Canada has produced some great basketball players, but Steve Nash is the only one to have won an MVP award.
With less than two months left in the 2023-24 regular season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a real shot at becoming the second Canadian to join that prestigious list.
Gilgeous-Alexander is still a decent underdog, at +240 to Nikola Jokic's -155 on BetMGM. His 709 voting points were also in second place to Jokic's 889 in the 100-person straw poll of league insiders conducted on Feb. 13 by ESPN's Tim Bontemps.
It might seem too late to make up that gap, but history tells us the opposite. The MVP is a largely narrative-driven award, and the winner is often determined by a late push. Joel Embiid was the front-runner in 2022 before being overtaken by Jokic. The reverse happened in 2023, with Embiid overtaking the betting favorite Jokic when his production stagnated late.
Gilgeous-Alexander could follow the same path. Here's what needs to happen for him to win the league's most prestigious hardware.
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How Shai Gilgeous-Alexander beats Nikola Jokic for MVP
Win the advanced stats argument
Voters will usually take a closer look at the impact stats as the voting draws closer to see which player had a greater effect on winning. Gilgeous-Alexander is currently leading in most of those measurements.
| Statistic | Gilgeous-Alexander | Jokic |
|---|---|---|
| Estimated Plus-Minus | +9.5 | +6.6 |
| LEBRON | +5.70 | +6.56 |
| RAPTOR | +9.8 | +8.9 |
| Win Shares | 12.1 | 12.0 |
Gilgeous-Alexander has an edge in these stats for a number of reasons. His team has won more games and by a larger scoring margin, he plays more minutes than Jokic, and his 31.2 points per game outpace Jokic's 26.1 by a healthy margin. (Jokic does have sizeable leads in rebounds and assists, though.)
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SGA must continue to put in the work defensively
Jokic has overcome the narrative that he's a poor defender. His active hands and great anticipation cover for his lack of footspeed and vertical. Still, not many are considering him a huge plus there.
Gilgeous-Alexander is undergoing a similar transformation. Although probably only the hardcore analysts notice, he wasn't a great defender for the Thunder a few years ago. That has changed.
Gilgeous-Alexander is a master at getting deflections, leading the league in that category. He's become a good weak-side rim protector, using his timing and length to alter a ton of shots. Most importantly, he has given much better effort this season, turning him into a legitimate plus defender.
Look at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on defense, man. Incredible ball denial on Anthony Edwards. pic.twitter.com/F9TetcGP0T
— Joe Viray (@JoeVirayNBA) January 30, 2024
Gilgeous-Alexander is currently leading the league at 2.1 steals per game. If he could raise his blocks per game from 0.9 to a full 1.0, he would be only the second player to average at least two steals and a block since Draymond Green did it en route to winning the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2017.
Gilgeous-Alexander is going to have an advantage over Jokic when it comes to defense. The question is how large that gap is. He has the two-way player argument that Jokic lacks.
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The Thunder need to keep winning
While the MVP award is in theory an individual award, voters often reward team success.
The Thunder have pulled off a shocking season thus far. They've improved from 24 wins two years ago to 40 last season to a projected 58 wins at their current pace. Every single win will make a difference in their final seeding.
At the All-Star break, the Thunder found themselves in second place in the West, 1.5 games behind the Wolves. The Nuggets were only 3.0 games back, in fourth place. Realistically, the top four teams (Wolves, Thunder, Clippers and Nuggets) could finish in any order.
Gilgeous-Alexander's argument for MVP could be strengthened by the fact that the Nuggets seem to be focusing much more on the playoffs than winning as many games as possible during the regular season. Denver has struggled with injuries all year, and making sure its key starters are healthy going into the postseason makes sense.
If the Nuggets stay in fourth place while the Thunder rise to No. 1, then that would make an extremely compelling argument for Gilgeous-Alexander.
The most important thing is to finish the year strong. The MVP may seem like a season-long award, but history has shown us that voters are way too prone to recency bias. The award is wide open right now. The winner will be determined by who plays better down the stretch.
