In the second 2023 NBA Play-in Tournament game on Thursday, the No. 10 seed Thunder will go on the road to play face the No. 9 seed Pelicans at 11:30 a.m. AEST (ESPN).
The Pelicans won the season series (3-1) over the Thunder, with Oklahoma City winning the last matchup on March 11 (110-96). In that game, All-Star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led both teams with 35 points (11-23 FG, 13-13 FT), six rebounds, four steals, and two assists.
Most NBA fans and analysts did not expect the Thunder (40-42) to be in this position, especially after they lost No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren to a season-ending foot injury before the regular season began. Oklahoma City was supposed to be in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes. However, it can punch its ticket to the first round if it can beat the Pelicans and then the loser of Tuesday's Timberwolves-Lakers matchup. The last time the Thunder were in the playoffs was in the bubble in 2020 when they lost in seven games to the Rockets in the first round. Gilgeous-Alexander and Luguentz Dort are the only players left from that squad.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans (42-40) were expected to make a "leap" this year, but between injuries and inconsistent plays at various points of the season, they find themselves in the Play-in Tournament for the second-straight season. Last season, New Orleans defeated the Spurs and Clippers before dropping its first-round series to the Suns.
Can the Pelicans make another push for the eighth seed on Thursday, or will the Thunder keep their season alive for one more game? Below, we'll break down the Thunder-Pelicans matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the NBA Play-In Tournament.
Thunder vs. Pelicans odds, picks, predictions
- Line: Thunder +5.5 ($1.90); Pelicans -5.5 ($1.90)
- Over/Under: OVER 226.5 ($1.90); UNDER 226.5 ($1.90)
- Head to head: Thunder $2.80; Pelicans $1.46
The Pelicans enter Thursday's matchup as 5.5-point favorites due to their success over the Thunder in the regular season and their record at Smoothie King Center (27-14).
Conventional wisdom says the veteran Pelicans will roll to victory, however, the Thunder have thrived as underdogs this season, going 29-21-3 against the spread (22-31 straight up) and 19-11-3 ATS as road 'dogs. Oklahoma City has been a great team to back this season, with a 45-34-3 ATS record (third-best in the NBA behind the Sixers and Jazz).
For the Thunder to pull off the upset, they must limit the Pelicans' points in the paint, as they averaged 53.3 points per game this season (ninth in the NBA). The Thunder don't necessarily have a big that can match up with Jonas Valanciunas, but they have a bunch of guys that can crash the boards, as OKC recorded 51.5 boards per game (13th). What also works in the Thunder's favor is they play fast, ranking sixth in pace (101.1) and scoring 117.5 points per game (fifth in the NBA).
As for New Orleans, they were one of the better teams at home this season, which helped them down the stretch. The Pelicans went 7-4 in their past 11 home games, with their best wins coming against the Clippers and the Grizzlies. They allowed their opponents to score 106.5 points per game in their seven wins. New Orleans was also 6-3-2 ATS over that span and 16-12-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
Ultimately, we like the Pelicans to win this game close, as Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, and Valanciunas will be too much for the Thunder. McCollum has played particularly well this season against OKC, averaging 21.9 points, 9.5 assists, and 6.5 rebounds per game (two gamers), and he has experience taking over in big postseason spots.
Prediction: Pelicans 107, Thunder 104. The Thunder (+5.5) with the line and the game going UNDER the total (226.5)
Best player prop bet for Thunder vs. Pelicans: Luguentz Dort OVER 5.5 rebounds ($2.00)
If the Thunder want to keep it close on Thursday, they will need Dort to make plays all over the floor and be a factor on the boards. This season, the veteran two-way guard is recording 4.6 rebounds per game, but that's been bumped to 6.6 rebounds per game over his past 10 contests.
Out of those 10 games, the 6-foot-3 guard has gone OVER 5.5 rebounds an astounding eight times. This season against the Pelicans, Dort is averaging just 2.5 rebounds per game. However, New Orleans is allowing the 13th-most rebounds per game to SGs this season (6.25). It's not an ideal matchup on paper for Dort, but we are banking on his recent surge to come through for us on a night where he should play more minutes than usual, too.
