Remember 2010?
If you’re a Spurs fan, you probably try not to. It was back then that San Antonio was coming off a sweep in the second round of the playoffs at the hands of the Suns, the second of three straight years in which the Spurs would be dispatched from the postseason with no more than four playoff wins. Not only did those of us in the media wonder whether San Antonio’s championship window was closing, but point guard Tony Parker, too, wondered it aloud in the wake of the 2010-11 season.
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You can feel a certain empathy with former Warriors coach and current ABC/ESPN analyst Mark Jackson when, after being asked about the Spurs being back in the NBA Finals, he said, “I'm tired of looking in the crystal ball when it comes to the Spurs. Not just me, but we've all been wrong for quite a while now. We had them dead a couple years ago.”
Indeed, in the 2010 offseason, the Spurs were considering trading Parker to Indiana, targeting the Pacers’ No. 10 draft pick (which Indy later used on Paul George) as well as Pacers forward Troy Murphy and guard Brandon Rush.
Instead, they kept Parker, went back to Indiana for a trade in the following draft and sent George Hill to the Pacers for the No. 15 pick, which was used on Kawhi Leonard. Turns out the four or more years most of us have spent trying to close Spurs’ championship window has been, mostly, a waste of time.
We are 15 years removed from the first championship won by the combination of Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan, and yet, looking at the matchup the Spurs face with the Heat, you’d have to say that San Antonio has the edge here. Not only do the Spurs have homecourt advantage, but they have a variety of lineups and different personnel combinations to counter Miami’s limited rotation.
The Heat will certainly have the best player in the series, LeBron James, who happens to be the best player in the world. Look for the Spurs to throw a variety of looks at him this time around, much like they did last year when they consistently went under screens and allowed James to shoot open midrange jumpers. That worked early in the series, but James will adjust like he did then.
The Heat will also have a healthier, better-prepared Dwyane Wade, who could be something close to the second-best player in this series. Given their top-line talent advantage, the Heat will certainly make this a long series.
But, if the questionable ankle of Spurs point guard Tony Parker proves to be 100 percent, San Antonio has plenty of options to combat the Heat. While we know what Miami will bring into this series, we know that Popovich could pull a surprise or two to give his team an edge — whether it’s starting Matt Bonner (as he did in the West finals), giving Patty Mills 25 minutes (as he did in the conference semis) or letting Boris Diaw play third option (as he did in the opening round).
This series, though, is not entirely about Xs and Os. There is a serious dose of motivation on the Spurs’ side, dating to the way they blew the series against these very Heat in 2013 — the big lead in Game 6, the chance to tie in Game 7.
“With our chemistry this year, it's a little different than last year, deeper bench, I believe, but I feel everybody learned from last year,” guard Danny Green said. “And every loss and win that we've had, we've learned something. We have tried to get better, be the last team standing, we have to be the best, all the little things, perfect, we want to continue to do that. I think at this point we're almost there. We know we're playing the two‑time defending champs and the best team in the league right now. It's not going to be easy. We got to earn it.”
The Heat have an edge in frontline talent. The Spurs have the edge in depth. But the Spurs have a lot that is kicking them in the shorts this time around. That’s an advantage that can’t be underestimated — and besides, as many years as we have been counting the Spurs out, why should we put them on the mat now?
Not this year. The Spurs are going to earn it.
Prediction: Spurs in seven games