Tyler Herro is expected to return for Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday night. The Heat are in a 3-1 hole, and it looks like they are breaking out all of their weapons.
Herro had played in only part of Game 1 of the Heat's first round series against the Bucks before breaking two fingers in his shooting hand. Will his return be enough to help the Heat compete against a dominant Nuggets team?
How the Heat overcame the loss of Herro
Herro led the team in minutes during the regular season and was slated to ramp up even more in the playoffs. Only Jimmy Butler logged more time than Herro's 39 minutes in their play-in win against the Bulls, his last full game.
Since then, the Heat have essentially redistributed Herro's minutes to Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, and Duncan Robinson.
Vincent and Martin's play was outstanding prior to the Finals. Both brought tough defense and great shot-making, but have cooled down since the Finals started.
Robinson was the biggest difference-maker though, and Herro's return has the biggest potential impact on him.
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Duncan Robinson has been a revelation in his return to the rotation
Robinson had an up-and-mostly-down season for the Heat. He was completely out of the rotation for much of the second half of the season and didn't play at all in the Heat's play-in games. Had Herro not gotten hurt, there's a good chance that Robinson would have continued to be a healthy scratch throughout the playoffs.
Robinson is obviously a supremely talented shooter, hitting 39.9 percent of his 3's for his career. But that number had fallen off to just 32.8 percent during the regular season. Mired in a deep shooting slump, it was tough to play him because of how big of a liability he also is on defense.
It's safe to say that Robinson has busted out of that slump in a big way. He's hit a scorching 44.0 percent of his 3's in the playoffs. His 10 points in the fourth quarter of Game 2 was the difference-maker in their Game 2 win.
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What do the Heat do with Duncan Robinson when Tyler Herro comes back?
Robinson and Herro do have some overlap both in their strengths (scoring) and weaknesses (defense). Can the Heat get away with playing both together? They tried it for 200 minutes during the regular season, including briefly against the Nuggets during the regular season.
Those minutes went pretty much exactly as you'd expect — per PBP Stats, the team had a scorching 118.8 offensive rating but an even worse 119.3 defensive rating.
That same phenomenon happened against the Nuggets. They were able to score well, and the Heat tried mixing in some zone to hide both of them. But they were both targeted on defense, and they were outscored in those minutes. For the most part, Erik Spoelstra has tried to stagger their minutes so only one of them is on the floor at a time.
The Heat are also hampered by how effective the Nuggets have been against their zone defense. The Heat completely went away from it in Game 4, and that had been one of their best ways of hiding bad defenders like Robinson and Herro.
Ultimately though, the Heat's best chance at winning might be to live with the defensive warts and have both of them on the floor as much as possible. They have no good options to defend Nikola Jokic anyway, so they may have to try and keep up with the Nuggets' offensive firepower in order to steal some wins.
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What Tyler Herro can add in his return to the lineup
It's important to note that the Heat haven't gotten better because of the absence of Herro. Rather, they've improved because everyone on the team has stepped up their play.
Herro was helping the Heat when he was healthy. He can still bring a ton of value upon his return. They badly need some playmaking to give Butler some breathers, who has taken on a heavy load throughout multiple grueling playoff series and two play-in games.
Herro gives them on-ball creation. He played well against this Nuggets defense during the regular season, dropping 26 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists and running the offense for large stretches. He has gotten better as a passer, although he is turnover-prone when double-teamed. And the Nuggets struggled to contain his shooting off movement and pull-up jumpers.
Herro's return gives the Heat some issues to work through, but it's a good problem to have. They are going to need all the help that they can get to pull off the upset, and Herro will give them a puncher's chance.
