It is a brutal year to be in the Western Conference. The Warriors have won 55 percent of their games, which would have given them the No. 4 seed and home court advantage last year. This season, it has them clinging to the 10th and final spot in the Play-In Tournament.
After starting the year 25-25 and in ninth place in the West, the Lakers have ripped off a 20-9 streak. Their reward? Seventh place in the West.
There are going to be some very good teams that don't make it out of the Play-In Tournament this season — and then there are the Bulls and Hawks.
Here's who is under the most pressure to get through, from highest to lowest.
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Ranking teams with most pressure to make 2024 NBA Playoffs
1. Warriors
- Playoff probability (via Basketball-Reference): 30.1 percent
Golden State has had an extremely up-and-down season. It has battled Draymond Green drama, seen Stephen Curry both injured and slumping for parts of the year, and gotten extremely inconsistent play from Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins.
Through it all, the Warriors have actually won a ton of games. They've already clinched a Play-In berth, with a small chance that they can jump up to ninth for home court advantage in the 9/10 game, which could feature the Lakers. Either team will have to win two in a row just to make it into the playoffs, where they'll face the top seed in the West.
A Play-In loss would be a tough pill to swallow for the Warriors. They have an estimated $177 million luxury tax bill and a looming decision on Thompson's summer free agency. It feels like they're barely being held together as is. This could very well be the last gasp for the Curry-Thompson-Green core.
2. Lakers
- Playoff probability: 35.7 percent
It would stunning for the Lakers to miss the playoffs altogether after advancing to the Western Conference Finals last season. They've had much better than expected health from both LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but a slow start to the season doomed them to the position.
The good news for them is that they're obviously playoff-tested. The Lakers showed during their In-Season Tournament victory that they can crank things up a level when it matters. That is particularly true of LeBron, who has admitted that he has to choose his spots more carefully as he ages.
The big catalyst for Los Angeles has been returning to the starting lineup that guided it to that deep playoff run last season. It took Darvin Ham way too long to get there, but this team is clicking. The Lakers have been one of the best offensive teams in basketball with Rui Hachimura as a starter.
They need to capitalize on that momentum because LeBron is 39 years old. Obviously, their window is not going to stay open much longer.
3. Suns
- Playoff probability: 77.2 percent
The Suns are another very expensive team, expected to pay $68 million into the tax this season. They have blown through the second apron rules designed to prevent teams from spending, and in doing so they will have very little flexibility going forward. They've essentially emptied their coffer of trade assets and free agency additions. This is the best team that they are going to be able to build, so they need to win now.
Phoenix does have some reasons to think that might happen. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal have all been very good when available. Grayson Allen has turned into one of the best role players in the league. And Jusuf Nurkic has done his job of screening, rebounding and passing as a center.
This team lacks depth, though. Perhaps that won't matter when playoff rotations shorten. It has certainly been an issue during the regular season.
4. Kings
- Playoff probability: 66.3 percent
One season after finishing with the No. 3 seed, the Kings are taking a tiny step back. They will most likely finish in the 6-9 range, meaning they will have to win at least one Play-In game to advance to the playoffs.
Making things even tougher for the Kings is that they will be missing Kevin Huerter for the rest of the year and Malik Monk until at least early May.
If Sacramento doesn't make the playoffs, it's not the end of the world. It has had some nice storylines this year. De'Aaron Fox has continued to improve, most notably from the 3-point line where he's hitting 36.5 percent of his shots. Domantas Sabonis has set the modern-day double-double record. Keon Ellis has been a revelation as a defensive pest who can hit some 3s. Keegan Murray has developed somewhat surprisingly into a great defender to go along with his scoring.
This is still a very young team whose core is going to be around for a while. They have plenty of room to grow.
5. 76ers
- Playoff probability: 85.3 percent
What a disastrous end to the season for the Sixers. They were in third place in the East and a dark horse championship contender before Joel Embiid's meniscus injury. Since then, they've been in a total freefall. They went 8-18 during his 26-game absence and will likely be either the 7 or 8 seed.
Joel Embiid has returned to the lineup, so things are looking up. They were obviously on a roll with him. He's looked like an MVP candidate immediately upon returning, leading the Sixers to three straight wins.
With Embiid, it seems unfathomable that the Sixers will fall out of the playoffs. They are significantly better than the other teams that they will face in the Eastern Conference bracket. And they will have cap space to field an even better team next year.
6. Heat
- Playoff probability: 80.7 percent
The Heat always seem to turn things up in the playoffs. They came out of the Play-In Tournament last year and advanced all the way to the NBA Finals. They might have to do it again this year.
Jimmy Butler has been capable of carrying Miami so many times before that it would be foolish to count the Heat out. And they have some things working for them recently.
Tyler Herro has returned to their lineup, playing well after sitting for six weeks. Their young players like Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic have been very solid. And Bam Adebayo continues to look like a DPOY candidate.
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7. Pacers
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Playoff probability: 96.9 percent
The Pacers haven't been the same team since trading Buddy Hield. Doug McDermott was supposed to sop up those minutes and role. He hasn't been able to stay on the floor. They have badly missed Hield's gravity. Also, Bennedict Mathurin is out for the season with a shoulder injury.
Making things even worse is that Tyrese Haliburton has been in the biggest slump of his career. He's battled a strained hamstring that seems to have affected his pull-up jump shooting.
Indiana is starting to turn things around and getting acclimated to Pascal Siakam's game. It had big wins over the Lakers, Clippers, Warriors, Thunder (twice), Mavs and Heat over the last month. That has given the Pacers enough of a buffer to likely stay out of the Play-In.
8. Hawks
- Playoff probability: 20.0 percent
So who wants to be first-round fodder for the Celtics?
That is the best-case scenario for either the Hawks or Bulls, who have been locked into the 9/10 matchup in the East for weeks. This last string of games will determine who hosts that game, but they are for sure facing off in the Trae-In game (this year will mark the Hawks' third consecutive Play-In appearance).
The Hawks have played better of late, actually beating the Celtics twice in four days at the end of March. But this is a team that is probably going to be broken up this summer. Atlanta has been the definition of mid for the past few years. There is no pressure to do anything in the playoffs, particularly given the uncertainty around Trae Young's injury status.
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9. Bulls
- Playoff probability: 19.3 percent
Bulls' brass is feeling a lot of heat to be the Washington Generals and be the sacrificial lamb for the Celtics. They might be the only ones who care.
The Bulls have had some nice storylines. Alex Caruso has continued to be an All-Defensive player, DeMar DeRozan should win the Clutch Player of the Year, and Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu are promising young players who have taken a leap.
Platitudes aside, there is zero expectation of this team doing anything in the postseason.
