Waddle and Mostert back in the fold, but with little salary to work with, it's hard to pass up on someone who's run a route on 75% of the Dolphins' dropbacks this season. Smythe also helps complete our Dolphins stack with Tagovailoa and Hill, as his potential low ownership numbers give our lineup some differentiation.
Best Chiefs-Dolphins SuperDraft DFS Picks
As we have every week, we're also listing our favorite single-game DFS plays on SuperDraft.
For those unfamiliar, SuperDraft's DFS scoring involves point multipliers as opposed to traditional salary-capped or tiered contests. A winning lineup will likely feature a strong mix of stud fantasy contributors with 1x-1.6x boosts, as well as matchup-based sleepers with larger multipliers. Each player is assigned a scoring multiplier based on their value as determined by SuperDraft. Users can roster any player in their lineup with no restrictions.
MORE: Win BIG with SuperDraft! Join now and get a free deposit match of $20!
Here are the most notable scoring rules for SuperDraft NFL contests: Half-point PPR, four-point passing TDs, two-point bonuses for 100 rushing yards, 100 receiving yards, and 300 passing yards.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS: How to play SuperDraft
- Champion (+50% points): Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (2.25x)
- Super FLEX: Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs (1.45x)
- Super FLEX: Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs (1.3x)
- Super FLEX: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins (1.2x)
- Super FLEX: Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins (1x)
Our SuperDraft build looks fairly similar to our DraftKings lineup, but without a salary cap, we've opted for a safer build by including Rice and Kelce. It's rare to see Kelce's multiplier in the 1.45x range, as his recent struggles have made for an intriguing buy-low opportunity, while Rice's role continues to increase by the week.
