Well, now the bulk of the information is in. After a year’s worth of hand-wringing on the subject of tanking, we know the winner of this year’s lottery — the Cleveland Cavaliers, who leapt up from the ninth spot into first overall.
Combine that with the conclusion of the predraft combine in Chicago last week, and we also have some hard numbers by which to size up the players available. With both of those in place, then, here is the most informed mock draft we have been able to put together to date:
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Andrew Wiggins, SF, Kansas
He is an athletic, dynamic scorer who is an immediate threat on the perimeter. He averaged 17.1 points and 5.9 rebounds in college, and though his perimeter shot needs work, he has the ability to beat his man off the dribble and finish in traffic. Certainly, the Cavs will think about going big with this selection, but they also need have needed a small forward since LeBron James departed and probably won’t keep Luol Deng.
2. Milwaukee Bucks: Jabari Parker, PF, Duke
Parker still is something of a tweener to NBA scouts, but he should erase that skepticism once he does the handful of workouts he’ll do. You’ve heard the knocks on his defense, no doubt, but that’s par for the course for young big men. Not a terrible outcome for the Bucks, who could consider Dante Exum here, but also could wind up with a stacked front line.
3. Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid, C, Kansas
How big of a deal is Embiid’s back? That remains a question for front office execs. Before his injury, Embiid was very much in play as the No. 1 pick, and still could be. But if the back scares off Cleveland and Milwaukee, they could be a boon for Philly — Embiid was drawing Hakeem Olajuwon comparisons before they came about, and could be an imposing presence next to Nerlens Noel.
4. Orlando Magic: Noah Vonleh, PF, Indiana
Vonleh was one of the big winners at the predraft camp. He was 6-9.5 in shoes, weighing in at 247 pounds with 7.3 percent body fat. He had a huge wingspan (7-4.25) and the second-biggest hands in combine history (11.75 inches wide). Orlando could look to either Marcus Smart or Dante Exum here, but they may need to lock down a big guy early.
5. Utah Jazz: Dante Exum, PG/SG, Australia
He is still something of a mystery man, but Exum is extremely athletic and good with the ball. He measured at 6-6 in shoes, with a 6-9.5 wing span at the predraft combine — his size and length only intrigued scouts further about him. He can play on the ball or off it, which would give Utah some flexibility with Trey Burke. If Exum is as good as he’s cracked up to be, the Jazz will have some exciting athletic pieces on hand.
6. Boston Celtics: Julius Randle, PF, Kentucky
To hear some tell it, Randle’s arms are so short he should have measured like a T-Rex in Chicago. He didn’t — his wingspan was 7-0. His vertical was nothing special (35.5 inches) but that’s not particularly problematic. This is a guy who averaged 15.0 points and 10.4 rebounds for Kentucky, after all. The Celtics will have options with this pick, but a choice between Randle and Aaron Gordon seems most likely.
7. Los Angeles Lakers: Aaron Gordon, PF, Arizona
Gordon was, predictably, brilliant in the predraft camp, easily ranking tops among big guys in lane agility and vertical leap. His height (6-8.75) and wingspan (6-11.75) were not bad, either, easing some concerns about his size. But we knew all of that about Gordon, just as we know what his chief challenge will be: Developing some polish in his offensive game. But he has plenty of upside for a team badly in need of it.
8. Sacramento Kings: Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State
Smart not only measured well in Chicago (6-3.25 with a 6-9.25 wingspan), he also did well athletically and had the chance to answer questions about the dustup he got into with a fan during OSU’s season. Smart needs tweaks on the offensive end, but he is tough, athletic and big, a rarity for a point guard. He allows for some cross-matching possibilities with current starting point guard, the 5-9 Isaiah Thomas.
9. Charlotte Hornets (from Detroit Pistons): Gary Harris, SG, Michigan State
Much was made of Harris’ poor height measurement — he was 6-4.5 in shoes — but that’s not terribly short in the modern NBA, where combo guards are prevalent on the wing. Harris has high upside as a shooter, and perimeter threats are badly needed here. This is a stroke of luck for the Hornets, who would have only gotten this pick if Detroit fell out of the top eight, and will be able to take guards like Harris, Nik Stauskas or James Young.
