The 49ers traded plenty of high future draft picks to select quarterback Trey Lance No. 3 overall in the 2021 draft. Now they need to figure out if it's time to trade Lance in return for a lot less.
Lance is only 23 and has played in just eight games in two previous seasons in San Francisco, starting only four. He also had his promising 2022 cut short early by a major ankle injury that required surgery.
The 49ers have no plans of starting Lance over a healthy Brock Purdy this season. Purdy excelled as a seventh-round rookie late last season and into the playoffs when both Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo were unavailable. There was a slight opening for Lance to start in 2023, but that is closing fast with Purdy healing well from his elbow injury.
Also working against Lance to be the top backup is veteran newcomer Sam Darnold, whom offensive-minded coach Kyle Shanahan likes as an experienced pocket passer in his system.
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So that brings up the question, what is Lance's current value to the 49ers? Here's breaking down whether or not Shanahan and GM John Lynch should reconsider the possibility of trading Lance:
Will the 49ers trade Trey Lance?
Why San Francisco should trade Lance
Lance has a limited and yet unimpressive NFL body of work. But he also is tantalizing as a still-developmental QB, given his inexperience going back to college at North Dakota State, balanced with great arm and athletic upside. If the 49ers use that to their advantage, they would also show a clear commitment to seeing how far they can go with Purdy as their franchise passer.
Just as the 49ers wanted to take an aggressive shot on that raw skill set, there might be another team thinking the same thing more than two years later. San Francisco played one of those teams with Lance on the field in Week 1 of the preseason — Las Vegas.
The Raiders have Garoppolo as their starter now back in Josh McDaniels' system, but Brian Hoyer is the past and Aidan O'Connell isn't yet the future. That would seem to make the most sense as a trade partner, given the Raiders are trying to match the QB ceiling of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert in the AFC West.
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The Texans run an offshoot of the 49ers' offense, but they just took C.J Stroud No. 2 overall in the 2023 draft. The Dolphins do, too, but they need to first figure out what to do with Tua Tagovailoa — though more injury issues with him might prompt more interest from Mike McDaniel around midseason.
Then there's the Rams, who may be looking at the near end with Matthew Stafford and need to think of youthful options beyond rookie Stetson Bennett, who is almost three years older than Lance. The Rams do have former Shanahan associates Sean McVay and Mike LaFleur leading the offense, but the rub is, they also happen to be the 49ers' fading NFC West archrivals.
With most teams set on a starting situation in the short term, there may not been enough viable and desperate suitors for Lance, especially for the 49ers to yield a reasonable return. The 49ers, however, can't afford to close the door should a favorable opportunity knock.
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Why San Francisco should keep Lance
The 49ers are in a unique situation with little overall money invested in their entire QB room with Lance still on his rookie first-round deal in Year 3 and Purdy being the ultimate bargain-bin find going into Year 2. In essence, because Lance has played so little, the 49ers can pay him rookie-like numbers again with a contract beyond his fourth season.
Purdy was fantastic in the offense down the stretch, but it will get tougher vs. defenses now that he has provided an ample sample size to scout. There's no guarantee that he either won't regress or will improve to more exceptional play. Purdy, much like Garoppolo, looks like a good high-floor fit for Shanahan. But Lance could have a higher ceiling.
It's hard to give up on a pet project and the 49ers have no reason to do so this early. Should Purdy not be ready, the 49ers can also rely on Darnold as a "two-way" bridge for him and Lance. That's the luxury they have operating the least QB-dependent offense in the league, given how dominant Christian McCaffrey's rushing attack and the Nick Bosa-led defense can be.
It's easy to already write off Lance as a major bust and call for the 49ers to dump him while they can for whatever they can get. But for now, the risk of keeping him has become more minimal in relation to the reward. The riskier move would be to trade Lance before he's had a healthy chance to tap into his potential.
