The Jets were Sporting News' preseason pick to win Super Bowl 58 because of the combination of an elite defense and Aaron Rodgers upgrading quarterback. With Rodgers going down with a season-ending Achilles' injury early at home in Monday night's Week 1 overtime win over the Bills, it's hard to see that still happening.
While New York's Super Bowl dream is dashed with the dropoff at QB back down to disappointing third-year No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson, the Jets still have started 1-0 with a big opening division win. Although no Rodgers is a big blow, there remains some hope to become an AFC playoff team thanks tot he defense.
Whether it's Wilson or another outside option at QB going forward, here's a look at the floor and ceiling the Jets have for their record in 2023:
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What was the Jets' potential before Aaron Rodgers' injury?
The Jets are tied for first place in the tough AFC East with the also 1-0 Dolphins. Sporting News had New York going 13-4, edging the Bills by two games and the Dolphins by four games. Despite Buffalo losing in Week 1 and Miami being an inconsistent team, it seems like New York is out of the mix to win the division. Don't forget about New England and Bill Belichick after the team challenged reigning NFC champion Philadelphia in defeat.
In an elite QB-loaded AFC, the Jets have gone from a major have back to a familiar spot as a major have-not. Unless Wilson shows some unexpected Trevor Lawrence-like transcendence, the Jets aren't winning 12 or 13 games. Their ceiling has come crashing down, but how about the floor?
What is the Jets' outlook after Aaron Rodgers' injury?
The Jets have a difficult schedule, but their defense gives them an outside shot at double-digit wins (10-7). Their trickiest games left include Week 2 (at Cowboys), Week 4 (vs. Chiefs), Week 6 (vs. Eagles), Week 9 (vs. Chargers), Week 11 (at Bills). They also play the Dolphins twice in a month late, in Weeks 12 and 15. That looks like 2-4 at best without Rodgers.
The good news is the Jets will have a good shot in their other nine games, including the Patriots twice in Week 3 (home) and Week 18 (away). The rest of the slate has the Broncos, Giants, Raiders, Falcons, Texans, Commanders and Browns. Those are all games against limited offenses where the Jets' defense can position the team to win.
Keep in mind the Jets were a potential wild-card contender for much of 2023, until they faded late and finished 7-10. While Rodgers gave them a shot at the best record in the AFC and a six-game improvement, getting better by three games still seems reasonable.
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How will the Jets change without Aaron Rodgers?
The biggest myth about the 2023 Jets was the fact they would suddenly become an elite passing team with Rodgers. The foundation of their offense remains the running game with explosive Breece Hall and savvy Dalvin Cook, behind a line that's stronger in run blocking than pass protection. Rodgers' presence was to facilitate their bevy of versatile playmakers in the passing game, led by go-to second-year wide receiver Garrett Wilson.
Wilson won't unlock those weapons the same way in a new offense for him under Nathanial Hackett. The Jets also went out and got former Packers wideouts Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb to tailor to Rodgers. The Jets might have become a little more aggressive passing with Rodgers, but they can pivot well to 12 personnel (two tight ends) to give Wilson improved protection and also boost the rushing attack. At that position, Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah are one of the league's best complementary 1-2 punches.
Now that Rodgers is down, it's important that Hall stays healthy after his recovery from a torn ACL that cut short his rookie season, one in which he could have challenged Garrett Wilson for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Between Hall and Garrett Wilson, there's plenty of big-play juice around Zach Wilson (or another QB) to make the passing job easier playing off the run and knowing the defense with limit the scoring burden.
For Zach Wilson, the biggest key will be avoiding turnovers to maintain some competent level of efficiency. That's a huge thing the Jets lose in their passing game without Rodgers.
The Jets may no longer be positioned to take the AFC East, but they still have the profile of a wild-card playoff team in the weaker of two conferences. Getting to 9-8 or 10-7 will happen, and it will do the trick to get into the Super Bowl 58 tournament — and anything can happen from there.