10. Philadelphia 76ers (from New Orleans Pelicans): James Young, SG, Kentucky
Young was middle-of-the-pack athletically in Chicago, but his 7-0 wingspan certainly caught some eyes — though Young struggled at times during his season at Kentucky, he did display a smooth lefty shot that he was able to get off over defenders. He also is a good defensive player. Assuming the Sixers go big with their first lottery pick, this would be an ideal place to address their shooting guard hole.
11. Denver Nuggets (from New York Knicks): Zach LaVine, PG/SG, UCLA
LaVine’s numbers at UCLA were hardly impressive. His numbers at Chicago were much different. Obviously, LaVine is going to need some development as far as his skills, but his max vertical was 41.5 inches and he was the most agile and second-quickest player at the camp. He has a tremendous athletic base and is a natural fit for the Nuggets.
12. Orlando Magic (from Denver Nuggets): Nik Stauskas, SG, Michigan
What was up with the 12.1 percent body fat, anyway? It might not hurt Stauskas that he had that extra layer, because he was still able to perform well in the athletic drills, ranking second at his position in lane agility. That hasn’t entirely erased the question of whether Stauskas can defend at an NBA level, but it helped his cause. Orlando is in need of perimeter shooting threats outside of Arron Afflalo.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves: Doug McDermott, SF/PF, Creighton
Depending on with whom you speak, McDermott’s measurements on Thursday were either a disaster or not that damaging at all — he was only 6-7.75. To some, that means he can’t be a power forward and his value takes a hit. To others, he was always going to be a unqiue tweener/shooter/small forward anyway, and in that light, 6-7.75 isn’t so bad. The Timberwolves’ coaching situation is still undecided, but McDermott seems to be the kind of versatile shooter Minnesota needs.
14. Phoenix Suns: P.J. Hairston, SG, D-League
Hairston impressed in Chicago with his shooting and has firmed up his spot in the first round, probably in the top 20. Defense remains a question mark, but he showed his scoring prowess in the D-League and appears athletic enough to develop into a competent defensive player. The Suns are in the market for a big guy, but the options are limited here, and Hairston would fit their roster well.
15. Atlanta Hawks: Rodney Hood, SF, Duke
Hood has a smooth offensive game and appeared poised in Chicago. He may not have a home-run upside, but he can certainly contribute immediately as a small forward who can shoot (he made 42 percent of his 3s last year). That’s just what the Hawks want to see.
16. Chicago Bulls (from Charlotte Hornets): Adreian Payne, PF, Michigan State
Payne was going to skip the combine because of mononucleosis, but he showed up anyway. His measurements looked very good — he was 6-foot-9.75 in shoes, with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and a 9-foot-1 standing reach (third-biggest in both categories). He is an outstanding perimeter shooter, a ready-made contributor as a stretch four.
17. Boston Celtics (from Brooklyn Nets): Dario Saric, SF/PF, Croatia
Saric has the potential to be a lottery pick, but there remain questions about his work ethic. He could go as high as the top 10 if teams are convinced he has matured. He has been a star in Europe since he was a teenager, with a versatile inside-outside game — in 28 league games for Cibona, he averaged 16.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists.
18. Phoenix Suns (from Washington Wizards): Jerami Grant, SF, Syracuse
Grant is long for a small forward, at 6-foot-7.75 with a wingspan of 7-foot-2.75, and if he were polished enough to play the three in the NBA, he would be a lottery pick. But scouts remain unsure — his frame says small forward, but his game says power forward. Still, he has the potential to develop and if he fills out the right way, he could be a versatile threat.
