The MLB Draft has been trimmed down to 40 rounds the past few years.
The draft used to last much longer, though the later rounds rarely produced any sort of impact major-league players. The one well-known exception, of course, is Mike Piazza, the star catcher who was drafted in the 62nd round by the Dodgers in 1988.
What chances do the players selected in Saturday’s 40th round have of actually making the majors? Not good, of course, but it’s far from impossible.
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Let’s look back over the past 25 years, starting with the 1990 draft. In that time, 30 players drafted in the 40th round have made eventually the majors. Eight of those have compiled a WAR (Baseball-Reference calculation) of better than 1.0.
A few notes on those 40th-rounders …
— Current Astros manager Bo Porter went to the Cubs in the 40th round of the 1993 draft. He played in 89 games during his big-league career, compiling a .214 average.
— The 40th round of the 2002 draft was amazing, relatively speaking. Hunter Pence was taken by the Brewers with the 1,189th overall pick, Matt Garza was picked by the Rockies at 1,191st overall and Jonathan Papelbon was selected by the Athletics with the 1,208th pick. Pence was a juco player, Garza was in high school and Papelbon was at Mississippi State, and all three opted against signing a professional contract.
That was the right move for all three future MLB standouts. Pence was a second-round pick in 2004, Garza was a first-rounder in 2005 and Papelbon was fourth-rounder in 2003.
— Brandon Kintzler was a 40th-round pick two years in a row. He opted against signing with the Yankees in 2003 out of juco in California, then signed with the Padres in 2004 out of Dixie State College of Utah. In 124 career relief appearances in the majors, all with the Brewers, Kintzler has a 3.31 ERA. His story is pretty compelling. Quick version: he was released by the Padres in 2006 and shoulder surgery kept him from playing that year. After almost three full seasons playing independent ball, he was given a shot by the Brewers and has become an important part of the Milwaukee bullpen.
— Of those eight players drafted in the 40th round to eventually post a career WAR above 1.0, Kintzler is the only player who actually signed with the team that drafted him. Aaron Rowand, for example, was drafted in the 40th round by the Mets as a shortstop out of high school, didn’t sign and then was a first-rounder in 1998 by the White Sox as an outfielder. Brandon Morrow was a 40th-round pick of the Angels in 2003, didn't sign and became the fifth overall pick of the 2006 draft, by the Mariners.
