Of course, every draft lottery comes with inherent significance—it’s how the league determines the first three picks, after all, and that can influence a franchise’s outlook for about a decade if the circumstances are right.
But this year’s lottery, with a bumper crop of incoming talent available (especially the Top 3 of Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid) and unfamiliar participants like the Celtics and Lakers, was already set to brim with excitement.
MORE: Love could leave as free agent if not traded | Timberlake shot at Sterling
Then came the weekend revelation that had seemed destined for the past year or so—Minnesota star Kevin Love, slated to be a free agent in 2015, informed the team that he will not sign an extension, setting up a trade sweepstakes in which Love is the prize. That sweepstakes will begin in earnest on Tuesday night when the draft order is set and teams with an interest in Love will finally know just what assets they can offer for him.
And so heading into Tuesday, for reasons involving Love and otherwise, the lottery looms large. Here’s what is at stake for these teams:
Bucks
Milwaukee will enter the lottery with the best shot at winning, 25.0 percent overall. That’s the good news. The bad news is that, historically, it rarely works out so well for the team with the best shot at winning—only three times in the last 25 years (1990, 2003, ’04) has the lottery leader actually won the thing.
The Bucks officially have a new ownership group in place, one that will need a new arena built in order to secure the team’s long-term viability in the city, and it has a coach (Larry Drew) and general manager (John Hammond) under pressure with new bosses in town. A win in the lottery, or at least a second-place finish, would be a positive start.
Lakers
The Lakers would like to get involved in the Love doings, and Love, who went to UCLA, has long been rumored to be connected with the Lakers. But there are a couple of problems. One, the Lakers have very few assets to offer the Timberwolves. And, two, Love is more concerned with joining a team ready to win than he is with landing in certain markets.
The Lakers could address the first concern by moving up out of the No. 6 spot on Tuesday, giving the Timberwolves a Top-3 pick. But the Lakers would not be able to offer anything else, and there is no guarantee Love would be happy joining a roster that includes Kobe Bryant and precious little else.
MORE: Phil Jackson eyes Derek Fisher for coach | Mike Epps lies about attending Heat-Pacers
Celtics
This will be the most anticipated lottery night in Boston since 1997, when Tim Duncan was on the board and new coach Rick Pitino was quite sure he was going to land him. Instead, Pitino got Ron Mercer and Chauncey Billups and, well, we know how that turned out.
The Celtics are No. 5 as things stand, but have a 33.42 percent chance of sliding up into the Top 3. That will give the Celtics, who have a stockpile of future first-rounders and some acceptable young talent, the option of piecing together a top-tier bid for Love or simply standing pat and hoping they can draft a franchise player here.
Suns
There is a 1.81 percent chance that this could be a magical Tuesday for Phoenix. The Suns have the No. 14 pick, while Minnesota has No. 13. Should the Suns land one of the Top 3 picks (there’s a 1.81 percent chance of it) not only would they be in the Wiggins-Parker-Embiid wheelhouse, but they would move Minnesota back to the 14th slot, assuming the Timberwolves don’t move up, too.
The Timberwolves owe Phoenix a pick that is Top 13 protected, so, push it to 14, and now the Timberwolves have to give the Suns the 14th pick. Phoenix is actually the most sensible destination for Love, and if the dream scenario works out, the Suns would have a Top 3 pick, plus No. 14, No. 18 (from Washington) and No. 27 (from Indiana). The Suns will be in position to make a good deal for Love even if they don’t get lucky in the lottery, but if they do, they’ll have assets no one else can match.