Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard are all still franchise-tagged running backs without long-term extensions after Monday's deadline passed with no deals done.
But with their one-year tenders — set up for $10.091 million in guaranteed salary for 2023 — they are by no means underpaid in the short term. Pollard already signed his tender with the Cowboys, so there are no concerns about whether he will play for the team this season.
Barkley and Jacobs, however, haven't signed theirs, and are considering holdouts from training camp. Pollard, a fourth-round pick in the 2019 draft who made fewer than $1 million during his 2022 breakout season, is enjoying more than a 10-times salary increase from his previous salary. In his case, it's easier to play with a one-year tag.
Barkley, the No. 2 overall pick by the Giants in 2018, started his career with a four-year, $31.2 million all-guaranteed contract before earning $7.2 million for his fifth NFL season. Jacobs, the No. 27 pick by the Raiders in the 2019 draft, made just under $12 million over his first four seasons.
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Barkley, Jacobs and Pollard's $10.091 million for 2023 puts them in a three-way tie for seventh at the running back position in terms of average annual value. They are also four spots shy — and $3 million — of cracking the top 10 in total guaranteed money.
Barkley, 26, is coming off his best campaign since his rookie season. He earned his second Pro Bowl trip with 1,650 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns in helping the Giants get to the playoffs. Jacobs, 25, won both the league rushing title (1,653 yards) and scrimmage title (2,053).
Based on those accomplishments, one would think not only that Barkley and Jacobs could demand more, but also that teams would value them more. But the law of supply and demand is not in favor of running backs: In both cases, one big season doesn't merit a mega deal for a high-mileage veteran.
The top three highest-paid running backs in terms of average annual salary are Christian McCaffrey ($16 million), Alvin Kamara ($15 million) and Derrick Henry ($12.5 million). When weighing their established career work, those three have potentially Hall of Fame-caliber resumes the other backs don't have. Nick Chubb, a worthy four-time Pro Bowl workhorse, is fourth with ($12.2 million), while Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones are tied for fifth at $12 million.
In terms of practical guaranteed money, there's no way either Barkley or Jacobs belong in the parameters between No. 1 McCaffrey ($38.16 million) and No. 5 Chubb ($20 million). The next veteran with the most guaranteed money is Austin Ekeler ($15 million).
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The Giants have leadership learning from the Bills and Chiefs, while the Raiders are operating via the Patriots way under Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler. They don't have the makeup of wanting to invest too much at a position with a surplus of versatile talent, even after getting plum returns from their backs.
For a deep position with an ever-increasing elite talent pool — now including rookie first-rounders Bijan Robinson (Falcons) and Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) — there is zero leverage for veteran backs who are not close to the top. Not when the average salary at the position is $2.57 million, per Statista.
Barkley also has had his share of durability issues that would make the Giants hesitant to commit more years — and bigger money — toward him. Jacobs also has missed time over his first four years, though played a full slate in 2022.
Those are other factors beyond how those franchises are wary of running back investments.
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The Cowboys, Giants and Raiders all took advantage of the franchise tag, having a fair value that fell short of top-market. The tag is supposed to buy time for teams to settle on long-term deals and, in the case of running backs, it's not far off from the best average salary and guaranteed money contracts.
Barkley and Jacobs got reasonable raises for their recent spikes in contract years. Pollard by comparison got rewarded more for massive overachievement, to the point he made the once well-compensated Ezekiel Elliott expendable.
With Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette and other notable-name running backs all remaining free agents, there's more working against Barkley and Jacobs than for them. The Giants also drafted Eric Gray this year, while the Raiders are sitting on Zamir White from last year. Both teams also had key rushing success because of improved blocking in 2022: There can be confidence from both they'll find acceptable production replacement.
Running back is a marquee position in the NFL, thanks to the personalities behind prolific performances. The explosion of fantasy football continues to play a big part in that.
The downside, however, is that the position is more about prestige and popularity than getting paid like the best players in the league at scarcer positions. When figuring out the place of Barkley, Jacobs, Pollard, the economics of it all say they are right where they should be.