19. Chicago Bulls: Cleanthony Early, SF/PF, Wichita State
Early measured 6-foot-7.25 in shoes, undersize for a power forward, but he logged a 40-inch max vertical leap and was one of the top small forwards when it comes to lane agility. That helped answer questions about whether Early has the athleticism to handle small forwards at the NBA level. The Bulls are going to be in the market for draft-night trades, and this pick might not wind up belonging to them.
20. Toronto Raptors: Tyler Ennis, PG, Syracuse
Scouts are split on Ennis, who was outstanding in the first part of the season but faded down the stretch. The Raptors have depth all around, and though they might be tempted to take a chance on a big guy like Mitch McGary, they could give themselves insurance at point guard in case Kyle Lowry leaves as a free agent.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Dallas Mavericks): Kyle Anderson, SF, UCLA
Anderson stood 6-foot-8.5 during the combine and weighed in at 230 pounds, though his 13.4 percent body fat was third-highest at the combine. He didn’t participate in drills, which adds to the perception that he lacks athleticism.
22. Memphis Grizzlies: Elfrid Payton, PG, Louisiana-Lafayette
The Grizzlies could use some scoring, and someone like T.J. Warren would address that problem. But with Nick Calathes facing a suspension, addressing the point guard spot is a priority, too. Payton is a very quick ballhandler who knows how to make plays.
23. Utah Jazz (from Golden State Warriors): T.J. Warren, SF, N.C. State
Warren is a big-time scorer who averaged 24.9 points and 7.1 rebounds last season, and he has pretty good size at 6-foot-8.25. How his game, which relies on floaters and his knack for scoring, will translate to the NBA is a question mark, but he can provide some punch.
24. Charlotte Hornets (from Portland Trail Blazers). Spencer Dinwiddie, PG/SG, Colorado
Dinwiddie is coming off ACL surgery and hasn’t been able to work out for any teams, but as he pointed out at the predraft combine, he is 6-foot-6 in shoes with a 6-foot-8.25 wingspan, and not many point guards have that size. Oh, and he can shoot — he made 41.3 percent of his 3s before his injury last season, and he made 38.6 percent of his 3-point tries in his collegiate career. That’s sort of important to the Hornets.
25. Houston Rockets: Thanasis Antetokounmpo, SF, D-League
Front-office executives continue to be impressed with Antetokounmpo’s motor, and he showed his athleticism in Chicago. What is becoming increasingly clear is that he has developed into a reliable 3-point shooter. That puts him right in Daryl Morey’s wheelhouse.
26. Miami Heat: Mitch McGary, PF, Michigan
Seen the playoffs lately? Then you know that the Heat need some size. Sure, they could look to gird against the possible loss of Mario Chalmers this summer with a point guard, but point guards are not hard to find. The Heat would benefit from developing a young big man, and McGary — if medical reports on his surgically repaired back look OK — would be the kind of value pick the Heat need to uncover.
27. Phoenix Suns (from Indiana Pacers): Jusuf Nurkic, C, Bosnia and Herzegovina
If there is a chance that the Suns actually make all their draft picks, then they can afford to take a gamble with this one. Nurkic is 19 and plays limited minutes for his team in Croatia. He does not possess much of an offensive game, but he brings legit size at 7 feet tall.
28. Los Angeles Clippers: Glenn Robinson III, SF, Michigan
Robinson helped himself at the combine as he confirmed the athleticism he showed from time to time with the Wolverines. The question is why he does not dominate more with his natural skills. Still, for a Clippers team looking for athleticism on the wing, Robinson is a good pickup.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder: DeAndre Kane, PG, Iowa State
Kane impressed in Chicago with his athleticism, and he measured 6-foot-4.5 with shoes — he is a point guard with legitimate size and defensive ability who happens to be a good perimeter shooter. The downside is that he will be 25 on draft night, which could scare off some teams. But he is a sleeper here.
30. San Antonio Spurs: Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia
At the risk of being cliche, we have the Spurs taking a risk on a young international guy with the final pick of the first round. He is skinny, raw and 18 but already a 7-footer who would have been a likely lottery pick next year.